Traders Agency

SEC's Five-Year 'Innovation Exemption' Opens a Regulated Path to Tokenized U.S. Stocks

Traders Agency Team — Thu, 17 Sep 2026 13:40:13 GMT

The Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday issued an order creating a regulatory pathway for certain trading venues to issue tokenized representations of publicly traded U.S. stocks, effective immediately, according to CNBC. The measure, called the Innovation Exemption, is not a formal rulemaking but a time-limited order that the agency says is meant to let the market develop under supervision while the Commission decides whether permanent rules are needed.

What the Exemption Covers

Based on SEC Chair Paul Atkins' statement, as reported by CNBC and CoinDesk.

The exemption runs for five years and gives qualifying trading platforms and liquidity providers regulatory relief to facilitate tokenized stock trading, provided they meet specified conditions, CNBC reported. SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the tokens must carry the same rights as the underlying shares, including dividends and voting rights, according to both CNBC and CoinDesk. The SEC explicitly excluded synthetic security tokens that function as derivatives and convey no ownership of the underlying shares, a carve-out CoinDesk said may exclude the debt-instrument structures used in some offshore tokenized-equity products, including Robinhood's.

Notably, venues do not need formal SEC designation to use the relief. CoinDesk reported that any platform believing it meets the SEC's definition and conditions need only provide notice before opening a tokenization operation, rather than seeking individual approval.

Issuer Veto and Volume Caps

The order builds in a mechanism for companies to block tokenization of their own stock. A trading platform must notify the company of its intent to tokenize the shares and then wait 30 days after the company receives that notice before trading can begin, an SEC spokesperson told CNBC. If the company objects within that 30-day window, the venue cannot list the tokenized stock. The order also includes volume limits that the SEC says are intended to mitigate potential risks and major price swings, per CNBC, which did not report the specific numerical thresholds.

Why the SEC Moved Now

The order landed two days after the Clarity Act, the crypto market-structure bill that would have set federal rules for classifying and regulating digital assets including tokenized securities, failed to advance in the Senate, CNBC reported. With Congress unable to act, the Commission is using its existing authority to define the boundary itself. Atkins framed the move as an interim step, not a permanent verdict on technology: "The Commission is not cementing today's technology as the standard for tomorrow," he said in a statement carried by CNBC, adding that the exemption "is allowing the market to evolve, monitoring its development, and using that insight to inform a nimbler and future-ready regulatory framework." CoinDesk quoted Atkins saying the measure "must be followed by durable rulemaking to ensure that onchain markets remain a viable pathway as our capital markets continue to evolve."

The exemption is part of the SEC's "Project Crypto" initiative launched last year to bring U.S. financial markets onchain, CNBC noted. It also follows an earlier interpretive release in March, jointly issued by the SEC and CFTC after the two agencies signed a memorandum of understanding to harmonize their frameworks, which established a five-category taxonomy for crypto assets covering digital commodities, digital collectibles, digital tools, stablecoins and digital securities, according to a Gibson Dunn securities enforcement update.

The AMC-Robinhood Dispute Behind the Issuer Veto

The issuer-consent requirement traces to a public dispute between the CEOs of Robinhood and AMC over Robinhood's stock-token model, CNBC reported. AMC CEO Adam Aron argued that creating exposure to AMC stock without the issuing company's involvement undermines the traditional relationship between companies and their shareholders. Robinhood said this week it is moving to address those concerns by letting stock-token holders redeem tokens for the underlying shares on a 1:1 basis and by adding voting rights, according to CNBC.

An SEC spokesperson told CNBC the Commission has held discussions with issuers and that, despite lingering concerns, feedback suggests growing optimism that tokenization will be adopted in some form.

Market Structure and Risk Considerations

Coinbase, Robinhood, Gemini and Payward's Kraken exchange have already launched tokenized equity offerings offshore but have not offered them to U.S. customers, CNBC reported. With greater adoption, tokenization could change how securities are traded and settled, potentially enabling 24/7 trading and allowing tokenized assets to integrate more easily with blockchain-based financial infrastructure, CNBC wrote. The outlet also flagged potential drawbacks, including increased volatility and greater exposure to large price swings when trading activity is thinner.

Bottom Line

The Innovation Exemption gives the SEC a five-year window to let tokenized-stock trading develop in what Atkins called a permissioned environment rather than through formal rulemaking, pairing an issuer objection right and volume caps with a notice-based entry process for venues. Atkins has been explicit that the order is a bridge to what he described as durable rulemaking, not a final settlement of how onchain equity markets should work — and the SEC's announcement, as reported by CNBC and CoinDesk, did not detail how custody, settlement and market-integrity oversight will ultimately be handled.

DISCLAIMER: Traders Agency does not offer financial advice. The information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Traders Agency is not responsible for any financial losses or consequences resulting from the use of the information provided. Trading carries inherent risks and may not be suitable for all individuals. You are advised to conduct your own research and seek personalized advice before making any investment decisions, recognizing the potential risks and rewards involved.

Earnings Quality: Detecting Accounting Red Flags

Traders Agency Team — Thu, 17 Sep 2026 13:13:59 GMT

Nothing ruins a good thesis faster than an earnings restatement. One filing drops, the stock gaps down 30%, and there's no chance to manage the position. We've watched too many traders get caught on the wrong side of that headline, which is why we teach earnings quality analysis as a defensive skill first and an edge second.

Accounting red flags are warning signs in a company's financial statements that suggest reported earnings don't reflect real economic performance. They show up as gaps between reported profit and actual cash generated, unusual revenue patterns, or aggressive classification of expenses. Spotting them early can mean exiting a position months before the market catches on.

In this guide, we'll walk you through the quantitative tools our team uses to catch these signals before they become news: the accrual ratio, cash-to-earnings divergence, common revenue recognition tricks, and the Beneish M-score. By the end, you'll know how to pull the raw numbers yourself from a 10-K or 10-Q, calculate two professional-grade detection metrics, and interpret them correctly by sector.

What Are Accounting Red Flags in Financial Statements?

Bottom Line: Accounting red flags rarely appear out of nowhere: they build quietly through rising accruals, cash-earnings gaps, and revenue timing tricks well before a restatement hits the tape. Traders who check the accrual ratio and Beneish M-score against sector norms can spot deteriorating earnings quality months ahead of the market and exit before the headline risk materializes.

Accounting red flags are inconsistencies between a company's reported earnings and the underlying economic reality of its business, most often visible in the gap between net income and operating cash flow. They appear across all three statements, and recognizing them early is a core skill in financial statement analysis.

These signals matter because reported earnings involve judgment. Management chooses when to recognize revenue, how to classify expenses, and how to estimate reserves. Most of the time those choices are reasonable. Sometimes they're stretched to hit a number.

Statement	What the Red Flags Look Like
Balance sheet	Ballooning receivables, inventory growing faster than sales, debt reclassified to keep leverage ratios looking clean
Income statement	One-time gains dressed up as recurring revenue, operating expenses pushed below the operating line
Cash flow statement	Operating cash flow flattening while net income rises, heavy reliance on working capital swings

We weight cash flow statement red flags most heavily. Cash is significantly harder to manipulate than accruals, so when the cash statement and the income statement disagree, we trust the cash.

Key Concept: Earnings are an opinion. Cash is a fact. Every technique in this guide is ultimately a way of measuring how far a company's opinion has drifted from the facts.

How Do You Calculate and Interpret the Accrual Ratio?

The accrual ratio measures the portion of reported earnings that comes from non-cash accounting adjustments rather than actual cash flow. A rising accrual ratio over consecutive quarters is one of the most tested predictors of future earnings disappointments and downward analyst revisions.

Here's the calculation we use, step by step:

Step 1: Pull net income from the income statement in the 10-Q or 10-K.
Step 2: Pull operating cash flow from the top section of the cash flow statement in the same filing.
Step 3: Pull total assets from the balance sheet. Average total assets across the period also works, as long as you stay consistent.
Step 4: Apply the formula. Accrual Ratio = (Net Income − Operating Cash Flow) ÷ Total Assets.
Step 5: Repeat for the last eight quarters so you can see the trend rather than a single snapshot. The trend is the signal.

Reading the Number

Accrual Ratio	Interpretation
Below 1%	Generally healthy, earnings are cash-backed
1% to 3%	Normal range for most industries, worth monitoring
3% to 5%	Elevated, warrants a closer look at receivables and inventory
Above 5%	A serious red flag requiring investigation before you touch the stock

Illustrative Accrual Ratio And Cash Conversion By Sector, Traders Agency (Illustrative sector benchmarks)

Notice that technology and healthcare companies naturally run higher accrual ratios than utilities or consumer staples. Software firms recognize revenue on contracts before cash arrives, and biotech firms treat research costs differently than a stable, capital-intensive utility. A 4% accrual ratio might be a genuine warning for a utility and completely normal for a growth-stage software company.

Watch Out: Sector context is not optional here. Comparing a software company's accrual ratio to a utility's is the fastest way to generate false alarms and talk yourself out of good positions.

Cash-to-Earnings Divergence as a Warning Sign

Cash-to-earnings divergence occurs when reported net income keeps climbing while operating cash flow flattens or declines. This gap is often the earliest visible symptom of earnings management, often visible several quarters before analysts or the broader market react.

Walking Through an Example

Say a mid-cap industrial company reports the following pattern across eight consecutive quarters:

Metric	Starting Point	Eight Quarters Later
Operating cash flow conversion (OCF ÷ net income)	112%	68%
Accrual ratio	0.5%	6.2%
Reported net income	Growing	Still growing every quarter

Cash Flow Conversion Weakens As Accruals Rise, Traders Agency (Illustrative)

That's the setup that gets traders hurt. Net income looks fine on the headline, so the stock keeps grinding higher while the quality of those earnings quietly erodes underneath.

A cash conversion ratio above 100% means the company collects more cash than it books as profit, which is the healthiest pattern you can find. Once that ratio drops meaningfully below 80% while net income keeps rising, we treat it as a serious red flag. We pull this data straight from the cash flow statement and income statement in each quarterly filing, and we track it on a rolling eight-quarter basis rather than reacting to any single period.

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Revenue Recognition Tricks Companies Use to Inflate Earnings

Revenue recognition manipulation is one of the most common categories of SEC enforcement action against issuers, and the techniques repeat themselves decade after decade. Companies pull forward future sales, book revenue before delivery is complete, or record revenue on transactions with side agreements that effectively reverse the sale.

These are the four patterns we screen for most often:

Channel stuffing: shipping excess inventory to distributors near quarter-end to book revenue early.
Bill-and-hold arrangements: recognizing revenue before the customer actually receives the goods.
Round-tripping: two companies exchange similar-value transactions to inflate both top lines.
Percentage-of-completion abuse: overestimating project completion on long-term contracts to accelerate revenue recognition.

The single most useful screen for all four is comparing accounts receivable growth against revenue growth. If receivables consistently grow faster than sales, either customers aren't paying or the "sales" aren't real yet. Both outcomes end the same way.

Receivables Growth Outpaces Reported Revenue Growth, Traders Agency (Illustrative)

Why Does Capitalizing vs Expensing Matter?

Whether a company capitalizes a cost (spreading it over years as an asset) or expenses it immediately (hitting current earnings) has an enormous effect on reported profitability. This is one of the more subtle categories of red flags because it's technically permitted under GAAP, just applied aggressively.

Watch for companies that capitalize costs their peers expense: software development, contract and customer acquisition costs, or routine maintenance are the usual suspects. Doing so inflates current earnings and total assets at the same time while pushing the true cost into future periods.

Our practical test is simple. Compare the company's capitalization policy footnote against two or three direct competitors from the same filing period. If one company capitalizes what the others expense, its margins will look artificially superior, and that gap tends to close eventually, usually through a write-down that nobody has modeled.

How Do You Use the Beneish M-Score to Detect Manipulation?

The Beneish M-score is a statistical model built from eight financial ratios that estimates the probability a company has manipulated its earnings. It remains one of the most widely used quantitative tools in forensic accounting work, and it's straightforward enough to build in a spreadsheet.

The eight inputs are the Days Sales in Receivables Index, Gross Margin Index, Asset Quality Index, Sales Growth Index, Depreciation Index, SGA Index, Leverage Index, and Total Accruals to Total Assets. Each one compares the current period against a prior baseline, so you need two years of filings to run it.

Key Concept: An M-score above −1.78 signals an elevated probability of earnings manipulation. Scores below that threshold fall in the normal range. Because the score is negative, "above" means closer to zero.

Beneish M-Score Moving Above The Manipulation Warning Threshold, Traders Agency (Illustrative)

In the illustration above, an M-score climbing from −2.45 to −1.42 and crossing the −1.78 line would have flagged deteriorating earnings quality well before any price weakness showed up on the chart. We calculate it quarterly for any position where the accrual ratio is already elevated, and we treat it as a confirmation tool rather than a standalone trigger.

How Do Accounting Red Flags Differ Across Sectors?

Red flags don't carry equal weight across industries, because different business models generate different natural accrual and cash flow patterns. A metric that screams manipulation in a utility can be routine growth accounting in software or biotech.

Utilities and consumer staples: tight, predictable cash conversion because revenue is recurring and receivables are short-cycle. Any accrual buildup here deserves immediate attention.
Technology and healthcare: naturally higher accrual ratios from R&D treatment, deferred revenue accounting, and longer contract cycles.
Financials: require an entirely separate framework, since loan loss reserves and mark-to-market accounting distort a standard accrual ratio calculation.

This is why we always benchmark a company's accrual ratio and cash conversion against direct sector peers rather than a market-wide average. A troubled retailer's financials look nothing like a troubled pharmaceutical company's.

What Are the Three Golden Rules of Accounting?

The three golden rules come from traditional double-entry bookkeeping, and they govern how debits and credits get recorded across personal, real, and nominal accounts:

Personal accounts: debit the receiver, credit the giver.
Real accounts: debit what comes in, credit what goes out.
Nominal accounts: debit expenses and losses, credit income and gains.

Worth understanding, though, is that most of the red flags in this guide don't involve broken double-entry mechanics at all. The books still balance. The distortion comes from timing choices, estimates, and how a transaction gets classified once it enters the ledger. You don't need to be an accountant to trade well, but knowing where those classification decisions get made tells you where to look.

Practical Application: When to Act on Red Flags

We use these tools as filters, not automatic sell signals. A single elevated accrual ratio doesn't mean fraud. It means "look closer."

When to Escalate a Position Review

Accrual ratio above 5% for two or more consecutive quarters
Beneish M-score crossing above −1.78
Receivables growth outpacing revenue growth by a wide margin for three straight quarters
Auditor changes or late filings appearing alongside any of the above

Our position sizing rule is straightforward: we size down, not out, when a single red flag appears, and we exit entirely when two or more converge. That keeps us from abandoning good positions on noise while still protecting capital when the evidence stacks up.

Watch Out: The four mistakes we see most often are treating one quarter of divergence as confirmed manipulation, comparing accrual ratios across unrelated sectors, ignoring footnotes on capitalization policy changes, and relying on the M-score without checking the cash flow statement yourself.

Pull your raw data from the 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings on EDGAR, the SEC's public filing database. That's the primary source behind every ratio in this guide, and it's free.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the five types of errors in accounting?
Errors of omission, errors of commission, compensating errors, errors of principle, and errors of duplication. Only some relate to intentional manipulation. Most are simple bookkeeping mistakes that don't qualify as red flags.

What are red flags when hiring a CPA?
Reluctance to sign returns, guaranteed refund promises, fee structures based on refund size, and no verifiable PTIN. These are unrelated to earnings quality analysis, but they follow the same "look for the inconsistency" principle.

What are the top ten accounting red flags?
Rising accrual ratios, weak cash conversion, receivables outpacing sales, aggressive capitalization, frequent auditor changes, related-party transactions, restated financials, unusual fourth-quarter revenue spikes, off-balance-sheet financing, and Beneish M-scores above −1.78.

What does "red flag" mean in trading terms?
Any data point in a company's financial statements suggesting reported results don't match underlying economic reality, prompting deeper investigation before you commit capital.

Where do I find the data to calculate these ratios myself?
Net income, operating cash flow, and total assets all come directly from the 10-K or 10-Q filed on EDGAR. Most brokerage screeners also carry cash flow and accrual data pre-calculated if you want a faster first pass before verifying the numbers yourself.

Our education team publishes new strategy guides and market analysis every week.

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Money Is POURING Into These 3 Stocks 💰

Ross Givens — Thu, 17 Sep 2026 12:54:02 GMT

Hey, Ross here:

Money is pouring into shipping stocks right now, and the data backs it up. If you're hunting for shipping stocks to buy, three names deserve your attention immediately: DHT Holdings, Teekay Tankers, and Frontline. All three are ripping to new highs while the broader shipping sector outranks nearly every other corner of the market on my industry strength readings.

This isn't a guess or a hunch. It's what the numbers show across multiple timeframes. When a sector keeps showing up near the top of the leaderboard month after month, that's where the dollars are flowing.

Below is exactly what the data says, which shipping stocks I'm watching, and where I'm looking to enter.

What Is a Shipping Stock?

Bottom Line: Shipping stocks like DHT Holdings, Teekay Tankers, and Frontline are climbing because the shipping sector ranks near the top of industry strength readings across multiple timeframes, showing money is flowing in. The suggested approach is not to chase the rally, but to wait for a pullback into the zone between the 10-day and 20-day moving average before buying.

A shipping stock represents ownership in a company that transports goods, oil, or other commodities across the water using tankers and cargo vessels. These companies make money by chartering out their ships, and their profitability rises and falls with global shipping rates and demand for seaborne transport.

Right now, shipping stocks get grouped together and measured against every other sector through industry strength indicators, which track which areas of the market are rising the fastest across different time periods. When shipping keeps showing up at or near the top of that list, capital is rotating into the sector, not out of it.

That's exactly what's happening today.

Why Is Shipping Leading the Market?

Six timeframes. Same answer every time.

My industry strength indicator graphs which areas of the market, measured by their ETFs, are rising the most over various time periods. The idea is straightforward. If an area continues to outperform over one, two, three, and six month periods, that's leading. That's where the dollars are going. That's where you want to focus.

Shipping leads sector performance over the one-month period

Here's how shipping ranks right now:

Number one over the 1-month period
Number two over the 2-month period
Number two over the 3-month period
On the list for the 6-month period
Number two over 9 months, and still on the 12-month list

That kind of consistency across nearly every timeframe is rare. Shipping isn't a one-week pop. It's a sector that has been quietly building strength for the better part of a year.

BOAT, the shipping ETF, continues to trend higher

The ETF I use to track the group is BOAT, the shipping ETF. There was a big run up leading into this year. From there it compressed. I thought it was going to run, then it took a little dip over the summer. It came ripping back, broke clean through resistance, and has continued to surge higher ever since.

BOAT ETF breaks through resistance and continues to surge higher

That breakout is the signal. When a shipping stocks ETF like BOAT clears resistance and keeps climbing, the individual names inside it tend to follow.

Are Shipping Stocks Good Investments?

Shipping deserves serious consideration right now because the sector is showing sustained relative strength across nearly every measured timeframe, from one month out to twelve. That consistency is a strong signal that capital is actively rotating into the group rather than just passing through.

I don't chase sectors based on a single good week. When I'm screening for shipping stocks to buy, I want confirmation across multiple timeframes, and shipping has delivered it. Ranking first or second over one, two, three, and nine months while still appearing on the twelve month list isn't noise. That's a trend with staying power.

Whether shipping stocks are "good investments" for you depends on your strategy and your risk tolerance. From a pure momentum standpoint, this is one of the strongest groups in the market.

What Are the Best Shipping Stocks to Buy Right Now?

I like to focus on the leaders, and there are three stocks leading this group: DHT Holdings (DHT), Teekay Tankers (TNK), and Frontline (FRO). All three are at their highs, ripping up the right side of their charts.

DHT Holdings (DHT) trading at its highs

When a sector is surging, the strongest individual names inside it tend to keep outperforming the rest of the pack. That's exactly what's happening here. DHT is one of the clearest leaders in the group. TNK is riding the same wave. And FRO is absolutely surging, carrying a relative strength rating of 98 out of 100.

Sit with that number for a second. A 98 out of 100 means almost nothing else trading right now is moving faster. When a stock inside an already-leading sector posts a reading like that, it tells you exactly where the strongest momentum is concentrated.

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Where Should You Look to Buy Shipping Stocks?

The zone between the 10 and 20 day

If you're going to buy shipping stocks, the smarter question isn't "should I." It's when and where to enter. Chasing a stock after it has already ripped up the right side of the chart is the most common mistake there is.

I keep four moving averages on every chart I trade. With DHT, TNK, and FRO, the zone I care about is the space between the 10-day and 20-day moving average, specifically when the 10-day is trading above the 20-day. That shaded area on the way up is where I want to buy.

A potential buy zone for Teekay Tankers (TNK) based on moving average support.

This kind of pullback entry matters more in a fast-moving group. These stocks aren't drifting sideways. They're surging, and surging stocks pull back to their short-term averages before continuing higher more often than people expect.

Shipping Stocks and Dividends

My work here is built around price momentum and technical entries, not dividend yield, so I won't put a number on payouts. If you're specifically hunting for the best shipping stocks with dividends, go straight to each company's own SEC filings and investor relations pages for current figures before making a decision.

The momentum case for DHT, TNK, and FRO stands on its own, independent of any dividend story. Relative strength and sector rotation are what have my attention.

Is Shipping a Growing Industry?

Based on the industry strength data, shipping is one of the strongest performing areas of the market, ranking first or second across nearly every measured timeframe from one month to twelve. That level of sustained outperformance is a clear signal of capital flowing into the group.

The BOAT chart tells the same story. A big run up into this year, a period of compression, a dip over the summer, then a clean break through resistance and a continued surge higher. That's not a one-off spike. That's a sector building a real trend.

Whether shipping keeps growing over the long run is a bigger question than any single indicator can answer. But in terms of where money is actively moving today, shipping is one of the leaders.

The Numbers I'm Watching

Shipping ranks number one over one month, number two over two months, number two over three months, stays on the list at six months, ranks number two over nine months, and still shows up on the twelve month list. BOAT has broken through resistance and continued surging. DHT, TNK, and FRO are the three individual leaders inside the group, with FRO carrying a relative strength rating of 98 out of 100.

That combination of sector-wide strength and individual stock leadership is exactly the setup I look for before committing capital.

Three Shipping Leaders on My List

The three names leading this momentum move are DHT Holdings (DHT), Teekay Tankers (TNK), and Frontline (FRO). All three are at their highs and climbing as the broader sector strengthens.

FRO (Frontline) stock surging with a steep upward trend

These aren't names picked out of a hat. They're the leaders inside a sector already outranking most of the market, and Frontline in particular stands out with that 98 out of 100 reading. If you're building a shortlist of shipping stocks to buy, these three marine names belong at the top of it.

A relative strength rating of 98 out of 100 means outperforming 98% of the market

Buy or Sell Right Now?

Whether a shipping stock is a buy depends entirely on where it sits relative to its short-term moving averages. DHT, TNK, and FRO are all trading near their highs, and the entry I favor is a pullback into the zone between the 10-day and 20-day, not a chase after an extended move higher.

You'll find plenty of opinions on shipping stocks floating around Reddit and elsewhere. The technical setup matters more than forum chatter. With the sector this strong and these three names leading it, the real question is where to time your entry so you're not buying the top of a short-term extension.

Final Thoughts

Shipping is one of the strongest sectors in the market right now, and the data across nearly every timeframe backs that up. The BOAT breakout confirms it at the sector level. DHT, TNK, and FRO confirm it at the individual stock level, with FRO's 98 relative strength rating standing out as one of the strongest readings you'll find anywhere.

I'm not chasing these names blindly. I'm waiting for pullbacks into that zone between the 10-day and 20-day moving average, because that's the higher-probability spot to buy stocks already trending hard.

Start with the leaders. Confirm the trend with sector-wide data. Then wait for your entry instead of chasing a move that's already extended.

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Lucid and Bolt Unveil European Robotaxi Plan Targeting 25,000 Autonomous Vehicles on Nvidia Hyperion

Traders Agency Team — Thu, 17 Sep 2026 12:53:51 GMT

Lucid Group and European shared-mobility platform Bolt announced a strategic partnership on Sept. 17, 2026, to develop and deploy autonomous mobility services across Europe. Under the agreement, Bolt aims to deploy at least 25,000 fully autonomous Lucid vehicles across multiple European cities and countries, built on Lucid's upcoming Midsize platform and Nvidia's Hyperion autonomous-vehicle reference architecture, according to Lucid's announcement.

What the companies announced

Illustrative scene; based on Lucid and Bolt's Sept. 17, 2026 announcement

The partnership calls for Lucid and Bolt to work together from the product-development stage on an autonomous driving system (ADS)-ready vehicle platform designed for SAE Level 4 autonomous mobility, per the release. The vehicles are expected to use Nvidia Hyperion, described in the announcement as a production-ready autonomous-vehicle reference architecture combining high-performance compute with a standardized sensor suite. The release does not name a specific autonomous-driving software supplier, stating only that Lucid and Bolt will work with unnamed autonomous-driving technology partners as well as European regulators and policymakers to support what it calls the safe, secure and scalable introduction of autonomous mobility services across the region.

Bolt intends to own and operate the fleet through a dedicated unit, Bolt Autonomous Driving Solutions, which will build the fleet infrastructure, operating systems and city partnerships needed to deploy the vehicles at scale. On Lucid's side, the program will be led by the newly established Lucid Technologies unit, which brings together the company's artificial intelligence, ADAS, autonomy and broader digital functions under one structure, according to the release.

Lucid CEO Silvio Napoli said shared autonomous mobility offers an opportunity to extend the company's technology beyond consumer vehicles, calling Bolt's reach and operating expertise an ideal fit to scale autonomous mobility across Europe. Bolt founder and CEO Markus Villig said autonomous driving in Europe requires data, software, vehicles and operations to work as one system built for European roads and regulation, and pointed to Bolt's data and more than a decade of operating experience across over 850 cities as the basis for co-designing the vehicle and software with Lucid, per the same release.

Scale of the target, and what remains unconfirmed

Source: Lucid Group / Bolt announcement, Sept. 17, 2026

Bolt's own scale is substantial: the company operates in over 50 countries and 850 cities, serves more than 200 million customers, and has more than 4.5 million drivers and couriers using its platform, according to the announcement. The 25,000-vehicle target is framed in the release as a step toward Bolt's broader ambition of putting 100,000 autonomous vehicles on its platform by 2035. Using those two disclosed figures, the initial deployment target equals 25% of the 2035 ambition (25,000 ÷ 100,000 × 100), an arithmetic comparison of the companies' own numbers rather than an independent projection.

The announcement does not disclose a purchase order, minimum volume commitment, prepayment or other financial terms attached to the 25,000-vehicle target. Lucid's forward-looking-statements disclosure in the release explicitly lists “Bolt's targeted deployment of autonomous vehicles on its platform” as a forward-looking statement, cautioning that such statements are not intended to serve as, and must not be relied on as, a guarantee, assurance or definitive statement of fact or probability. In other words, by Lucid's own characterization, the 25,000 figure is a target rather than a contracted or funded order.

Timeline details are similarly limited in the release: it does not specify a first-market launch date, a production start for Lucid's Midsize platform, or which European regulatory approvals the partners still need to secure for Level 4 operation beyond the general statement that they intend to work with regulators and policymakers.

Lucid's existing autonomy footprint

Illustrative scene; based on Lucid's Q2 2026 results release

The Bolt partnership adds a second geography to Lucid's autonomy push. In the U.S., Lucid already has a robotaxi program with Uber and Nuro that was in active testing and validation as of its second-quarter 2026 results, supported by a fleet of nearly 100 vehicles across the San Francisco Bay Area and Houston, with production-validation Lucid Gravity units already delivered to Nuro, according to Lucid's second-quarter 2026 results release. That same release showed Lucid producing 4,774 vehicles and delivering 3,953 in the quarter, up 24% and 19% year over year respectively, though the company said production was intentionally reduced to lower inventory and free up cash. Subtracting those two disclosed figures (4,774 − 3,953) leaves an 821-vehicle gap between production and deliveries for the quarter. Neither release ties these production figures to the new Bolt program or specifies capital spending or revenue-recognition plans for the European deployment.

The wider European robotaxi landscape

Bolt's move with Lucid follows an earlier autonomy partnership the company signed with Chinese robotaxi operator Pony.ai, set to begin on Bolt's ride-hailing platform in 2026 and expand across both EU and non-EU markets, according to reporting from Eleport. That indicates Bolt is pursuing autonomy through more than one technology supplier rather than relying solely on Lucid and Nvidia Hyperion.

Coverage of the broader sector from Driving Vision News notes that Europe's robotaxi market remains behind the U.S. and China in commercial driverless fleet size, with much of 2026's activity still consisting of supervised trials rather than fully driverless service. In Zagreb, for example, riders can currently request an autonomous vehicle through Uber using Pony.ai technology and a fleet operated by Verne, but a licensed operator still monitors the vehicle from behind the wheel, so the service is not yet driverless, per that outlet's reporting. Separate commentary published by Yahoo Finance cautions that the revenue model, regulatory environment and consumer appetite for robotaxi services remain uncertain across the sector, while Driving Vision News adds that regulation, local fleet partners and city-level operations will ultimately decide which announcements become actual public services.

Bottom Line

Lucid and Bolt have set a public target of at least 25,000 autonomous vehicles across Europe, built around Lucid's Midsize platform and Nvidia Hyperion, but the companies' own release frames that number as a forward-looking target rather than a signed order, with no disclosed purchase commitment, financial terms, launch date or confirmed regulatory pathway. Readers weighing the announcement's significance should note that it sits alongside Lucid's existing, further-along U.S. robotaxi testing with Uber and Nuro, and within a European market where Driving Vision News reports that most current robotaxi rides still require a licensed human operator on board.

Huawei Pulls Ascend 960DT Forward to Q1 2027, Says AI Chip Demand Outstrips Its Capacity

Traders Agency Team — Thu, 17 Sep 2026 12:28:42 GMT

Huawei told attendees at its Huawei Connect conference in Shanghai on Sept 17, 2026 that it is accelerating the rollout of its flagship Ascend 960DT AI chip and that Chinese demand for its AI computing hardware already exceeds what it can produce, a constraint the company says is limiting how aggressively it can sell overseas, according to The Edge Malaysia's carriage of the Reuters dispatch and Business Times.

Roadmap Pulled Forward

Rotating chairman Wang Tao said the Ascend 960DT chip, originally slated for late 2027, will now be ready in the first quarter of 2027, three quarters earlier than previously planned, according to The Edge Malaysia's report of the Reuters dispatch and Business Times. A companion variant, the 960PR, is now due in the third quarter of 2027, one quarter ahead of its earlier schedule. Huawei also outlined an annual cadence beyond that, with the Ascend 970 due in 2028 and the Ascend 980 in 2029, and said each new generation is expected to roughly double the compute of its predecessor, per Business Times and WTOP's account of the event.

Alongside the chips, Huawei unveiled a computing architecture it calls Peerium, designed eventually to let as many as 1 million processors operate together as a single system, with its UnifiedBus protocol connecting processors, memory, storage and networking. Huawei said the new Ascend 960 supernode would connect as many as 4,096 AI processors, per The Edge Malaysia's carriage of the Reuters dispatch. Bloomberg reported, as relayed by Business Times, that Huawei's SuperPod connectivity technology will soon allow clusters of as many as 100,000 Ascend chips, enabling faster data transmission via UnifiedBus. Huawei justified that scaling push by saying clusters of about 100,000 chips have become standard for training some of the largest AI models, and that communication between machines can consume more than 40% of training time in conventional server systems, according to the same report.

Demand Outstrips Supply, Limiting Overseas Sales

Epoch AI estimate, Sept 4, 2026: breakdown of ~1.5 million Ascend chips Huawei is projected to produce in 2026, by model and memory source.

The most consequential line from the event concerned capacity rather than performance. Rotating chairman Eric Xu told reporters at the conference that Huawei cannot produce enough artificial-intelligence computing equipment to meet demand in China and is therefore limiting overseas sales, according to The Edge Malaysia's carriage of the Reuters dispatch. "Since we don't have enough capacity to even satisfy the demand in China, we don't have a plan to expand into the international market in a fully-fledged way," Xu said, adding that Huawei supplies some countries where demand is particularly strong but that volumes remain limited. Bloomberg has reported that the company is exploring foreign markets including Malaysia and Egypt, per Business Times.

That tightness is already showing up in pricing. Business Times reported that Huawei recently raised pricing for the Ascend 950DT chip by 60%, citing tight component supply in communications with customers. The same report said DeepSeek plans to deploy at least 160,000 Ascend 950DT chips at a data centre it is building in Inner Mongolia.

Xu also said reliable data on Nvidia's share of China's AI chip market was difficult to obtain, but added: "I think Ascend market share should be bigger than Nvidia's." Huawei did not provide data to support that estimate, The Edge Malaysia reported, which also noted that Nvidia retains a major advantage in software through its widely used CUDA platform and that the US chipmaker did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Several questions went unanswered. Per Business Times, Wang did not address how Huawei will navigate manufacturing bottlenecks and ramp up production to meet demand, and spent little time discussing the capabilities of the new chips marketed for training. Independent research firm Epoch AI, in a Sept 4, 2026 analysis, estimated Huawei would produce 1.5 million AI chip units in 2026 against 5.9 million for Nvidia — a gap of 4.4 million units, or roughly 74.6% below Nvidia (1.5 - 5.9 = -4.4; (1.5 - 5.9) / 5.9 x 100 = -74.6%) — and put Huawei's 2026 AI compute output at less than 4% of Nvidia's. Epoch AI identified high-bandwidth memory as the binding constraint, estimating that only about 240,000 of those 1.5 million units use domestic HBM while about 750,000 use less advanced non-HBM memory, with CXMT and the smaller XMC only beginning to ramp HBM production. On the foundry side, Epoch AI noted the 950 and 960 compute dies are fabricated on SMIC's N+3 process, and that export controls on advanced lithography leave SMIC unable to print transistors denser than a 5 nm-equivalent process until at least the end of the decade.

Interpretation, tied to the evidence above: a three-quarter pull-forward on the 960DT changes the roadmap date, not the supply picture Huawei itself describes. With Xu saying domestic demand cannot be met, Huawei repricing the 950DT 60% higher on component tightness, and Epoch AI pointing to HBM and SMIC lithography limits, an earlier launch date is best read as a competitive signal rather than evidence of near-term volume relief. Morgan Stanley analyst Charlie Chan wrote in a recent research note that "System-level competitiveness matters more than ever" and that "The effective gap is narrowing through multi-die design, advanced packaging, rack-scale system architecture, optical networking, and software-hardware co-optimisation" — a framing that fits Huawei's emphasis on Peerium and large clusters over single-chip performance. George Chen of The Asia Group told WTOP the timing, "less than two weeks before President Xi Jinping's visit to Washington - underscores Beijing's confidence and ambition in technology and innovation"; WTOP reported a Trump-Xi meeting was expected in Washington on Sept 24.

Bottom Line

Huawei moved its flagship Ascend 960DT into the first quarter of 2027, three quarters earlier than planned, and extended an annual cadence through the Ascend 970 in 2028 and Ascend 980 in 2029, per The Edge Malaysia's carriage of the Reuters dispatch, Business Times and WTOP. But the company's own executives framed capacity, not silicon design, as the limiting factor: Xu said Huawei cannot meet Chinese demand and is holding back international expansion, and Business Times reported management left manufacturing bottlenecks and production ramp plans unaddressed. Nothing in the sourced material quantifies how much 960-series output Huawei can actually deliver in 2027.

Bank of England Holds Rate at 3.75% in 6-3 Split as August Inflation Jumps to 3.1%

Traders Agency Team — Thu, 17 Sep 2026 12:12:21 GMT

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 on September 16 to leave Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%, resisting pressure to follow other major central banks higher even as UK inflation climbed to 3.1% in August, its first reading above 3% since March. Three MPC members pushed for an immediate quarter-point increase to 4%, and Governor Andrew Bailey warned that a hike is becoming more likely the longer an energy-driven price shock persists, according to CNBC.

The Vote and the Dissents

Bank Rate held at 3.75% versus the 4% level three MPC members voted for, September 16, 2026 (Trading Economics).

The 6-3 split matched the dissent count from the Bank's July meeting, according to Trading Economics' summary of the decision. The three members who voted for tightening set out distinct reasoning. Catherine L. Mann argued that upside inflation risks had increased since July, pointing to the Bank's own short-term forecast showing CPI rising above 4% in early 2027, and said that "raising Bank Rate is a better risk-management strategy when faced with uncertainty about inflation dynamics and second-round effects," per CNBC's reporting. Megan Greene cited uncertainty over second-round effects from the Iran war, AI-related supply constraints and the El Niño climate event as inflationary risks. Huw Pill argued an immediate move would have sent a "clear signal of the MPC's commitment to achieving its price stability mandate amidst the fog of geopolitical conflict and data noise," adding that acting decisively would head off inflationary pressures "rather having to reverse them once they become ingrained."

The gap between the rate the majority held (3.75%) and the level the dissenters preferred (4%) is 0.25 percentage points, leaving the held rate roughly 6.25% below the preferred level in relative terms (our calculation: 3.75 minus 4, divided by 4). Interpretation: that is a modest numerical distance, but it reflects a real split on the Committee over how long the current inflation overshoot will run.

Inflation Pressures and the Energy Shock

The MPC, in a decision summary reported by Trading Economics, attributed the rise in CPI inflation to 3.1% in August largely to prolonged conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed crude and refined energy prices higher and increased volatility. The Office for National Statistics said the spike was largely driven by motor fuel costs, which surged 23% year-on-year, per CNBC. The Committee said further increases in inflation are expected in coming quarters, though it noted only limited evidence so far of significant second-round effects on wages and prices, a risk that "could increase if energy costs remain elevated," per the same summary.

Bailey framed the policy calculus directly: "So far, higher global energy costs have had a limited effect on price and wage setting in the U.K. But the longer this volatility persists, the bigger the impact it will have on inflation, and the more likely it is we will need to raise Bank Rate to ensure that inflation falls back to our 2% target," he said in a statement reported by CNBC.

At 3.1%, inflation sits 1.1 percentage points above the Bank's 2% target, a gap of 55% in relative terms (our calculation: 3.1 minus 2, divided by 2), based on the figure reported by ABC News. ABC News also reported that many economists expect inflation to rise further from that level in coming months as households face another increase in domestic energy bills beginning in October, and that the market consensus is for a rate rise at either the November or December meeting.

Market Reaction

Gilt yields fell immediately after the decision, according to CNBC, with the benchmark 10-year yield down 4 basis points to 5.2473% and the 30-year yield down about 7 basis points to 5.7932%. That left the 10-year yield 0.5459 percentage points, or about 9.4%, below the 30-year (our calculation: 5.2473 minus 5.7932, divided by 5.7932). CNBC also reported that Britain has the highest borrowing costs in the G7, with 20- and 30-year gilt yields approaching the 6% mark amid broader global inflation concerns and fiscal worries. Ahead of the meeting, markets had priced a 76% chance of a hold, according to LSEG data cited by CNBC, with a hike of at least 25 basis points widely anticipated at the Bank's November meeting.

Analysts characterized the hold as the Bank buying time rather than signaling comfort. Scott Gardner of J.P. Morgan Personal Investing noted, per CNBC, that despite headline inflation creeping up over the summer, the labour market continues to soften while core and services inflation have been relatively resilient since the Middle East conflict began, and that the UK economy has largely been insulated from the conflict aside from higher energy bills. Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton, said in a note cited by CNBC that "the Bank seems to be more relaxed on inflation risks than their international counterparts, although the markets are setting borrowing costs at present anyway."

Diverging From Global Peers

The hold puts the Bank of England out of step with other major central banks this week. CNBC reported that the Federal Reserve announced a quarter-point hike on Wednesday, its first since 2023, while the European Central Bank delivered its second increase of the year last week after raising rates in June for the first time in three years.

On the balance sheet, Trading Economics reported that the MPC unanimously agreed to reduce its stock of government bond purchases to zero through a multi-year programme, unwinding holdings at an average annual pace of £46 billion through 2034. The Bank has not changed Bank Rate since December, when it cut by 25 basis points, according to CNBC; UK rates had been trending down from a 15-year high of 5.25% until the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February, after which the Strait of Hormuz has been largely closed to traffic, per ABC News.

Bottom Line

The Bank of England chose to wait rather than follow the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, holding Bank Rate at 3.75% while three of the nine MPC members pushed for an immediate hike. With inflation at 3.1% and further increases expected as domestic energy bills rise from October, per ABC News, the Committee has effectively put markets on notice that a rate rise — most likely in November or December, according to CNBC and ABC News — hinges on how long the energy-driven price shock persists and whether it feeds into wages and underlying prices.

Generac Shares Jump After Amazon Warrant Deal Tied to $2.4 Billion Data-Center Power Agreement

Traders Agency Team — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 22:08:56 GMT

Generac Holdings shares jumped more than 40% in extended trading on Wednesday after a regulatory filing disclosed that Amazon had received warrants to purchase up to 1.69 million shares of the backup-power maker, tied to a supply agreement that could bring Generac $2.4 billion in initial deliveries over 2027 and 2028, according to CNBC and Seeking Alpha.

What the filing describes

Per the filing cited by CNBC, Generac will supply Amazon with backup power generators for its data centers, with initial deliveries expected to total $2.4 billion across 2027 and 2028. In exchange, Amazon was granted warrants to purchase up to $340 million worth of Generac stock, structured as the right to acquire up to 1.69 million shares if certain business volume milestones are met, Seeking Alpha reported.

CNBC reported that about 308,000 warrant shares vested immediately, with the remaining tranches vesting contingent on payments Amazon makes for the generators. That implies roughly 1.38 million warrant shares remain tied to future milestones, calculated by subtracting the 308,000 immediately vested shares reported by CNBC from the 1.69 million total shares reported by Seeking Alpha (1,690,000 − 308,000 = 1,382,000).

Neither source detailed the warrants' strike price or expiration date, and the filing as described does not indicate whether the $2.4 billion supply arrangement is exclusive to Amazon or whether it includes options for additional volumes beyond 2028. Those specifics were not part of the reporting reviewed.

Dilution in context

CNBC reported that the warrants are equivalent to almost 3% of Generac's outstanding shares, and that the company's market capitalization stood at about $10.3 billion as of Wednesday's close. Neither outlet compared the $2.4 billion in initial deliveries against Generac's annual revenue or existing order backlog, and no updated guidance or capacity-expansion plans from Generac were referenced in the reporting.

Part of a broader Amazon playbook

The Generac arrangement follows a similar structure Amazon used just days earlier with Qualcomm. CNBC reported that Amazon struck a deal to use Qualcomm's custom artificial intelligence chips and, in return, received warrants to acquire as much as $4 billion in Qualcomm stock. CNBC also noted that Amazon frequently purchases warrants and takes stakes in its suppliers, pointing to prior arrangements with semiconductor firm Astera Labs, air cargo contractor ATSG, green hydrogen supplier Plug Power, and grocery distributor SpartanNash.

These supplier-warrant deals are occurring alongside a broader expansion of Amazon Web Services' data-center footprint tied to surging AI compute demand. CNBC reported that AWS signed a $38 billion cloud deal with OpenAI last November and opened an $11 billion campus for Anthropic last October. Read together, the Generac warrant deal appears to fit a pattern in which Amazon secures both supply commitments and equity upside from vendors supporting its AI infrastructure buildout, though the reporting reviewed did not draw that connection explicitly beyond listing the individual transactions.

Market reaction

The stock reaction was immediate and pronounced. CNBC reported that Generac shares soared more than 40% in extended trading on Wednesday following the disclosure, and Seeking Alpha headlined the move as Generac "surging" on the $2.4 billion Amazon deal. Neither source reported how other backup-power or generator manufacturers traded after the announcement, and no claims about competitor share-price moves or market-share shifts appear in the material reviewed.

Bottom Line

The disclosure marks a concrete, filing-based supply and warrant arrangement between Amazon and Generac, with initial deliveries of backup generators for Amazon's data centers expected to total $2.4 billion across 2027 and 2028, and warrants covering up to 1.69 million Generac shares, roughly 3% of shares outstanding, tied to business volume milestones. Key structural details, including the warrants' strike price, expiration, and whether the supply relationship is exclusive, were not specified in the reporting available. The stock's sharp extended-trading gain reflects investor reaction to the disclosed deal size relative to Generac's market capitalization, though the reporting reviewed did not include comparisons to Generac's revenue base, backlog, or updated financial guidance.

Gap Trading Strategies

Traders Agency Team — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 21:31:25 GMT

A gap trading strategy is a method of trading price openings that occur above or below the prior session's close, using the size, type, and volume behind that gap to forecast whether price will continue in that direction or reverse to fill the void. Gaps form when overnight news, earnings, or an order flow imbalance pushes the opening print away from where the previous session ended. For advanced traders, gap trading is less about spotting a gap and more about correctly classifying it and reacting with the right structure and risk framework.

You've probably watched a stock gap up 6% on an earnings beat, only to spend the entire session grinding back down to unchanged. You've also probably watched the opposite: a gap that just keeps running, where every attempt to fade it gets steamrolled. The difference between those two outcomes isn't random, and we're going to show you how to read it.

By the end of this guide, you'll know how to classify the four major gap types, apply gap-fill probability logic to your entries, build a pre-market volume confirmation workflow, and structure a multi-leg risk framework for trading gaps at size. We wrote this for traders who already understand order flow, volume profile, and basic options mechanics, so we'll move quickly and go deep.

What Is Gap Trading?

Bottom Line: A gap trading strategy works only when traders classify the gap type first and confirm it with pre-market volume before deciding whether to fade it or ride the continuation. Treating every gap the same way, or entering without a volume-confirmed structure and multi-leg risk plan, is what separates the traders who get steamrolled from those who read the move correctly.

Gap trading is the practice of entering positions based on the price discontinuity between one session's close and the next session's open, then trading either the continuation of that move or its reversal back toward the prior price. It works because gaps represent a sudden repricing of information, and markets need time to fully absorb that repricing.

The mechanics look simple on the surface. A stock closes at $50.00. Overnight news drops. The stock opens the next session at $53.50. That $3.50 difference is the gap. What happens next, whether price runs to $58 or slides back to $50.20, depends entirely on the type of gap, the volume behind the open, and where that gap sits relative to the stock's broader structure.

We teach traders to treat gaps the way institutional desks do: as information events, not just price events. A gap tells you that new information has entered the market faster than liquidity can process it, and the first 30 to 90 minutes of trading is essentially price discovery happening in real time. That's the window most gap traders operate in, and it's also the window where the majority of retail mistakes happen.

Key Concept: A gap is a liquidity failure, not a price prediction. The opening print tells you information arrived faster than the market could absorb it. Your job is to classify what kind of information it was before you take a side.

What Are the Different Types of Gaps in Trading?

There are four primary types of gaps in trading: common, breakaway, runaway (also called measuring gaps), and exhaustion gaps. Each one signals a different stage of a trend and carries a different probability of filling.

1. Common Gaps

These occur with no major news driver, usually inside an established trading range, and tend to fill quickly, often within the same session. They're low-conviction and mostly ignorable for directional trades, though we do find them useful as range-boundary confirmation.

2. Breakaway Gaps

A breakaway gap occurs at the end of a consolidation pattern and marks the start of a new trend, typically on a volume surge well above the stock's average. This is the gap type we care about most, because it often precedes sustained directional moves.

3. Runaway (Measuring) Gaps

These appear mid-trend, not at the start or end, and signal that a trend has enough momentum to accelerate rather than stall. We use the distance from the trend's origin to the runaway gap to project a rough measured move target.

4. Exhaustion Gaps

An exhaustion gap shows up near the end of an extended trend, often on a final volume spike, and frequently reverses hard within one to three sessions. These are the gaps most likely to trap late continuation buyers.

Illustrative Gap-Fill Probability By Gap Type, Traders Agency (Illustrative)

What Is the Gap Fill Probability for Each Gap Type?

What is a gap fill in trading? A gap fill occurs when price retraces back to the level where the prior session closed, effectively closing the price void left by the opening move. Gap fills matter because they give you a specific, measurable price target to plan entries and exits around.

Here's how we rank fill tendency across the four types:

Gap Type	Typical Fill Behavior	Preferred Setup
Common	Fills at the highest rate, often same session	Fade toward prior close
Breakaway	Fills far less often; backed by real volume and fresh positioning	Gap and go continuation
Runaway	Rarely fills during the active trend phase	Continuation with measured move target
Exhaustion	May not fill immediately, but often round-trips within a few sessions	Fade after confirmation of failure

Common gaps fill most often because they lack the informational weight to sustain a directional move. Breakaway gaps hold because they mark genuine structural shifts. Runaway gaps rarely fill during the trend, since filling them would contradict the very momentum that created them. Exhaustion gaps sit in between: they hang on briefly, then give it all back once the trend loses steam.

The chart above is illustrative, not a statistical guarantee. Use it as a probability-weighting framework, not a certainty. This is exactly the nuance that separates the best gap trading strategy from the generic "buy the gap" advice repeated across gap trading strategy PDF downloads and forum threads without any backtesting behind it.

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Fade the Gap vs Gap and Go: Which Setup Wins?

Fading the gap means shorting a gap-up (or buying a gap-down) on the expectation of a reversal toward the prior close. Gap-and-go means entering in the direction of the gap on the expectation of continuation. Neither setup wins universally. The correct choice depends entirely on gap type, volume, and where the gap sits within the broader trend structure.

Setup A: Gap and Go Example

XYZ closes at $40.00 and gaps up to $43.20 pre-market on a guidance raise, with pre-market volume already running at 4x the 20-day average by 9:00 AM. That's a breakaway gap profile: fresh driver, heavy volume, and a clean break above a multi-week consolidation range between $37 and $40.

Step 1: Classify the gap. Confirm the volume surge, verify the news quality, and mark the consolidation range being broken.
Step 2: Wait for structure. Let the first 5-minute candle close above the pre-market high before touching the position.
Step 3: Enter long with a stop placed just under the opening print, roughly $42.60.
Step 4: Set the target using the $3.00 height of the prior consolidation range ($37 to $40) projected off the $43.20 opening print, since price gapped clean through the $40 breakout level. That puts the target near $46.20.
Step 5: Manage the runner. Trail the stop behind each higher opening-range retest instead of exiting all at once.

Scenario	What Happens	Result
Best Case	Volume stays elevated, gap never fills	Price runs to $46.20+ in one to two sessions
Most Likely	Midday chop, partial retest of the opening range	Continuation into the close
Worst Case	Bull trap on light real volume behind the pre-market print	Stopped out under $42.60, roughly 1.5% against the entry price

Setup B: Fade the Gap Example

Now take ABC, which closes at $25.00 and gaps up to $27.10 on unconfirmed rumor-driven news with pre-market volume barely above average. There's no consolidation breakout and no measured move structure, just a headline-driven pop. This profile reads as a common gap or, if ABC has already run hard into the print, an exhaustion gap.

Step 1: Wait for the open. Do not pre-position a fade in the pre-market session.
Step 2: Confirm failure. The first 15 minutes should print a lower high than the opening print with declining volume.
Step 3: Enter short with a stop above the pre-market high.
Step 4: Target the gap fill at the prior close of $25.00.

Contrasting Intraday Paths After A Gap Up, Traders Agency (Illustrative)

The differentiator between these two setups isn't the direction of the gap. It's the volume, the news quality, and where the stock sat in its own structure before the gap ever happened.

How Does Volume Confirm a Gap Continuation Signal?

Volume confirmation is the process of using pre-market and opening-range volume data to determine whether a gap has enough real participation behind it to sustain continuation, rather than being a thin, easily reversed print. Skip this step and gap-and-go trades on low-conviction gaps become a coin flip.

Our Pre-Market Assessment Workflow

We run this checklist before every gap trade, in this order:

Compare pre-market volume to the 20-day average traded by that same pre-market hour. Anything under 2x average is a caution flag.
Check the news quality. Earnings beats, guidance changes, and regulatory decisions carry more weight than unconfirmed rumors or thin sympathy plays. Original filings on SEC EDGAR are the fastest way to verify what actually got announced.
Map the gap against recent structure. Is this breaking out of a range (breakaway), extending a trend (runaway), or capping an extended move (exhaustion)?
Watch the first 5-minute and 15-minute candle volume relative to the opening print. Fading volume on continuation attempts is a red flag for gap and go. Rising volume on pushes back in the gap's direction is a red flag for fade setups.
Confirm relative volume (RVOL) is elevated across the sector, not just the single name. Sector-wide expansion suggests a real informational event rather than an isolated liquidity anomaly.

Relative Volume Expansion At The Opening Gap, Traders Agency (Illustrative)

This same workflow applies to an overnight gap trading strategy, where you're assessing futures volume and after-hours prints before the cash session even opens. Index and equity futures data from the CME Group gives you a head start on classifying the gap while most retail traders aren't even watching yet.

How Does Gap Trading Work on Advanced Timeframes?

On longer timeframes, gap trading shifts from a single-session event into a multi-day structural signal, where weekly gaps on indices or futures contracts can mark trend inflection points rather than intraday noise. The core logic doesn't change, but the holding period and risk sizing do.

A daily chart gap that holds for three or more consecutive sessions without filling carries far more weight than an intraday gap that never survives the opening 30 minutes. On weekly charts, gaps are rarer and tend to align with major fundamental shifts, sector rotations, or macro events, which makes them useful confirmation tools for swing and position traders layering gap analysis on top of moving averages or volume profile nodes. Adding 50-day or 200-day moving average context builds real conviction: a breakaway gap that also clears a major moving average on strong volume is a materially stronger signal than the same gap printing inside a choppy range.

How Should You Manage Risk on Multi-Leg Gap Trades?

We rarely enter a gap trade as a single all-in position, and neither do institutional desks. Instead, we scale in using a structured, multi-leg approach that limits exposure during the highest-uncertainty period: the first 15 to 30 minutes after the open.

Our Three-Leg Framework

Probe entry (1/3 of intended size): taken immediately at confirmation, using a tight stop tied to the opening range low or high.
Confirmation add (1/3 of intended size): added only after the first 15-minute candle closes in the direction of the trade with volume holding above the pre-market average.
Trailing runner (final 1/3): added on a successful retest of the opening range, managed with a trailing stop rather than a fixed target so the strongest gaps can run.

Illustrative Risk Budget For A Three-Leg Gap Trade, Traders Agency (Illustrative)

Watch Out: Total risk across all three legs should never exceed your standard 1R (one unit of risk) for the trade, even though you're deploying capital in stages. Staging entries is only protective if the combined risk stays capped. The single biggest gap trading mistake we see is a full-size entry into a gap that turns out to be a low-volume trap.

Is Gap Trading Profitable?

Gap trading can be profitable when you apply disciplined gap classification, volume confirmation, and strict risk controls. It is not inherently profitable just because a gap exists. The edge comes from correctly identifying which gap type you're looking at and matching your setup, fade or continuation, to that classification.

Traders who blindly buy every gap up or short every gap down without this framework tend to see inconsistent results, since common gaps and failed exhaustion gaps tend to favor a fill rather than continuation. The real question isn't whether gap trading works as a category. It's whether your process separates high-probability continuation setups from high-probability fade setups before you risk capital.

When Should You Use a Gap Trading Strategy?

Gap trading works best on liquid, high-volume names with clear pre-market data, real news drivers, and identifiable structure on the daily chart heading into the open. It's a poor fit for thinly traded stocks, low-float names with erratic pre-market prints, or gaps without any discernible fundamental reason behind them.

Don't force a gap trade when pre-market volume is ambiguous, or when the broader market (SPX futures, sector ETFs) is gapping in the opposite direction of your target stock. Fighting the tape rarely pays. This strategy pairs well with volume profile analysis and moving average context, and it should occupy a defined, capped portion of your overall trading capital rather than becoming your entire approach. Size each gap trade based on the volatility of the individual name, using ATR-based stops instead of fixed dollar stops, since gap volatility varies enormously across sectors and market caps.

Remember This: Classify first, then choose your side. Breakaway and runaway gaps favor continuation. Common and exhaustion gaps favor the fill. Volume is what tells you which one you're actually looking at.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I make $1,000 a day day trading?
It's possible on certain days with sufficient capital, volatility, and a working edge, but it is neither consistent nor guaranteed. Fixed daily targets like this tend to push traders into overtrading and oversized positions.

What is the 3-5-7 rule in trading?
The 3-5-7 rule is a risk management guideline where a trader risks no more than 3% of capital on any single trade, keeps total exposure across open trades under 5%, and ensures winning trades secure at least 7% more profit than the amount risked on losing trades.

Is gap trading profitable?
Gap trading can be profitable when you correctly classify gap type, confirm with volume, and apply disciplined risk management. It is not automatically profitable and requires a defined process rather than reactive entries.

Which trading strategy is most successful?
No single strategy is universally most successful. Results depend on market conditions, timeframe, and execution discipline. Gap trading, trend following, and mean reversion all work in different environments when applied with sound risk management.

What is a gap fill in trading?
A gap fill happens when price returns to the level of the prior session's close after an opening gap, erasing the price void the gap created.

What is the best gap trading strategy for beginners moving to advanced setups?
There is no single best gap trading strategy, but a volume-confirmed breakaway gap approach combined with staged position entries tends to offer the clearest risk-to-reward profile for traders stepping up from basic to advanced execution.

Our education team publishes new strategy guides and market analysis every week.

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Fed Raises Rates 25bp to 3.75%-4%, First Hike Since 2023; Dot Plot Points to One More Increase in 2026

Traders Agency Team — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 20:41:15 GMT

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point on September 16, lifting the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4% in what CNBC and Trading Economics both described as the Fed's first hike since 2023. CNBC reported that the Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 to approve the increase, and Trading Economics likewise described the decision as unanimous. The accompanying Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed a median federal funds rate of 4.1% by the end of 2026, implying one additional 25 basis point move before year-end, according to the Federal Reserve's own projections materials.

Unanimous Vote, Hawkish Statement

The Committee's post-meeting statement said inflation "remains elevated" and that the rate increase "will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal," per the FOMC statement text reported by CNBC. Chair Kevin Warsh told reporters that inflation had been "too high ... for too long" and that the Committee had judged its standard for confidence in disinflation had not been satisfied. Warsh cited three factors behind the unanimous decision: a strong economy and labor market, inflation still running above target, and tension in the Middle East, saying "all three of those things lend themselves to a firm unanimous decision today," according to CNBC's report of his remarks.

Dot Plot Signals One More Hike in 2026

The closely watched dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one more rate increase this year, with four of those penciling in two additional 25 basis point moves; two participants saw no further hikes in 2026, CNBC and Trading Economics both reported. Warsh did not submit a projection, a detail confirmed in his press conference and reported by CNBC.

Looking further out, the SEP showed no additional increases penciled in beyond 2026, with one cut indicated for 2028 and at least one more for 2029, per CNBC's reading of the projections. The 2027 median was effectively unchanged from 2026, but CNBC characterized that year's dot as "a fairly close call," with eight officials pointing to another hike, six seeing rates holding steady, and four envisioning cuts. The Fed's own materials caution that these federal funds rate projections are not forecasts but individual assessments of appropriate policy on an end-of-year basis, and that historical confidence intervals around them are quite wide.

Inflation, Growth and Unemployment Projections Revised

The SEP nudged this year's inflation outlook higher. Headline PCE inflation for 2026 was revised to 3.7% and core PCE to 3.4%, each 0.1 percentage point above the June projections, according to CNBC and Trading Economics. The 2027 medians were left unchanged at 2.3% for headline and 2.5% for core. Seeking Alpha reported that core PCE inflation is projected to decline gradually and is not expected to reach the Fed's 2% objective until 2029.

Elsewhere in the SEP, the Committee lowered its unemployment rate projection to 4.1% for both 2026 and 2027, down 0.2 percentage point from the June forecast of 4.3% for both years, per CNBC and Trading Economics. GDP growth projections were revised modestly higher, to 2.3% for 2026 (from 2.2% in June) and 2.4% for 2027 (from 2.3%), Trading Economics reported.

Market Reaction: Yields, Mortgages and Futures Pricing

CNBC reported that Treasury yields fell and the S&P 500 rose in the immediate aftermath of the announcement, a reaction the outlet read as investors welcoming the Fed's inflation-fighting signal. Heading into the meeting, CNBC noted the 10-year Treasury yield had risen about a quarter percentage point since Warsh's August 28 remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium and roughly a full percentage point from its February low, with the 2-year note, which is more sensitive to near-term rate expectations, showing even sharper gains.

The rise in yields had already filtered into mortgage markets: CNBC cited Mortgage News Daily data showing the 30-year fixed mortgage rate had climbed to 7.19%, up about 38 basis points since the Jackson Hole speech and more than a full percentage point from a year earlier.

Ahead of the decision, markets had priced in a better than 90% probability that the FOMC would approve the increase, CNBC reported, though there had been chatter about the possibility of multiple dissents. After the decision, an experimental AI-generated summary on Polymarket put the market-implied probability of at least one rate hike occurring in 2026 at 100%, citing the SEP's 4.1% median projection.

Context: A More Hawkish Committee

Wednesday's unanimous vote followed a more contentious July meeting, at which three FOMC members dissented from the decision to hold rates steady, preferring a quarter-point increase at that time, according to CNBC. Brad Conger, chief investment officer at Hirtle & Co., told CNBC the September decision could mark "the moment when the FOMC regained a measure of spine," adding that "there were many arguments for standing still. But for once, the committee sided with main street."

Bottom Line

The Fed delivered a widely expected quarter-point hike while signaling, through its dot plot, that officials see one more increase before 2026 is over. The unanimous vote and upward revisions to near-term inflation projections underscore that policymakers view price pressures as still too persistent to declare victory, even as they simultaneously trimmed their unemployment forecasts and nudged growth estimates higher. With Warsh declining to submit his own dot and the 2027 outlook described by CNBC as a close call among hikes, holds and cuts, the path beyond this year remains unsettled and will likely hinge on incoming inflation and labor market data.

Stock Market Today: Technology Leads While S&P 500 Slips

Traders Agency Team — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 20:11:50 GMT

Technology Leads While S&P 500 Slips

Energy Led the Selloff as Rates Reset Higher

Energy stocks took the hardest hit of any sector Wednesday, and it wasn't close. The sector's decline was far larger than any other group on the board, even as the broader indexes also finished in the red.

The move came on a day when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield holding around flat after climbing back to a closely watched mark, according to CNBC. The same report noted the 10-year had reached its highest level since 2007 on Tuesday. Reuters reported that Wall Street ended lower in the prior session as oil prices spiked and the benchmark Treasury yield breached that level, a combination that left traders reassessing how much more the cost of capital could climb.

The sharp pullback in Energy shares stood out precisely because it ran counter to the backdrop of rising crude prices tied to the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which CNBC noted has already pushed gas and diesel costs higher for consumers. That divergence between crude strength and energy-stock weakness may reflect investors weighing rate risk and demand concerns more heavily than the commodity move itself.

Financials logged the second-worst sector performance of the day, a pairing that fits the story. Both groups are sensitive to where the Fed's policy path and the long end of the yield curve head next.

Market Scorecard

Asset	Value	Change	% Change
S&P 500	7,552.23	-33.50	▼ -0.44%
Nasdaq Composite	25,978.42	-3.15	▼ -0.01%
Dow Jones	51,462.55	-630.56	▼ -1.21%
Russell 2000	2,848.88	-21.41	▼ -0.75%
5Y Treasury	4.860%	+3.0 bps	▲
10Y Treasury	5.010%	+1.0 bps	▲
30Y Treasury	5.350%	-1.0 bps	▼
Bitcoin	$75,969.23	+356.72	▲ +0.47%
Ethereum	$2,403.84	+4.75	▲ +0.20%

Data timing: 2026-09-16 session; snapshot retrieved Sep 16, 2026, 4:02 PM EDT. Prepared Sep 16, 4:11 PM EDT. Sources: Yahoo Finance via yfinance (indexes and sector ETFs), U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates, Yahoo Finance point-in-time crypto observations. Crypto values are timestamped point-in-time observations.

The Dow took the biggest hit among the major indexes, while the Nasdaq Composite finished essentially flat. That split points to large-cap industrial and financial names absorbing most of the day's damage.

Bitcoin and Ethereum both edged higher, a reminder that crypto didn't take its cues from the same rate-driven pressure hitting stocks.

Sector Performance

Sector		Daily Change
1.Technology XLK		▲ +0.13%
2.Health Care XLV		▲ +0.07%
3.Utilities XLU		▲ +0.01%
4.Industrials XLI		▼ -0.12%
5.Consumer Staples XLP		▼ -0.43%
6.Real Estate XLRE		▼ -0.63%
7.Consumer Discretionary XLY		▼ -0.66%
8.Materials XLB		▼ -0.70%
9.Communication Services XLC		▼ -0.90%
10.Financials XLF		▼ -1.60%
11.Energy XLE		▼ -2.82%

Energy finished dead last, well behind every other group, with Financials the next weakest sector. Technology, Health Care, and defensive Utilities were the only groups to close in positive territory, and Utilities was essentially flat.

That split, with cyclicals and rate-sensitive names lagging while tech and health care held up, lines up with a session driven more by the Fed's rate decision and bond market moves than by any single company headline.

Today's Economic Releases

Time	Event	Impact
08:30 ET	Retail Sales (Aug)	MEDIUM
14:00 ET	FOMC Rate Decision	HIGH

The FOMC decision was the main focus of the session. The Fed's policymaking committee voted unanimously to raise its benchmark rate for the first time since 2023, according to CNBC, which also reported the committee's statement that "inflation remains elevated." Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told reporters that "inflation is too high and has been for too long," and stocks slid through the afternoon.

The White House pushed back, calling the move "rather unfortunate" and saying it lacked a "compelling economic case," per Seeking Alpha. That kind of public friction between the central bank and the administration may have added another layer of uncertainty for traders trying to price in what comes next.

Looking Ahead

There's nothing on the next-day calendar that carries the weight of Wednesday's Fed decision, so markets head into the next session digesting what the hike may mean for borrowing costs, energy demand, and consumer spending.

Kay Haigh, global head and CIO of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said the Fed "has signaled it does not at this stage envisage an aggressive tightening cycle," according to CNBC. Haigh added that most FOMC members see a total of two hikes this year per the Fed's projections and that the committee will likely skip the October meeting given its proximity to the midterm elections, with one more hike in December as Goldman's base case, though that "remains contingent on upcoming CPI reports and the path of energy prices." That framing means another Fed rate hike remains a meaningful possibility for December, not a locked-in outcome.

Traders will also be watching whether the 10-year yield holds near the level it reached Wednesday, since further moves higher could keep pressure on rate-sensitive sectors like Financials and Real Estate. On the consumer side, Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told CNBC that consumers "are under a lot of financial pressure," with Moody's estimating a sizable per-household cost since the US-Iran conflict began from higher energy prices, interest rates, and military spending. That pressure could keep spending data choppy in the weeks ahead.

With Energy stocks now the market's weakest link even as crude climbs, the next session may hinge on whether that gap between commodity prices and equity performance starts to close, or widens further.

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Fed Raises Rates a Quarter Point to 3.75%-4% in Unanimous Vote, First Hike Since July 2023

Traders Agency Team — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 19:43:38 GMT

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday, lifting the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4% from 3.5%-3.75%. The Federal Open Market Committee's decision, its first rate increase since July 2023, passed 12-0, with all policymakers, including Chairman Kevin Warsh, voting in favor, according to CNBC and CNN.

The Decision and What the Statement Says

The Fed's post-meeting statement said "inflation remains elevated" and that "today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal," adding that "the Committee will deliver price stability," per the text reported by CNBC. The unanimous vote stands in contrast to July, when three FOMC members dissented against holding rates steady, preferring a quarter-point increase at that meeting, CNBC noted.

Warsh's Press Conference

Speaking to reporters afterward, Warsh was blunt about the inflation backdrop. "The plain fact is that inflation is too high, and has been for too long," he said, according to CNBC's live coverage. "This summer's inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved." He said the committee needed confidence that underlying inflation was moving toward its objective "clearly and at sufficient speed," and added, "today, the FOMC decided that this standard has not been satisfied."

Warsh pointed to three developments since the July meeting that he said produced what he called "a firm unanimous decision": a strong economy and labor market, still-elevated inflation, and tension in the Middle East. He declined to offer guidance on future moves, telling reporters, "I'm not in the forward guidance business," and said the move was not driven by markets. Asked about any conversations with President Trump, Warsh said, "I've got nothing for you on the discussion with the president." He also said the Fed cannot control individual prices like oil or groceries but will work to prevent relative price shifts from causing "second and third order effects" on the broader economy.

A Committee Divided on What Comes Next

The Fed's updated Summary of Economic Projections showed 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one more rate increase this year, with 12 seeing one additional hike and four penciling in two more; two participants expected the committee to stop at this hike, CNBC reported. Warsh again withheld a personal rate projection, as he did in June.

Views diverge further out. For 2027, eight officials pointed to another hike, six saw rates holding steady, and four envisioned cuts, CNBC reported, calling it "a fairly close call." Beyond 2027, no further increases are penciled in, with one rate cut indicated for 2028 and at least one for 2029, according to CNBC.

Markets Reprice After the Announcement

Equities had been higher earlier in the session but turned lower after the Fed acted and as Warsh spoke. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 751 points, or 1.5%, with financial shares leading losses; Bank of America and Wells Fargo each declined 3% on fear that higher rates could slow lending growth and the economy, according to CNBC. The S&P 500 was down 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.

The 10-year Treasury yield initially fell after the post-meeting statement but climbed back toward the 5% mark as Warsh took questions, per CNBC. The 2-year yield erased an earlier decline to trade near 4.717%. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.67% to 100.21, its highest level since July 31, according to Seeking Alpha.

Ahead of the decision, markets had priced in better than a 90% chance of the hike, though CNBC noted there had been chatter about the possibility of multiple dissents that did not materialize.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management's Kay Haigh, cited by CNBC, said the Fed signaled it does not envisage an aggressive tightening cycle and expects the committee to skip its October meeting given proximity to the midterm elections, with one more hike in December as Goldman's base case, contingent on upcoming CPI reports and energy prices.

The Inflation and Growth Backdrop

The hike followed an August Consumer Price Index report showing inflation accelerated that month, particularly in the core measure that strips out food and energy, CNN reported. Energy costs have been a factor: U.S. diesel prices hit $6 a gallon for the first time amid supply constraints tied to the Ukraine and Iran wars, and crude oil has held above $100 a barrel, according to CNBC.

Separately on Wednesday, government data showed retail spending rose sharply in August, which CNN said gave the Fed "some room to raise rates." August job growth also picked up sharply while unemployment held steady at 4.1%, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics data cited by CNN. CNN also reported that officials are concerned about the potential inflationary impact of the large artificial intelligence buildout, while CNBC noted that economists see expanded AI investment as a potential inflationary factor.

Political Reaction

The move is the first major rate decision under Warsh, who was appointed by President Trump after Trump had pressured the Fed to cut rates. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told CNN's Jake Tapper that the president will accept the hike. White House Council of Economic Advisers chair Christopher Phelan had told CNBC a day earlier that raising rates would be "a mistake."

Interpretation: A Committee Testing Its Resolve

Hirtle & Co. chief investment officer Brad Conger, quoted by CNBC, offered a more sympathetic read, saying the meeting "could mark the moment when the FOMC regained a measure of spine," and that despite arguments for standing pat, "the committee sided with main street." That framing is one market participant's interpretation, not a Fed statement. Taken together with the split dot plot for 2027, we would read the unanimous vote less as consensus on a tightening path and more as agreement that current conditions, strong data, sticky inflation and geopolitical risk, warranted this specific move, with real disagreement remaining about how far the cycle goes from here.

Bottom Line

The Fed lifted its policy rate to 3.75%-4% in a unanimous decision that ends more than two years without a hike, with Chairman Warsh citing persistent inflation, a resilient labor market and geopolitical tension. The updated dot plot points to at least one more increase this year for most officials, but the committee is closely divided on 2027, and markets reacted by selling stocks, pushing the dollar higher and sending long-term yields back toward 5%.

Continental Resources Signs MOU With PDVSA to Develop Venezuela's Ayacucho 2 Block

Traders Agency Team — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 18:10:22 GMT

Continental Resources has signed a memorandum of understanding with Venezuela's state oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA), to operate and develop the Ayacucho 2 Block in the Orinoco Oil Belt, according to a company statement carried by PR Newswire and confirmed in CNBC reporting. The MOU, dated September 16, 2026, covers a 126,000-acre block north of the Orinoco River in Anzoátegui state that the company says holds an estimated 30 billion barrels of resource in place.

What the MOU Actually Says

Illustrative depiction of the Orinoco Belt region described in company filings.

Per the company's own release, Continental would operate the block with a 100% working interest once a definitive long-term agreement, known in Venezuela as a Contrato de Participación Productiva (CPP), is executed. The parties intend to advance that CPP "in the coming weeks," according to the release, a timeline CNBC also reported. Neither the release nor CNBC's report disclosed a capital commitment, a production target, a drilling timeline or any PDVSA equity share in the operating interest. Bottom line: as announced, this is a preliminary framework rather than a binding development contract — an interpretation tied to the fact that the MOU, on the company's own description, still requires a CPP and carries no disclosed spending or output terms.

Ratio Spreads and Backspreads

Traders Agency Team — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 17:20:30 GMT

Ratio spreads and backspreads are built from an unequal number of long and short contracts at different strikes inside the same expiration. A ratio spread sells more options than it buys, which produces a position that profits inside a narrow range but carries open-ended risk beyond it. A backspread flips that ratio, buying more than it sells, which caps risk but demands a bigger directional or volatility move to pay off. We teach these as advanced tools for traders who already have vertical spreads down cold and want tighter control over their Greeks exposure. By the time you finish this guide, you'll know how to structure both sides, read the payoff diagrams, and handle the margin mechanics that trip up most first-timers.

What Is a Ratio Spread?

Bottom Line: Ratio spreads collect extra premium by selling more contracts than they buy, but leave an uncovered short with open-ended risk if price moves too far. Backspreads flip this by buying more than they sell, capping risk but requiring a larger move to profit, so the choice between them depends on matching structure, Greeks, and margin needs to the trader's outlook and risk tolerance.

A ratio spread is an options position where you sell more contracts than you buy, typically in a 2:1 or 3:1 ratio, at different strikes in the same expiration cycle.

That's the core of the structure: you're financing a long option with premium collected from two or more short options, often for a net credit or a very small debit. The extra short premium is where the edge comes from. It's also where the uncapped risk comes from.

Key Concept: A ratio spread sells more options than it buys. You get a credit and a defined profit zone, but at least one short contract sits uncovered beyond the spread, which means the risk on that side is open-ended.

Call Ratio Spread Example

Here's how a call ratio spread would look on a stock trading at $120:

Parameter	Value
Underlying	Stock at $120
Long Leg	Buy 1 call, $120 strike, $5.00 premium
Short Leg	Sell 2 calls, $130 strike, $2.50 each
Net Cost	Roughly breakeven at entry ($5.00 paid, $5.00 collected)
Max Profit	Stock closes exactly at $130 at expiration
Breakevens	Near $120 (lower) and around $140 (upper)
Max Loss	Theoretically unlimited above the upper breakeven

Depending on implied volatility skew, that entry may come through as a small credit or a small debit. Either way, the tradeoff is the one every trader needs to internalize before touching this structure: limited reward, undefined risk on one side.

What Is a Backspread?

A backspread is the mirror image. You buy more options than you sell, usually in a 1:2 or 1:3 ratio, again at different strikes in the same expiration.

Where a ratio spread is a "sell premium and cap the upside" trade, a backspread is a "pay a little to own a lot of convexity" trade. You're positioned to benefit from a large move or a volatility spike, and your maximum loss is typically capped and known before you ever click the button.

Call Backspread Example

Using the same underlying at $120:

Parameter	Value
Underlying	Stock at $120
Short Leg	Sell 1 call, $120 strike, $5.00 premium
Long Leg	Buy 2 calls, $130 strike, $2.50 each
Net Cost	Close to breakeven, sometimes a small net debit
Max Loss	Limited, greatest with the stock at $130 at expiration (the long strike)
Max Profit	Theoretically unlimited to the upside (two uncapped long calls)
Below the Short Strike	Loss capped at the net debit paid, or you keep the credit if entered for one

That's the essential distinction between the two structures: one caps upside and leaves risk open, the other caps risk and leaves upside open.

What's the Difference Between a Call Ratio Spread and a Put Ratio Spread?

The call version of a ratio spread expresses a neutral to moderately bullish view. It profits most when the stock drifts up toward the short strike without blowing through it. The put version does the same job on the downside.

A put ratio spread might sell two puts at a strike below the current price and buy one put at a higher strike, collecting credit while betting the stock holds above a certain level or declines only moderately. The risk profile mirrors the call version: capped profit near the short strike, with large losses if the stock falls hard through the lower breakeven. On the put side that loss is bounded by the stock reaching zero, so it is very large rather than literally unlimited.

Put backspreads run the same logic in reverse, buying more puts than sold to capture a sharp decline while keeping max loss defined. We choose between call and put versions based on where our directional and volatility assumptions point.

Expiration Payoff Comparison for a Call Ratio Spread and Call Backspread, Traders Agency (Illustrative, based on specified premiums)

Look at how the ratio spread's payoff line flattens and then drops sharply past the upper breakeven, while the backspread's line stays flat near the strikes and then climbs without limit. That single image captures the entire risk tradeoff between these two structures.

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What Is the Directional Assumption for a Ratio Spread?

A ratio spread's directional assumption is neutral to mildly directional. You expect the underlying to move toward the short strike but not blast through it before expiration.

This is why magnitude matters as much as direction here. Getting the size of the move wrong is what generates the losses, not just picking the wrong side. A stock that rallies too hard past your short call strike turns a well-designed credit trade into an open-ended loser in a hurry. Backspreads flip that assumption completely. They want a large move in one direction or a volatility expansion, which is why traders reach for them heading into earnings and other binary events.

Put Ratio Spread vs Put Backspread Comparison

Expiration Payoff Comparison for Put Ratio Spreads and Put Backspreads, Traders Agency (Illustrative, based on specified premiums)

The put ratio spread profits inside a defined band above the lower strike and loses heavily on a sharp decline, bounded only by the stock reaching zero. The put backspread caps loss in that same band and gains sharply on that same decline, with its maximum gain limited by that same zero floor. The exact opposite risk shape.

How Do Ratio Spreads and Backspreads Affect Delta, Theta, and Vega?

Because these are unbalanced positions, the Greeks behave differently than they do in a standard vertical spread, and that difference is the entire reason to build one.

A call ratio spread usually starts with a small positive to roughly flat delta near the current price, but that delta turns clearly negative as the stock rises past the short strikes, since you're now net short more calls than you own. Theta works in your favor inside the profitable zone, because time decay erodes two short options faster than it erodes your single long option. Vega is negative overall, so a volatility spike hurts the position even with no price movement at all.

A call backspread runs the opposite exposure: negative theta in the flat zone near the strikes, since you're paying for two long options that decay against you while the stock sits still, but positive vega, so rising implied volatility helps you before the stock moves an inch.

Illustrative Greek Exposure of Ratio Spreads and Backspreads, Traders Agency (Illustrative, normalized educational example)

Remember This: Ratio spreads sell volatility and collect theta. Backspreads buy volatility and pay theta. Choosing between them often comes down to your read on implied volatility relative to where it's headed, not just your read on price direction.

What Are the Margin Implications of Ratio Spreads and Backspreads?

The unequal-leg structure creates margin requirements that catch a lot of traders off guard, especially anyone coming from balanced vertical spreads.

Because a ratio spread leaves one or more short options uncovered past the defined range, most brokers require margin as if you were holding a naked short option on the excess contracts. That requirement can be substantial, and it varies by broker, by underlying volatility, and by whether your account is even approved for uncovered options trading. A backspread usually requires far less margin, since the long options you own on the excess side reduce risk rather than add to it. Many brokers only require the debit paid or a modest defined-risk amount. Contract specifications and margin conventions for listed options are published by the exchanges, and we recommend checking the current details at Cboe before structuring anything unfamiliar.

Step-by-Step: How We Approach These Trades

Step 1: Read the Volatility Environment. Check where implied volatility sits relative to its own history. High IV with an expected contraction favors the ratio spread. Low IV with an expected expansion favors the backspread.
Step 2: Define the Move You Expect. Write down both the direction and the magnitude. A ratio spread needs a drift toward the short strike. A backspread needs a move well past it.
Step 3: Select Strikes and Ratio. Place the short strike where you believe price stalls, then choose a 2:1 or 3:1 ratio that brings the net cost close to zero without stacking more naked exposure than you can carry.
Step 4: Confirm Margin and Approval Level. Pull the actual margin number from your broker before entry, not after. Uncovered legs can require multiples of what a vertical spread ties up.
Step 5: Stress-Test the Payoff. Calculate profit and loss at several prices above and below your breakevens, and at several points in time, not just at expiration.
Step 6: Set Exits Before You Enter. Decide your profit target near the short strike and your hard exit level on the underlying, then trade the plan.

Risk Management Guidelines We Follow

Size uncapped-risk trades small. Never let a ratio spread's naked exposure represent more than a small slice of total account risk.
Set a hard stop on the underlying's price, not just the option's price. Gap risk on ratio spreads outruns mental stops.
Favor backspreads when implied volatility is historically low, because you're buying convexity cheaply.
Favor ratio spreads when implied volatility is historically high and you expect compression, because you're selling inflated premium.
Always know your exact max loss before entry. For ratio spreads, turn "unlimited" into a real number by pricing the loss at several stress-test levels.

Watch Out: The short side of a ratio spread carries open-ended loss potential. A single fast move through your short strikes can erase many months of collected credits. Treat position sizing and a firm exit level on the underlying as non-negotiable parts of the trade, not optional extras.

Quick Reference: Ratio Spread and Backspread Definitions

Feature	Ratio Spread	Backspread
Structure	Sell more than you buy	Buy more than you sell
Strikes / Expiration	Different strikes, same expiration	Different strikes, same expiration
Entry Cost	Net credit or small debit	Net debit or small credit
Profit	Capped near the short strike	Uncapped on a large move
Risk	Uncapped or large defined risk	Capped and known at entry
Theta	Positive in the profit zone	Negative near the strikes
Vega	Negative (short volatility)	Positive (long volatility)
Ideal Environment	Elevated IV, range-bound expectation	Low IV, expectation of a large move

Both structures sit among the more advanced multi-leg strategies, and the margin and Greek behavior above is exactly why. Our team recommends running the payoff math on paper, or in a simulated account, before you put real capital behind either one. The uncapped side of a ratio spread is unforgiving to anyone who hasn't stress-tested it first.

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Copart to Acquire ACV Auctions for $10.50 a Share in $1.9 Billion All-Cash Tender Offer

Traders Agency Team — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 16:44:19 GMT

Copart has agreed to buy ACV Auctions for $10.50 a share in cash, an implied all-cash tender offer valued at approximately $1.9 billion, according to a definitive merger agreement the two companies announced on September 10, 2026, as reported by CBT News and Collision Week. The deal pairs Copart's salvage-vehicle auction infrastructure with ACV's digital dealer-to-dealer marketplace and is expected to close by the end of calendar 2026.

Deal Terms and Structure

The merger agreement sets asymmetric walk-away costs: ACV owes Copart $57.7 million under certain circumstances, while Copart owes ACV $115.3 million under others, per Traders Agency's account of StockTitan's summary of ACV's 8-K filing.

Under the agreement, a Copart subsidiary, Apple Merger Sub, Inc., will launch a tender offer for all outstanding ACV shares at $10.50 apiece; any shares not tendered will be converted into the right to receive the same cash price in a follow-on merger, per CBT News's account of the announcement. Copart intends to fund the acquisition entirely with cash on hand, and the transaction is not subject to any financing condition, according to CBT News and The Globe and Mail, which added that the merger's conditions include majority tender, antitrust clearance and the absence of blocking injunctions.

The boards of both companies unanimously approved the deal, which the companies expect to close by year-end 2026. ACV will continue operating as an independent Copart subsidiary under its existing leadership team, CBT News and The Globe and Mail reported.

The merger agreement includes reciprocal termination fees: ACV would owe Copart $57.7 million under certain circumstances, while Copart would owe ACV $115.3 million under others, according to Traders Agency's summary of StockTitan's account of ACV's 8-K filing. That $57.6 million gap between the two fees, a difference of roughly 50% relative to the larger figure, is our calculation based on those disclosed amounts and reflects how termination risk is allocated asymmetrically between buyer and seller. Certain ACV holders beneficially owning about 4.1% of outstanding stock as of September 8, 2026, signed a support agreement committing to tender their shares, per Traders Agency's account of the same filing, which also noted a form of that agreement was filed as an exhibit to Copart's 8-K.

Evercore is serving as financial advisor to Copart, with Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati as legal counsel, according to CBT News, which also reported that J.P. Morgan Securities is ACV's exclusive financial advisor and provided a fairness opinion to the ACV board, with Davis Polk & Wardwell serving as legal counsel. Insurance Journal, citing Reuters, likewise identified Evercore and J.P. Morgan as the respective financial advisors.

Market Reaction

ACV shares jumped more than 40% in after-hours trading following the announcement, according to Traders Agency's account of a TradingView report sourced from Stocktwits. That report calculated the offer against an ACV close of $7.22, putting the premium at about 45% and leaving a gap of $3.28 a share, equal to roughly 31% of the offer price. Copart's own materials, cited by CBT News, put the premium at approximately 45% versus ACV's unaffected closing price on August 10, 2026, the last trading day before media reports of a potential deal surfaced, and approximately 41% versus ACV's 30-day volume-weighted average price through September 9, 2026, a four-percentage-point gap between those two premium measures, our calculation.

Copart shares traded about 9% higher after hours following the announcement, after closing the regular session down 4% ahead of its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings release that same evening, per Traders Agency's account of the TradingView report. Insurance Journal, citing Reuters, put Copart's after-hours move at about 8%, tied in part to fourth-quarter revenue that beat Wall Street estimates.

Regulatory Review and Business Overlap

Beyond a standard Hart-Scott-Rodino antitrust condition, the companies' disclosures flag dependence on required regulatory approvals and the possibility of competing acquisition proposals for ACV, according to a filing summarized by StockTitan. No antitrust regulator or dealer trade group has publicly commented on the transaction in the announcement materials or in the coverage reviewed, Traders Agency noted.

Copart's own investor presentation, as relayed by Traders Agency's account of StockTitan's summary, frames the two businesses as largely adjacent rather than overlapping. It sizes the market at roughly 20 million U.S. vehicles a year moving through dealer, used-vehicle wholesale and commercial channels, compared with about 5 million flowing through salvage auctions, a difference of 15 million vehicles, or roughly 300% more volume in the non-salvage channels, our calculation based on those figures. That framing suggests Copart is positioning the acquisition as an expansion into adjacent wholesale volume rather than a consolidation of directly competing salvage-auction supply.

ACV's Financial Profile and Deal Rationale

ACV sold about 829,000 vehicles in 2025 and handled $10.4 billion of marketplace sales, with adjusted core profit more than doubling to $59 million from $28 million and adjusted net income rising to $30 million from $11 million, according to Traders Agency's account of TradingView's coverage. For full-year 2026, ACV had guided to an unadjusted loss of $44 million to $49 million alongside adjusted core profit of $73 million to $77 million, after an $8 million unadjusted loss in the second quarter of 2026, per the same account. In its most recent reported quarter, ACV posted revenue of about $213.9 million at a 64.4% gross margin, a net loss of roughly $8.2 million, negative operating cash flow of about $35.5 million, and roughly $242.3 million of cash on hand, according to StocksToTrade.

Copart disclosed the ACV deal alongside its own fiscal fourth-quarter results, in which revenue rose 2.4% to about $1.15 billion, ahead of the $1.14 billion LSEG consensus, while quarterly profit fell to 35 cents a share from 41 cents a year earlier, Insurance Journal reported, citing Reuters. Reuters, per Insurance Journal, framed the acquisition as part of Copart's effort to expand beyond its core salvage-auction business amid slowing vehicle-volume growth, as insurers retain more vehicles and consumers pull back on auto coverage amid inflationary pressures.

Copart said it expects near-term cost and revenue synergies across dealer, commercial and retail channels, with the deal projected to be neutral to earnings per share in the first full year of ownership and accretive starting in fiscal 2028, per CBT News. No specific dollar synergy target or integration cost figure was disclosed. Copart CEO Jay Adair said the acquisition creates "an industry-leading end-to-end vehicle remarketing platform that is fully digital," adding that ACV "has built a differentiated, technology-driven marketplace that perfectly complements our extensive physical infrastructure and expansive buyer network," according to CBT News. ACV CEO George Chamoun said joining Copart would let the company "advance our mission, drive market expansion, and accelerate innovation with global scale," per CBT News's account of the announcement.

The transaction follows a Bloomberg report in August that ACV was weighing a sale or partnership, after which Stephens upgraded the stock and said a bid could reach $10.50 a share or more, naming Copart alongside Cox Auto and RB Global as likely buyers, according to Traders Agency's account of TradingView's research coverage. Insurance Journal also noted that Bloomberg reported last month Copart was separately in talks to acquire car-insurance software provider CCC Intelligent Solutions, which has been exploring a sale of its own.

Shareholder Scrutiny

Investor-rights law firm Halper Sadeh is reviewing whether ACV's board secured a fair price at $10.50 and whether there were potential board conflicts, according to StocksToTrade. Separately, shareholders holding about 4.1% of ACV stock have already signed agreements to tender into the offer, per Traders Agency's account of the merger filing.

Bottom Line

Copart is paying a roughly 45% premium to ACV's unaffected price to fold a fast-growing but still-unprofitable dealer marketplace into its salvage-auction network, funded entirely with cash on hand and carrying no financing contingency. The companies describe the businesses as adjacent rather than overlapping, and Copart's own timeline points to EPS neutrality in year one before accretion in fiscal 2028. Whether regulators, competing bidders or ACV's remaining shareholders raise objections before the tender offer closes will determine how closely the transaction tracks the terms announced on September 10.

Common Trading Mistake on “Exciting” Days

Traders Agency Team — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 16:00:13 GMT

Hey friend,

We got some retail sales and housing market data this morning.

Retail sales showed a strong increase after last month’s dip – one that also came in ahead of expectations.

However, housing prices came in somewhat below expectations.

Of course, the big news is the Fed decision – and post-decision press conference – happening in a couple of hours.

Let’s see how the markets have been moving.

The Daily Direction

Note: All indexes closed lower yesterday but opened generally higher this morning – sending the medium-term directions of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq back into upward territory.

The Daily Nugget

Don’t confuse a catalyst with a setup.

A Fed decision can send a stock flying.

So can earnings.

A new contract.

A takeover rumor.

Whatever.

But the headline itself doesn’t automatically give you a good trade.

The setup should already be there.

Maybe the stock has been tightening up for days.

Maybe there’s a clear resistance level.

Maybe you already know where you’d get out if the move fails.

Then the catalyst hits and suddenly buyers push it through.

That’s very different from seeing a stock jump 10% on news and deciding you need to get involved.

One is a setup getting triggered.

The other is just a move you noticed late.

So this afternoon, don’t ask which stock reacted the most.

Look for the stock that was already set up well before the reaction came.

The Traders Agency Team

P.S. In just a few hours at 3 p.m. Eastern today, Ross is sitting down for a LIVE post-Fed strategy session.

He’ll break down the market’s reaction and show you the breakout pattern that appeared before moves like:

Rhythm Pharmaceuticals’ +163% in seven weeks…

Nine Energy Service’s +270% in 10 weeks…

And Iris Energy’s +148% in just two days.

He’ll also show you how he uses the setup to determine where to buy, where to take profits, and where to get out if the trade fails.

Click here to lock in your free seat for today’s LIVE session if you haven’t yet…

And Ross will see you in just a bit at 3 p.m. ET.

P.P.S. If you’re planning to attend on a mobile device, make sure you download the presentation app now so you don’t miss anything when it starts. See you there.

iOS: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/goto/id1465614785
Android: https://play.google.com/store/search?q=goto&c=apps

JPMorgan Profit Rises 13% to $16.5 Billion as Dealmaking and Trading Fuel Q1 2026 Beat, but Bank Trims 2026 Interest-Income Outlook

Traders Agency Team — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 15:15:22 GMT

JPMorgan Chase reported first-quarter 2026 profit of $16.5 billion, a 13% increase from a year earlier, as a rebound in investment banking fees and trading revenue outpaced a modest downgrade to the bank's full-year net interest income guidance. Earnings came in at $5.94 per share, comfortably ahead of Wall Street estimates, according to Yahoo Finance and Proactive Investors.

Dealmaking and Trading Drive the Headline Numbers

Year-over-year growth in JPMorgan's dealmaking and trading revenue lines, Q1 2026 vs. Q1 2025, per Yahoo Finance.

Investment banking fees jumped 28% year over year to $2.88 billion, according to both outlets. Proactive Investors attributed the gain to "stronger merger advisory and equity underwriting activity," and Yahoo Finance broke out the underlying components: fees from advising on mergers and acquisitions rose 82% from the year-ago quarter, while equity underwriting fees, including initial public offerings, climbed 46%.

Markets revenue, which Yahoo Finance described as trading revenue, rose 20% to $11.6 billion. Proactive Investors separately reported that assets under management reached $4.8 trillion, up 16%, while average loans grew 11% and deposits rose 7% from a year earlier. Total debit- and credit-card spending was up 9% versus the first quarter of 2025, per Yahoo Finance, pointing to steady consumer activity alongside the institutional strength.

Revenue and EPS Beat Estimates, Though Reported Totals Differ Slightly

The two outlets cited somewhat different top-line figures. Yahoo Finance reported net revenue of $49.8 billion, up 10% from $45.3 billion in the first quarter of last year. Proactive Investors put revenue at $50.54 billion, above the $49.17 billion analysts had forecast. Based on Proactive Investors' figures, revenue exceeded the forecast by $1.37 billion, or roughly 2.8% (50.54 minus 49.17, divided by 49.17), by our calculation.

On earnings per share, Yahoo Finance cited a Bloomberg-compiled consensus of $5.43, while Proactive Investors cited a $5.45 estimate. Using Proactive Investors' numbers, actual EPS of $5.94 beat the $5.45 estimate by $0.49, or about 9% (5.94 minus 5.45, divided by 5.45), by our calculation.

2026 Net Interest Income Guidance Trimmed

JPMorgan lowered its 2026 net interest income outlook to $103 billion, down $1.5 billion from its February forecast, according to Yahoo Finance. The bank attributed the reduction to a projection for slightly lower markets revenue and said the figure excluding markets was left unchanged. By our calculation, adding back the $1.5 billion cut implies the prior February forecast stood at roughly $104.5 billion (103 plus 1.5).

The revision follows earlier commentary reported by TIKR from JPMorgan's third-quarter 2025 results, when the bank offered preliminary 2026 guidance for net interest income excluding markets of around $95 billion and flagged that Wall Street's roughly $100 billion consensus expense estimate for 2026 "looks a little bit low," with formal guidance promised for the fourth quarter. First-quarter 2026 net interest income itself climbed 9% from a year earlier to $25.3 billion, Yahoo Finance reported.

Credit Costs Came In Lighter Than Expected

JPMorgan set aside $2.5 billion for loan losses in the quarter, roughly $500 million below what analysts had anticipated, Proactive Investors reported. That compares with $3.3 billion of provisions a year earlier. Yahoo Finance also reported that the bank set aside lower provisions for credit losses in its consumer bank compared with the previous quarter, and that total debit- and credit-card spending rose 9% versus the first quarter of 2025. Read together, and as our interpretation rather than a link drawn by either outlet, those two data points point to stable consumer credit and spending trends in the quarter.

Dimon Flags a Complex Risk Backdrop

Chief Executive Jamie Dimon paired the strong results with a caution about the operating environment. According to Yahoo Finance, Dimon pointed to "an increasingly complex set of risks," including "geopolitical tensions and wars, energy price volatility, trade uncertainty, large global fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices." Proactive Investors quoted Dimon saying, "While we cannot predict how these risks and uncertainties will ultimately play out, they are significant and they reinforce why we prepare the Firm for a wide range of environments."

Other Banks Reporting the Same Day

JPMorgan's results landed alongside other major bank earnings. Yahoo Finance reported that Citigroup's profit jumped 42% to $5.8 billion and that Wells Fargo's net income rose 7% to $5.3 billion in the same period.

Muted Share Reaction

Despite the earnings beat, JPMorgan shares showed little movement. Yahoo Finance said the stock fell slightly in early Tuesday trading, while Proactive Investors described shares as little changed on Tuesday morning following results that exceeded analyst expectations on trading and investment banking strength.

Bottom Line

JPMorgan's first-quarter results showed clear strength in the parts of the business most tied to capital markets activity, with investment banking fees and trading revenue both posting double-digit percentage gains and credit costs coming in lighter than feared. The trim to 2026 net interest income guidance, attributed by the bank to markets-related revenue rather than the core lending business, was modest in scale but notable given the size of the bank's balance sheet. Dimon's caution about geopolitical and fiscal risks suggests management views the current strength as coexisting with, rather than eliminating, broader uncertainty heading further into 2026.

U.S. Retail Sales Rose 1.2% in August, Beating Forecasts as Control Group Jumped 1.4%

Traders Agency Team — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 13:44:20 GMT

U.S. retail sales rose 1.2% in August 2026 from July, comfortably outpacing the 0.8% gain economists polled by Reuters had expected, according to the Commerce Department's Census Bureau. The advance was the largest monthly increase in five months and followed a revised 0.5% decline in July, itself the first monthly drop in nine months, Reuters reported via Yahoo Finance.

The report's core measure was even stronger. Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, the so-called control group that Reuters said corresponds most closely with the consumer spending component of GDP, surged 1.4% after an unrevised 0.4% July decline. Economists had forecast a 0.4% rise in that measure, meaning the control group beat expectations by a full percentage point (1.4% actual minus 0.4% forecast, our calculation).

The Headline Numbers

Reuters said the consensus for headline retail sales was 0.8%, with individual forecasts ranging from 0.2% to 1.1%, making August's 1.2% print above even the top of that range. That represents a 0.4 percentage point beat versus the median forecast (1.2% actual minus 0.8% consensus, our calculation). Separately, tradingeconomics.com listed a comparable consensus of 0.8% against its own forecast model estimate of 0.7%, both of which the actual print exceeded.

July's decline was revised to a smaller drop than first reported. The Census Bureau's initial July estimate of a 0.6% decline was revised up to a 0.5% decline, according to both Reuters and tradingeconomics.com. That upward revision means the economy entered August slightly stronger than earlier data had suggested, though the direction of the month, a decline, was unchanged.

What Drove the Gain

August 2026 U.S. retail sales, percent change by category, Census Bureau data via tradingeconomics.com, reported by Reuters/Yahoo Finance.

The increase was broad across categories, tradingeconomics.com data show. Gasoline stations posted the largest single-category increase at 3.1%, followed by nonstore retailers (2.6%), miscellaneous store retailers (1.9%), electronics and appliance stores (1.6%), and food services and drinking places (1.2%). Motor vehicle and parts dealers rose a more modest 0.6%. Building material and garden equipment stores were the only category to decline, slipping 0.2%.

Reuters noted that the gasoline station gain partially reflected higher prices at the pump rather than pure volume growth, since the retail sales report is not adjusted for inflation. Reuters also attributed the broader rebound to households stepping up vehicle purchases and back-to-school shopping, calling the report a sign of the economy's resilience even as consumers grow more anxious about high inflation.

Consumer Behavior Beneath the Headline

Reuters reported that spending is being supported by steady wage growth and recent stock market gains, and that households are saving less and tapping into their nest eggs to fund purchases. At the same time, Reuters said consumers have become more selective and are seeking lower-priced goods, and that consumer sentiment deteriorated this month even as the hard spending data came in strong. Reuters further reported that households have kept spending despite stubbornly high inflation, which it linked to an oil price shock and supply-chain strains tied to the U.S.-led war with Iran.

What It Means for Growth and the Fed

Reuters said the retail strength, combined with elevated price pressures and a labor market it described as regaining its footing after a wobbly summer, reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates later the same day the data were released. Reuters also reported that third-quarter growth estimates currently exceed a 2.0% annualized rate, up from 1.5% growth in the prior quarter.

Those are reported expectations and growth tracking figures attributed to Reuters, not independently confirmed projections, and they describe conditions as of the data's release rather than a forecast of where rates or growth will ultimately land. For scale, tradingeconomics.com data show that U.S. retail sales have averaged 0.39% monthly growth since 1992, with an all-time high of 19.3% in May 2020 and a record low of negative 14.4% in April 2020, underscoring that August's 1.2% gain, while a clear beat versus consensus, sits well within the normal range of a resilient consumer economy rather than at a historical extreme.

Bottom Line

August's retail sales report beat expectations on both the headline and control-group measures tracked by Reuters and tradingeconomics.com, with the control group's 1.4% jump the more consequential number for GDP accounting. Part of the headline strength reflects higher gasoline prices rather than pure volume, and Reuters said consumer sentiment weakened even as spending held up, a combination that suggests underlying resilience is not free of strain. Reuters said the report further strengthened market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase later the same day, and reported third-quarter growth estimates above a 2.0% annualized rate, though how durable that pace proves will depend on incoming data beyond this single month.

This Fed Setup Could Get Violent

Ross Givens — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 13:30:00 GMT

Hey, Ross here:

Today could be a big one.

The Fed announces its rate decision at 2 p.m. Eastern…

And Wall Street has already made up its mind about what happens next.

Take a look:

Chart of the Day

Almost every major bank on this list expects a rate hike today.

And most don’t think the Fed stops there.

Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and RBC are looking for as much as 75 basis points of tightening in 2026.

A whole pile of others expect another 50 basis points.

So the message from Wall Street is pretty clear:

Higher for longer.

And the Fed still has room to squeeze.

This is the Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index.

The lower it goes, the looser financial conditions are.

Right now it’s sitting around -0.56.

In other words, despite all the talk about tight money, financial conditions are still pretty loose.

That gives the Fed less reason to back off quickly.

And you can already see some strain underneath the market.

This is the Value Line Geometric Index, which gives us a much better look at how the median stock is doing.

It just pushed all the way back to the same area that stopped it in 2021…

And got rejected again.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is miles above where it traded back then.

Think about that.

The headline index has marched higher for years…

While the median stock has spent nearly five years trying to get through the same ceiling.

And traders are positioning accordingly.

Speculators are modestly net short U.S. equities overall.

But look at the spread underneath.

Nasdaq-100 positioning is still net long.

Russell 2000 positioning is nearly 20% net short.

That’s a monster gap.

The market isn’t simply bearish.

Traders have decided which stocks they think are going to get hit hardest.

And that’s where things can get fun – and lucrative.

Insight of the Day

The harder the market leans one way, the more explosive the exception can be.

Small caps are getting shorted hard.

The median stock just failed at major resistance.

And Wall Street expects the Fed to keep tightening.

There’s your bearish case.

Now imagine a stock sitting right in the middle of all that suddenly blows through resistance anyway.

That grabs my attention.

Because now the stock is doing something it shouldn’t be doing.

Buyers are overpowering a lousy backdrop.

Momentum starts building.

And if the stock is heavily shorted, a breakout can force bearish traders to start buying shares back…

Adding even more fuel to the move.

That’s how breakouts can go from normal to violent.

That’s why later today at 3 p.m. Eastern…

Just one hour after the Fed announcement…

I’m sitting down for a LIVE post-Fed strategy session where I’ll break down the market’s reaction…

Then I’ll show you the chart pattern I use to hunt for stocks that can break away from the broader market – even when the backdrop looks ugly.

It’s the same pattern that showed up before Rhythm Pharmaceuticals surged 163% in seven weeks… Nine Energy Service climbed 270% in 10 weeks… and Iris Energy exploded 148% in just two days.

I’ll also show you the new stocks going onto my watchlist…

And walk you through exactly where I’d buy, what profit I’d target, and where I’d get out if the trade turns against me.

Click here to guarantee your free seat for today’s LIVE post-Fed strategy session if you haven’t yet…

And I’ll see you at 3 p.m. ET.

P.S. If you’re planning to attend on a mobile device, make sure you download the presentation app now so you don’t miss anything when it starts. See you there.

iOS: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/goto/id1465614785
Android: https://play.google.com/store/search?q=goto&c=apps

Customer Story of the Day

“Ross Givens & Traders Agency have helped me learn & identify market patterns with analysis as to WHEN and how to properly enter and exit trades, with profit!

It’s been 6 months so far, and the education has been excellent, with the profitable trades following!”

Ross Givens
Editor, Stock Surge Daily

J.B. Hunt Warns Q3 Earnings Will Fall 5%-10% From Q2 as Costs Rise; Shares Drop as Much as 9%-10%

Traders Agency Team — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 12:14:29 GMT

J.B. Hunt Transport Services told investors this week that it now expects earnings to fall 5% to 10% from the second quarter to the third quarter, a rare intra-quarter disclosure that sent shares tumbling in premarket trading. The trucking and logistics company made the comments at the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference, according to Yahoo Finance, citing TheFly.

What J.B. Hunt Disclosed

According to TradingPedia, J.B. Hunt told investors it now anticipates second-quarter to third-quarter earnings will decline within that 5%-to-10% range. The same figure was reported by Yahoo Finance, which attributed the comments to remarks made at the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference and sourced them to TheFly.

Shares of J.B. Hunt fell as much as 9% in premarket trading on Wednesday, per Finviz, while Yahoo Finance separately reported a premarket decline of about 10%. Notably, the company's own update did not include a revised earnings-per-share figure or a detailed breakdown of the expected cost increases, according to Finviz.

Both TradingPedia and Finviz reported that J.B. Hunt emphasized it does not normally provide updates on trends within a quarter, underscoring that the disclosure marked a departure from its usual practice. J.B. Hunt is scheduled to report full third-quarter results on Oct. 15, per Yahoo Finance.

Cost Pressures Behind the Warning

Barclays analyst Brandon Oglenski said higher fuel prices and surcharges likely drove the negative earnings revision, per TradingPedia and Finviz.

Barclays analyst Brandon Oglenski, as cited by TradingPedia, said the guidance is being hurt by increased costs even though the company held "a quite upbeat discussion on current freight market fundamentals that appear to have finally inflected positively from a demand perspective." Oglenski added that higher fuel prices and surcharges are likely playing a significant role in the negative near-term earnings revision, a point reported by both TradingPedia and Finviz.

Yahoo Finance, citing TheFly, reported that Bank of America pointed to a different set of pressures in its own note, saying the pre-announcement reflected rapidly rising drayage costs and delays in fuel-surcharge recovery. BofA estimated these pressures would push third-quarter earnings per share down to roughly $1.72 to $1.81, consistent with the 5%-to-10% sequential decline management flagged.

The cost strain was already visible in the company's second-quarter results. Yahoo Finance reported that purchased transportation costs rose across parts of the business, including a 54% year-over-year increase in the Integrated Capacity Solutions segment, and that J.B. Hunt separately cited higher purchased transportation costs as a headwind in its Truckload business. Those second-quarter results, per the same Yahoo Finance report, showed overall revenue up 19% year over year to $3.50 billion and operating income up 32% year over year to $259.5 million.

Analyst Reaction

Barclays and BofA lowered their J.B. Hunt price targets after the warning, per Yahoo Finance citing TheFly.

Two major brokerages cut price targets after the warning. Barclays lowered its target to $285 from $300 while maintaining an Equal Weight rating, citing higher purchased transportation and driver recruitment costs, according to Yahoo Finance, which sourced the note to TheFly. That is a $15 reduction, or 5% below the prior target (our calculation: (285 − 300) ÷ 300 = −5%).

Bank of America cut its target more sharply, to $302 from $340, while keeping a Buy rating, per Yahoo Finance, citing TheFly. That is a $38 reduction, or about 11.2% below the prior target (our calculation: (302 − 340) ÷ 340 = −11.2%). BofA also lowered its Q3 EPS estimate by 18%, its 2026 estimate by 9% and its 2027 estimate by 6% following the update, according to the same report.

Despite the near-term cost concerns, Yahoo Finance reported that Barclays said management remains bullish on a positive inflection in freight demand, particularly in intermodal. This reported view aligns with TradingPedia's characterization of the disclosure as contrasting an improving demand backdrop against near-term cost pressure.

Context: Freight Demand Versus Costs

The warning arrives after a strong run for J.B. Hunt shares. Yahoo Finance reported that JBHT shares had risen around 39% so far this year before the announcement, compared with a gain of over 12% for the Vanguard Morningstar Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR), which holds the stock. That is a gap of 27 percentage points, meaning the stock's year-to-date gain was roughly 225% larger than the ETF's (our calculation: (39 − 12) ÷ 12 = 225%). The comparison is arithmetic only, but it illustrates, as an interpretation of those two reported figures, how far the stock had run ahead of a broader small-cap value benchmark before this week's pullback.

Analysts covering the name, as reported by TradingPedia and Yahoo Finance, characterized the situation as one where freight demand signals were turning more constructive even as near-term cost inflation, tied to fuel, surcharges, drayage and purchased transportation, was pressuring the bottom line faster than pricing or volume gains could offset it. This is an interpretation offered by covering analysts and reported by the cited outlets, not a company-issued explanation, since J.B. Hunt's own update reportedly did not detail the specific cost drivers.

Bottom Line

J.B. Hunt's unusual mid-quarter warning of a 5%-to-10% sequential earnings decline, paired with a premarket share drop of up to roughly 9%-10%, points to a near-term profitability squeeze from rising costs that multiple sell-side analysts have linked to fuel, surcharges and purchased transportation expenses. Whether the freight demand improvement analysts flagged is enough to offset these pressures will likely become clearer when the company reports full third-quarter results on Oct. 15.

Von der Leyen Offers Canada Path to Become EU's First 'Associate Member'

Traders Agency Team — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 11:32:00 GMT

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the European Parliament on Wednesday that the European Union is opening the door for Canada to become the bloc's first associate member, a proposal unveiled during her annual State of the European Union address in Strasbourg, according to CNBC and POLITICO Europe.

What von der Leyen said

Ursula von der Leyen delivers her State of the European Union address in Strasbourg on Sept. 16, 2026, with Mark Carney in attendance. | Jean-Christophe Verhaegen/AFP via Getty Images (POLITICO Europe)

Speaking directly to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who was in the chamber, von der Leyen said: "And, dear Mark, I said we must urgently reimagine our partnerships so I would like to work with you on opening the door for Canada to being the first associate member of the European Union," according to CNBC's reporting on the address.

CNBC described the announcement as a significant change in EU policy and a signal of a major deepening of ties between Brussels and Ottawa, noting that von der Leyen said the bloc wants to bring the relationship with Canada "to the highest level possible."

Von der Leyen framed the initiative as an evolution beyond the existing EU-Canada trade pact, saying, "We will move from CETA to an alliance for the future, to create a common prosperity and economic security space," per CNBC. The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, which provisionally took effect in 2017, already eliminated 99% of all tariff lines between the two sides, CNBC reported.

Scope of the offer remains undefined

The reported remarks did not lay out a legal mechanism for associate membership, a treaty basis, or a ratification process among the EU's 27 member states. Nor did von der Leyen's comments, as relayed by CNBC, attach sector-by-sector timelines or any dollar or euro figures to the initiative. What she did pledge, according to CNBC, was cooperation with Canada on artificial intelligence, climate change, geopolitics and Arctic security, framed around the observation that the EU and Canada "see the world with the same eyes." Beyond that framing, the specifics of what associate membership would entail in practice were not detailed in the coverage of the speech.

Carney's position and next steps

Mark Carney, Roberta Metsola and Ursula von der Leyen arrive for the State of the Union address at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France on Sept. 16, 2026. | Jean-Christophe Verhaegen/AFP via Getty Images (POLITICO Europe)

Carney attended the Strasbourg address and is scheduled to speak to EU lawmakers on Thursday, CNBC reported. Carney had previously said Ottawa was keen to pursue a "unique security and economic alliance" with Europe, but not full EU membership, according to the same CNBC report. No negotiating timetable for associate membership was disclosed in the reported remarks, and Carney's direct response to von der Leyen's offer was not included in the CNBC or POLITICO Europe coverage beyond his attendance at the speech.

Reaction from economists and lawmakers

Asked by CNBC whether the push to embrace Canada as the EU's first associate member amounted to a historic moment, Berenberg chief economist Holger Schmieding said, "I think this is a big step, indeed." He added that the move is "not necessarily against the U.S., but it is clearly in favor of making us less dependent on the U.S. and less dependent on China," characterizing deeper ties with "like-minded democracies" as part of a broader economic realignment.

Bernd Lange, who chairs the European Parliament's trade committee, told CNBC that "unpredictable" U.S. policy and "aggressive industrial policy by China" make it important for the EU to strengthen ties with democratic countries, citing Canada as one example. Lange also said the EU should pursue stronger economic ties with Brazil, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea, according to CNBC.

Context: a trade war backdrop

The overture comes as Canada remains locked in a trade dispute with the United States, having pledged to match President Donald Trump's tariffs dollar for dollar, CNBC reported. That backdrop lends context to Schmieding's framing of the associate-member proposal as part of an EU effort to diversify economic partnerships away from reliance on both Washington and Beijing, though this is an interpretation offered by the economist rather than a stated EU policy objective.

Bottom Line

Von der Leyen's proposal marks a notable rhetorical shift in EU-Canada relations, explicitly framed as going beyond the existing CETA trade agreement toward what she called an "alliance for the future." But the reported remarks left the legal architecture, sector-specific commitments, financial scale and negotiating timeline undefined. Carney's own address to EU lawmakers on Thursday may offer the next concrete signal of how Ottawa intends to respond to an offer that, for now, remains a proposal rather than a settled arrangement.

SK Hynix and Intel in Early Talks Over First-Ever U.S. Memory Chip Production, Reuters Reports

Traders Agency Team — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 11:16:37 GMT

SK Hynix is in exploratory talks with Intel about a deal that would have the South Korean company manufacture memory chips on U.S. soil for the first time, according to three people familiar with the discussions cited by Reuters. One source described the talks as exploratory and stressed that no decisions have been made, adding that SK Hynix might also consider other ways to structure any arrangement. Shares of both companies rose on the report, though the size of the move varied depending on which outlet's snapshot is used.

What Reuters Reported

Illustrative fabrication scene reflecting reported talks for SK Hynix's first U.S. memory chip manufacturing, per Reuters.

Under one scenario described to Reuters, SK Hynix would lease part of Intel's long-delayed chipmaking campus in Ohio. Under another, the two companies could form a venture that also includes major cloud firms said to be keen on locking in memory chip supplies, according to two of the sources. No individual cloud company was named in the reporting, and Reuters said it was not able to learn what types of chips SK Hynix might manufacture in Ohio if an agreement is struck. SK Hynix's existing product lineup spans DRAM, NAND flash and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), but no production volumes for a potential Ohio deal have been reported.

In a statement to Reuters, SK Hynix said it is "reviewing various measures, including establishing additional production bases, to strengthen the competitiveness of its memory business," but that "no matters have been determined at this stage." Intel declined to comment on what it called speculation, but said it was continuing with investments in Ohio to ready the site.

Ohio's Repeatedly Delayed Timeline

Intel announced the Ohio campus in 2022, pledging at least $20 billion with a potential investment of roughly $100 billion across as many as eight fabs, and originally targeted 2025 for production from the first two plants, according to TradingView's account of the Reuters reporting. That schedule has slipped repeatedly. Intel now expects to complete the first fab in 2030 and begin operating it in 2030 or 2031, with the second fab completed in 2031 and starting production in 2032 — five to six years past the original 2025 production target for the first plant (2030 or 2031 versus 2025) and seven years past it for the second (2032 versus 2025). Facing financial strain, Intel announced large-scale layoffs and investment cuts last year, according to the Korea JoongAng Daily.

Sensitive Technology and Seoul's Leverage

Any agreement to produce advanced memory such as HBM or even standard DRAM in the U.S. could run into opposition from the South Korean government, since those technologies are considered sensitive, three sources told Reuters. Asked about a potential SK Hynix plan to produce chips in the U.S., South Korea's trade ministry said any decision would be at the company's discretion, but that if it involved a "national core technology," it would be subject to review under the Industrial Technology Protection Act. The U.S. Commerce Department did not respond to a request for comment on the reported talks.

Two of the sources said this leaves SK Hynix in a difficult position: Seoul is seeking to use any U.S. investment by the company as leverage in broader trade negotiations, while Washington is pressing SK Hynix to commit quickly to a U.S. expansion. Seoul has separately urged SK Hynix and rival Samsung Electronics to accelerate plans for a new cluster of chipmaking facilities in South Korea's southwest, described in TradingView's account as four new memory fabs within an 800 trillion won ($518 billion) investment. Reuters reported that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has threatened tariffs of up to 100% on South Korean and Taiwanese companies unless they commit to increased production on American soil, and TradingView reported that he said in July he was discussing U.S. memory output directly with SK Hynix and Samsung. Manufacturing semiconductors in the U.S. also costs significantly more than in South Korea because of higher labor and construction costs and the concentration of the industry's supply chain in Asia, two of the sources said.

Reuters, in the version of its report carried by Euronext, noted that some $150 billion of South Korea's proposed $350 billion U.S. investment package has been earmarked for shipbuilding, while the remaining $200 billion is undecided. The shipbuilding allocation is therefore $50 billion smaller than the undecided remainder (150 minus 200 equals negative 50, or 25% less). Our reading of those figures — an interpretation, not a source finding — is that Seoul still has a large pool of unallocated capital to direct across competing priorities; the reporting did not link that remainder to any specific memory chip commitment.

Why SK Hynix, and Why Now

SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won said in July that the company faces enormous pressure and lobbying from customers and countries to supply more chips, according to Reuters. "I think we need to build a factory in the United States," he told reporters. "If possible, I believe we should build it." Reuters also reported that SK Hynix completed a secondary Nasdaq listing in July and currently has only a chip packaging facility under construction in Indiana. CNBC reported that the company broke ground last month on that first U.S. facility and that CEO Kwak Noh-Jung said the $4 billion Indiana factory will make the state a "key HBM production base in America" by 2030.

SK Hynix is the world's second-largest memory-chip manufacturer and the leading supplier of HBM used in AI accelerators, with a multiyear agreement covering memory for Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform, according to TradingView's account of the Reuters reporting. CNBC reported that its South Korea-listed stock is up 400% over the last year amid an AI-driven memory shortage and that the company announced in June plans to double capacity over the next five years.

This is not the first round of speculation linking the two companies. In July, Intel was reported by Semafor, as relayed by Yahoo Finance Canada, to be seeking a partner to help operate the Ohio facility rather than sell it outright, with SK Hynix among the candidates considered and no formal negotiations underway at the time. SK Hynix subsequently denied a Korean media report that it was negotiating to acquire the Ohio campus outright, saying only that it was "looking for various acquisition and investment opportunities." Separately, Intel recently hired former SK Hynix CEO Lee Seok-hee as executive vice president overseeing its foundry division, part of an effort to strengthen back-end capabilities such as yield improvement, according to the Korea JoongAng Daily.

Market Reaction

Reports of the talks moved both stocks, though the reported magnitude differs by outlet and timing. Reuters, via WSAU, reported Intel shares surged 5.2% in pre-market trading Wednesday while SK Hynix's stock finished 4.1% higher in Seoul. CNBC reported Intel up 3.2% and SK Hynix's Nasdaq-listed shares 2.6% higher in premarket trading at the time of its report. TradingView separately described Intel jumping 5% and SK Hynix climbing 3% in overnight trading heading into Wednesday. The spread across these snapshots most likely reflects the different times and venues at which each outlet took its reading rather than conflicting data, though that is our interpretation and none of the reports addresses the discrepancy.

A deal, if reached, would relieve pressure on Intel, which has been struggling financially and is part-owned by the U.S. government after converting $8.9 billion of unpaid CHIPS Act grants into a 10% equity stake last year, according to TradingView's account of the reporting, which also cited CEO Lip-Bu Tan's pledge of "no more blank checks." Intel's foundry division posted a $2.2 billion loss last year and a further $2.4 billion loss in the first quarter of this year, according to the Korea JoongAng Daily's July reporting. CNBC reported that winning marquee customers for its manufacturing, or foundry, business is a key pillar of Tan's strategy, while Reuters characterized any completed arrangement as a big win for the Trump administration's push to get chipmakers to build in the United States amid an acute, AI-driven memory shortage.

Bottom Line

The reported talks between SK Hynix and Intel remain exploratory, with sources telling Reuters that no decisions have been made and that a lease, a cloud-backed venture, or another structure entirely could all still be on the table. The outcome hinges on unresolved questions, including whether Seoul would classify any transferred memory technology as a national core technology requiring formal review, whether Intel's repeatedly delayed Ohio timeline can accommodate a new tenant, and how Washington's tariff pressure and Seoul's domestic investment demands are ultimately reconciled. Investors should treat the stock moves as a market reaction to a reported possibility, not confirmation of a finalized agreement.

Senate Blocks Clarity Act in Failed Cloture Vote, Crypto Markets Slide

Traders Agency Team — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 22:12:34 GMT

The Senate on Tuesday voted to block the Clarity Act from advancing, halting the crypto industry's push for a comprehensive market structure framework and leaving the bill stalled after months of bipartisan negotiations, according to CNBC. The procedural defeat came despite last-minute revisions aimed at winning over Democratic holdouts, and it now leaves the industry facing an uncertain legislative timeline heading into the midterm election season.

The Vote and an Unresolved Tally Discrepancy

CNBC reported that the motion to proceed drew 50 votes in favor and 49 against, well short of the 60 votes needed to clear the procedural hurdle. Seeking Alpha, in its own report, described the outcome as a "49-50 cloture vote," reversing the order of the two figures cited by CNBC. The discrepancy in the reported roll call remains unresolved based on the available reporting.

CNBC characterized the result as "a stunning loss for the crypto industry, which had exuded confidence that enough senators would vote to advance the bill."

Ethics Provisions at the Center of the Breakdown

According to CNBC, Republican leaders released a revised version of the bill on Sunday that added new ethics restrictions intended to address Democratic concerns about public officials profiting from crypto ventures. Those changes, the outlet reported, were not enough to resolve the remaining opposition.

CNBC reported that Democrats expressed frustration leading up to the vote that Republican negotiators had not met their demands regarding ethics safeguards tied to profits gained from crypto ventures by President Donald Trump and his family.

Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., described as a key Democratic negotiator, told CNBC before the vote: "The compromise we had was a good ethics compromise that would have bought a lot of Dem votes." Gallego went further, according to CNBC, accusing Republicans of caring "more about making sure the president keeps making money than actually bringing regulations" and thereby "failing the whole system."

On the Republican side, Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., the industry's leading Senate champion, told reporters earlier Tuesday that "it's over" if the procedural vote failed, CNBC reported.

A Narrow Procedural Step With a Long Road Ahead

The vote itself only concerned whether the bill could move to Senate debate. CNBC noted that even a successful outcome would have required the measure to survive further Senate negotiations and votes before clearing the House and reaching the president's desk. As drafted, the bill would have established a crypto regulatory framework dividing oversight between the SEC and the CFTC, set registration requirements, and strengthened anti-money-laundering protections, per CNBC's reporting.

Calendar Pressure Complicates a Revote

CNBC reported that reviving the bill is complicated by the legislative calendar. The midterm election is seven weeks away, senators are scheduled to leave Washington in early October and not return until after the election, and the House recesses even earlier, at the end of this week. CNBC also reported that Tuesday's vote might pave the way for Fairshake, a crypto political action committee, to donate to candidates running against senators who voted to block the bill.

Market Reaction

CNBC reported that bitcoin was last down 3%, while Coinbase shares slid 8% and Circle shares fell 10%, amid what the outlet described as a broader market sell-off. Seeking Alpha's report on the vote also referenced liquidations across crypto markets.

Industry Outlook Without Legislation

CNBC reported that the failed vote likely means the crypto industry will have to wait until next year for clearer rules. The outlet noted that although executives and investors say legislation would lend certainty and help attract long-term capital, much of the industry has resigned itself to the likelihood that regulatory momentum may have to be built outside of Congress.

In the absence of a comprehensive framework, CNBC pointed to regulators moving separately: the SEC has proposed allowing startups to sell as much as $75 million of tokens without registering, while the CFTC recently approved the first bitcoin perpetual futures in the U.S. These agency-level actions, as reported, illustrate how parts of the industry are already adapting to operate under the existing regulatory patchwork rather than waiting for statutory clarity.

Bottom Line

Tuesday's cloture failure was a procedural setback rather than a final verdict on crypto market structure legislation, but the combination of unresolved ethics disputes and a compressed legislative calendar — with senators due to leave Washington in early October and the House recessing this week, per CNBC — suggests a near-term revote is unlikely. That is an interpretation of the reported calendar constraints, not a stated conclusion by either outlet. With bitcoin, Coinbase and Circle all moving lower in the immediate aftermath, the episode underscores how sensitive crypto-linked assets remain to Washington's legislative signals, even on votes that only determine whether debate can begin.

Boeing Said to Near Revived 150-Jet 737 MAX Deal With Turkish Airlines After Engine-Maintenance Dispute

Traders Agency Team — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 20:44:08 GMT

Boeing is nearing an agreement to sell 150 737 MAX jets to Turkish Airlines after a dispute over engine maintenance had delayed the order, Reuters reported on Sept. 15, 2026, citing people familiar with the negotiations, according to Seeking Alpha's relay of the Reuters report. A separate write-up carried by TradingView framed the development as Boeing "salvaging" a delayed order, though the full text of that account was not accessible for this article.

What Reuters Reported

The accessible excerpt of the Reuters report says the purchase is "part of a broader" transaction, but the passage ends before describing what else the broader arrangement includes. No further detail on aircraft mix, delivery timing, financing terms or engine selection appears in the accessible reporting.

Notably, no comment from Boeing, Turkish Airlines or any engine maker is contained in the accessible reporting, and the accessible material does not address whether board or regulatory approval is still pending. Readers should treat the near-deal characterization as sourced to unnamed people described by Reuters as familiar with the negotiations, not as an on-the-record confirmation from either company.

A Deal With a Long History

The 150-jet figure lines up with a commitment Boeing and Turkish Airlines already announced roughly a year earlier. On Sept. 25, 2025, the airline declared its intent to purchase up to 150 more 737 MAX airplanes, which Boeing described at the time as set to become the carrier's largest Boeing single-aisle order once finalized, according to a Boeing newsroom release. That same announcement paired the MAX commitment with an order for up to 75 Boeing 787 Dreamliners, and Boeing said the combined 787 and 737 MAX orders would double Turkish Airlines' Boeing fleet, which the manufacturer said at the time comprised more than 200 Boeing jets, including 787-9, 777, 737 MAX, Next-Generation 737 and 777 Freighter aircraft.

The MAX order also has roots in a much larger ambition. Turkish Airlines has been in talks with Boeing since at least mid-2023, when it first floated a potential 600-aircraft mega-order to be split between Boeing and Airbus, according to ch-aviation, which cited comments from a Turkish Airlines executive named Eksi that the carrier aimed to purchase around 300 jets from Boeing, including 737-8s and 787s. That February 2025 report described a six-month delay to the order, though the accessible material does not specify whether that earlier delay is the same engine-maintenance dispute Reuters referenced in its latest report.

Why the Order Matters to Turkish Airlines' Fleet Plans

Source: Boeing newsroom release and ch-aviation

Boeing's September 2025 release quoted the airline tying the aircraft directly to its long-term growth target. Turkish Airlines' chairman said the addition of the advanced Boeing aircraft would "become a significant element supporting Turkish Airlines' 2033 Vision of expanding our fleet to 800 aircraft." Ch-aviation reported that the flag carrier plans to double its fleet to 800 aircraft by 2033 as part of its "100th Anniversary Strategy," and that delivery delays from both Boeing and Airbus may hinder that goal, prompting the airline to lease more aircraft in the meantime, per Eksi's comments to the outlet.

What Isn't Yet Confirmed

Several of the specifics that would typically accompany a finalized jet order are absent from the accessible reporting. There is no confirmed delivery schedule, no confirmed engine selection outcome, and no confirmed pricing or financing structure tied to this particular 150-jet tranche. The accessible material also does not establish whether this represents the formal contractual conversion of the intent announced in September 2025 or a renegotiated version of it. Treating it as simply the same order moving to signature is an inference rather than a confirmed fact, since the Reuters excerpt does not make that linkage explicit.

Bottom Line

Reuters reports, through unnamed sources, that Boeing is close to finalizing a 150-jet 737 MAX order with Turkish Airlines that had been held up by a dispute over engine maintenance. The figure matches a commitment the two companies already announced in September 2025 alongside a Dreamliner order that Boeing said would double the airline's Boeing fleet, and it fits into Turkish Airlines' publicly stated goal of reaching an 800-aircraft fleet by 2033. What remains unconfirmed in the reporting available is the delivery timeframe, the engine outcome, and whether Boeing, Turkish Airlines or the engine makers have offered any on-the-record confirmation of the deal Reuters describes as near completion.

Stock Market Today: Energy Leads While S&P 500 Slips

Traders Agency Team — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 20:11:42 GMT

Energy Leads While S&P 500 Slips

Energy stocks delivered the single biggest sector move of the session, climbing while nearly everything else in the market slid. Oil prices moved higher after Saudi Arabia shuttered a key pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, CNBC reported, giving energy shares a reason to buck an otherwise sour mood.

Every major index finished lower as Treasury yields surged to multiyear highs, one day ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level since 2007 on Tuesday, according to CNBC, before easing back off its peak. CNBC reported stocks fell as traders looked ahead to the Fed decision and as yields climbed, and the session's weakest sectors included rate-sensitive corners of the market like Consumer Discretionary and Utilities, while Energy gained alongside crude.

Market Scorecard

Asset	Value	Change	% Change
S&P 500	7,585.73	-34.25	▼ -0.45%
Nasdaq Composite	25,981.57	-204.84	▼ -0.78%
Dow Jones	52,093.11	-328.09	▼ -0.63%
Russell 2000	2,868.53	-23.71	▼ -0.82%
Bitcoin	$76,028.35	-2,135.03	▼ -2.73%
Ethereum	$2,407.42	-106.99	▼ -4.25%

Data timing: 2026-09-15 session; snapshot retrieved Sep 15, 2026, 4:04 PM EDT. Prepared Sep 15, 4:11 PM EDT. Sources: Yahoo Finance via yfinance (indexes and sector ETFs), Yahoo Finance point-in-time crypto observations. Crypto values are timestamped point-in-time observations.

All four major indexes finished in the red, with small caps taking the hardest hit among equities. Crypto sold off even harder than stocks, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both posting losses well beyond the day's equity declines.

Sector Performance

Sector		Daily Change
1.Energy XLE		▲ +2.19%
2.Materials XLB		▲ +0.50%
3.Health Care XLV		▼ -0.05%
4.Real Estate XLRE		▼ -0.12%
5.Technology XLK		▼ -0.28%
6.Financials XLF		▼ -0.31%
7.Industrials XLI		▼ -0.62%
8.Consumer Staples XLP		▼ -0.82%
9.Communication Services XLC		▼ -0.95%
10.Utilities XLU		▼ -1.18%
11.Consumer Discretionary XLY		▼ -1.76%

Energy and Materials were the only two sectors to close green, with energy shares tracking a crude rally that CNBC tied to the Saudi pipeline shutdown. Consumer Discretionary brought up the rear by a wide margin. That weakness may reflect the backdrop CNBC described, in which higher rates could raise borrowing costs for already strapped consumers while fuel prices stay elevated, though no source attributes the sector's move to a single factor.

Utilities, often treated as a bond proxy, slid on a day when bond prices fell and yields climbed.

Losses in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were mitigated by strength in a handful of AI-linked names. CNBC reported that Coherent, Advanced Micro Devices, and Qualcomm all advanced Tuesday after coming under pressure in the prior trading day.

Crypto had a separate story of its own. Investing.com and Seeking Alpha both reported that bitcoin and crypto-linked stocks slid after the Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act, a regulatory bill traders had been watching. Those headlines landed on a broadly risk-off day, and digital asset losses ran well past the day's equity declines.

Looking Ahead: Next Trading Day

Time	Event	Impact
08:30 ET	Retail Sales (Aug)	MEDIUM
14:00 ET	FOMC Rate Decision	HIGH

Wednesday's session brings the event traders have been circling all week. The Fed wraps up its two-day meeting with a rate decision in the early afternoon, and CNBC reported that fed funds futures trading was leaning heavily toward a quarter-point hike heading into the announcement.

Another Fed rate hike remains a meaningful possibility, but it isn't a certainty, and the tone of the accompanying statement could matter as much as the decision itself.

The CNBC Fed Survey found that a majority of respondents now forecast at least two rate hikes over the next year, a shift from last month, when fewer than half expected any hike ahead. That doesn't determine Wednesday's outcome, but it does suggest expectations have moved in a more hawkish direction over the past month.

Retail sales data lands earlier in the morning and could add another data point on how consumers are holding up against higher borrowing costs and elevated fuel prices ahead of the Fed's announcement.

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Don’t Confuse This With Opportunity

Traders Agency Team — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 20:00:30 GMT

Hey friend,

Nothing much on the economic calendar today.

The Fed begins its monetary policy meeting today, and delivers its decision tomorrow.

Markets are pricing in a 93% chance of a hike tomorrow.

Let’s see how the markets have been moving.

The Daily Direction

Note: All indexes closed lower yesterday and opened lower this morning as well – keeping all short and medium-term directions in the red.

The Daily Nugget

Movement is not the same thing as opportunity.

The Fed can make stocks jump around fast.

That doesn’t mean every move gives you a good trade.

A stock pops 6% after the announcement and suddenly everyone wants in.

But what are you actually buying?

Maybe the clean entry was two dollars ago.

Maybe support is way below.

Maybe you’d have to risk $4 just to make another $2.

That’s not a setup.

That’s chasing.

A good trade should still give you a clear entry, a clear point where you’re wrong, and enough upside to make the risk make sense.

None of that changes because Powell is talking and the candles get bigger.

So if tomorrow gets wild, don’t feel like you have to react to the first thing that moves.

Let the market move.

Then look for the trade that still gives you a clean setup.

The Traders Agency Team

P.S. Speaking of setups – here is how Ross can make ANYONE a profitable stock trader.

Skyworks and Qorvo Shares Jump as Outlets Offer Competing Explanations for the Move

Traders Agency Team — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 19:43:30 GMT

Skyworks Solutions and Qorvo shares surged in Tuesday midday trading, but the financial press was not unified on why. Seeking Alpha framed the move around the companies' already-pending merger reaching what it called its final stages, while CNBC attributed the pop to a rebound from the prior session's artificial-intelligence-linked sell-off. Yahoo Finance went further, stating outright that no company announcement from either firm accounted for a move of this size.

The Numbers Behind the Move

According to Yahoo Finance, Skyworks stock rose 11% to $87.68, the sharpest jump among handset chip names, while Qorvo advanced alongside it. CNBC put the same session's gains at 10% for Skyworks and 7% for Qorvo. In our reading, the modest gap between the two outlets' percentage figures most likely reflects different snapshot points during a fast-moving midday session rather than a disagreement about direction.

Two Different Stories for One Rally

Seeking Alpha's market-news item, headlined around the merger entering its final stages, framed the deal as delivering scale, revenue growth, diversification, meaningful synergies, and an entry point into new markets such as defense, according to Seeking Alpha. CNBC offered a different read, describing the pop as the chipmakers recovering from a sell-off in the previous session that had been driven by safety concerns around the AI trade, rather than any merger-specific catalyst.

Yahoo Finance's reporting is the most explicit on the absence of fresh news, stating that no company announcement from Skyworks, Qorvo or Qualcomm accounts for moves of this size in a single session, and noting that the day's rotation into RF chip names arrived without a fresh earnings release, filing or analyst note in the day's flow. In our view, taken together the coverage points to a rally driven more by narrative and sector rotation than by any new disclosure from either company on Tuesday.

What Is Actually Known About the Pending Deal

It is worth separating Tuesday's price action from the underlying transaction itself. The Skyworks-Qorvo combination is not a fresh talks situation; it is a previously disclosed, pending deal that Skyworks management now expects to close within calendar 2026, per Yahoo Finance's reporting. Yahoo Finance also reported that Skyworks expects synergies of $500 million or more from the combination, with management describing it as immediately and meaningfully accretive to non-GAAP EPS after close, and that the pending merger plus a $2 billion buyback authorization gives the combined company optionality once the deal closes. None of the three reports reviewed here added new detail on deal structure, exchange terms or a firmer closing date beyond that calendar-2026 expectation, and Yahoo Finance stated that no company announcement from Skyworks, Qorvo or Qualcomm accounts for moves of this size in a single session.

Underlying Business Trends

Apart from the merger, both companies have recent operating results in the public record. Skyworks has guided to fourth-quarter revenue of $1.01 billion to $1.06 billion, supported by a high-teens sequential mobile ramp tied to seasonal product launches at its largest customer, according to Yahoo Finance. CEO Phil Brace said on the company's July earnings call that "demand is healthy, and channel inventories are lean, and the long-term setup is compelling," per the same report. Qorvo, for its part, reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $784.8 million and non-GAAP EPS of $1.64, both ahead of consensus, with its High Performance Analog segment up 50.1% year over year to $206.3 million, also according to Yahoo Finance.

Reading the Move

In our view, the divergence in explanations across outlets matters more than the size of the move itself. Skyworks and Qorvo are radio-frequency front-end and analog names that trade primarily on smartphone unit volumes, dollar content per handset, and industrial and automotive demand rather than on AI data-center capital spending, which is consistent with why CNBC linked their move to a rebound from an AI-driven sell-off rather than to any semiconductor-specific news. That framing sits uneasily next to Seeking Alpha's merger-progress narrative, and Yahoo Finance's flat statement that no announcement justified the scale of the move suggests caution is warranted before reading Tuesday's gain as fresh confirmation of anything new on the deal front.

Context also matters here. Yahoo Finance noted that Skyworks stock was already up 41% year to date heading into Tuesday's session, before that day's 11% gain. Using those two figures in combination, 1.41 multiplied by 1.11, our calculation puts the stock's cumulative year-to-date gain at roughly 56.5% once Tuesday's move is layered on. Yahoo Finance flagged that a double-digit move on no company news, arriving on top of an already large year-to-date advance, raises the risk that gains could reverse just as quickly if AI-linked technology names find renewed favor.

Bottom Line

Skyworks and Qorvo shares moved sharply higher Tuesday, but the reporting on why is split between a merger-progress narrative from Seeking Alpha, an AI-sell-off-rebound explanation from CNBC, and an explicit no-fresh-news read from Yahoo Finance. The underlying merger remains a previously disclosed, pending transaction expected to close within calendar 2026, with no new structural detail added by Tuesday's coverage. Investors weighing the move should distinguish between the companies' known operating results and guidance, which are unchanged, and a single session's price action that, by Yahoo Finance's own account, was not tied to any new company disclosure.

The Market Is Getting CRUSHED… These 3 Stocks Keep SOARING

Ross Givens — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 19:34:23 GMT

Shipping stocks are the single strongest corner of the market right now, even as the major indexes soften. The S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow have all been pulling back over the last couple of weeks. Shipping has kept ripping higher.

Three names are leading that charge: DHT Holdings, Frontline, and TK Tankers.

Most traders are watching the wrong thing. They're fixated on general market weakness and missing the fact that one sector has quietly dominated nearly every performance timeframe. That's not noise. That's where the money is flowing.

Why Are Shipping Stocks Soaring?

Bottom Line: Shipping stocks, led by DHT Holdings, Frontline, and TK Tankers, are outperforming the broader market because disrupted trade routes near Iran and the Strait of Hormuz push shipping companies to travel longer routes and charge higher rates. This strength shows up across nearly every timeframe in the Industry Strength Indicator, making shipping stocks the clearest area of leadership even as the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow pull back.

Longer routes mean higher rates per carrier

The turmoil in Iran and the closure of the strait have disrupted global trade routes. That disruption forces longer shipping routes, and longer routes mean shipping companies can charge more per carrier, which is a big win for them.

I track sector leadership with an industry strength indicator. It's a simple graph showing which areas of the market, measured by ETFs, are rising the most across various time periods. If an area keeps outperforming over one, two, three, and six month windows, that's leading. That's where the dollars are going. That's where the stocked pond is.

Shipping shows top-tier strength across multiple time periods in the Industry Strength Indicator

Shipping is leading in performance over the one-month period. Number two over two months. Number two over three months. On the list for six months. Number two over nine months, and still on the twelve-month list.

That kind of consistency across nearly every timeframe is not a one-week pop. It's a sustained trend.

The BOAT Breakout Started in August

I've been talking about this sector for months. Back in August I pointed out BOAT, the shipping ETF, as it was breaking out. The thinking was simple: the strait closure was causing too much disruption.

All the energy that normally moves through that strait to Europe and Asia is getting rerouted. The eastern half of the world is essentially saying forget about it. It's not worth sending shipping captains through narrow channels to get RPGs fired at them. So they order from Canada, the US, or South America instead. It takes longer to arrive, but at least it arrives.

BOAT, the shipping ETF, breaking out above resistance

The chart tells the whole story. A big run-up heading into this year before the strait situation even kicked off. Then compression. A little dip over the summer. Then it came ripping back, broke through resistance, and has continued to surge higher.

What Number Matters Most for Shipping Stocks?

Relative strength. Frontline (FRO) currently carries a relative strength rating of 98 out of 100. It's outperforming 98% of the entire market.

When a single stock posts that kind of number while the major indexes pull back, it tells you money is rotating into a specific area rather than leaving the market entirely.

The Three Leaders I'm Targeting

I focus on leaders, and three stocks are leading this group right now.

DHT Holdings (DHT) – trading at its highs with strong upward momentum
Frontline (FRO) – absolutely surging, with that 98 relative strength rating
TK Tankers (TNK) – same breakout characteristics as the other two

All three are at their highs, ripping up the right side of the chart. Leaders inside a leading sector. That's exactly where attention belongs when the broader market gets choppy.

Company filings for these names are available through SEC EDGAR.

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Where Should You Buy Shipping Stocks?

The pullback zone between the 10-day and 20-day

I keep four moving averages on every chart: the 10-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day. There's no magic in them. They're guard rails. Some people want to argue about the 17-day exponential average instead. Whatever.

Each one does a different job.

The 200-day is your long-term trend line. Stocks, commodities, anything trading above it is in a long-term uptrend.
The 50-day holds up medium-term uptrends, the kind of stock running 20, 30, 40% a year.
The 20-day is the faster line. A stock in a good run should hold above it.
The 10-day is for names really taking off, up 10, 20, 30% in a week or two. That's the soonest I'd buy something back.

Frontline shows the 50-day at work. Big strong run, then a pullback right to the 50-day, and that level typically supported the move. After a big run, a decent 20 to 30% pullback into the 50 is where you're looking to buy.

On breakout names like Frontline and TNK, the spot I like is the shaded zone between the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, on the way up, when the 10 is above the 20. That would have gotten you in more than once.

Set the Alert on the Indicator, Not the Price

Moving averages are dynamic. They move every single day. The 10-day MA will sit at a completely different price ten days from now.

So I don't set a price alert. In TradingView, you can right-click the moving average and add an alert on the indicator itself. I use a four-line MA ribbon with the 10, 20, 50, and 200 in it, then set the alert on the 10-day for a cross down below it. If you leave it as plain "crossing," it'll fire constantly.

Then I change the message to something useful: "Pullback on TNK, consider buying between 10 and 20 day." That reminds me what I was thinking when the alert hits. Notifications can come through the app, a popup on your page, an email, or a sound.

When TNK drops under the 10-day, I get pinged, pull up the chart, and decide in real time whether that's the entry I wanted.

ETF or Individual Shipping Stocks?

If you want broad exposure without picking stocks, BOAT gives you the sector in one ticker. Its breakout was visible back in August, and it's continued to surge since.

I prefer to focus on the leaders inside the group, which is why I'm targeting DHT, FRO, and TNK specifically. Frontline's 98 relative strength rating is the clearest read on how strong that leadership is right now.

Why Not Just Trade Oil?

Energy is arguably the second leading area of the market. It's also finicky.

The price of oil is already very high, and all it takes is a single tweet from Trump for it to surge or collapse overnight. Very volatile. Very difficult to trade with any consistency.

Shipping doesn't behave that way. The disruption at the strait changed how goods physically move around the world. That's why I'd rather look at the shippers than try to trade crude.

What About Dividends?

This setup is about momentum and technical entries in DHT, FRO, and TNK, not yield. All three are trading at their highs, and that price action is what's driving the trade.

If you're screening shipping stocks for dividends, treat that as a separate research track. Payout data and breakout charts answer two different questions.

Be Selective, Not Aggressive

To be clear, this is not a surging all-hands-on-deck market. We're going through some short-term weakness.

That doesn't mean I'm bearish. It doesn't mean I'm shorting or dumping every position. It means I'm being less aggressive.

The S&P is trending lower. The Nasdaq is pulling back. The Dow is pulling back. So I'm focusing only on the really strong areas, waiting for pullbacks instead of chasing extended stocks, and trading slightly smaller size than usual.

That's exactly why shipping stands out. When almost everything else is soft, a sector leading across one, two, three, six, nine, and twelve month timeframes is not something to ignore.

One Non-Shipping Position: Hinge

I entered Hinge (HNG) a couple of days ago and I'm still holding it. It's working. Not up a ton, a few percent, but it's advancing in a market that isn't.

Midterm election year seasonality: the fourth quarter is typically the strongest stretch of the cycle

The fourth quarter of a midterm election year is typically the strongest stretch of the entire cycle. That's October, November, and December of this year.

Health care has been up 100% of the time in the last six months of a midterm year

On top of the seasonality, health care has historically been the leading area in that fourth quarter, up 100% of the time in the last six months of a midterm year. Which is where we are now.

So Hinge is, shocker, a health care stock setting up in a very clean breakout pattern. Massive run in the second quarter, several months of consolidation, and now it's trying to break out and push higher. It's also a recent IPO, and all things being equal, younger stocks tend to produce bigger moves than older ones.

Stay With the Leaders

Shipping stocks are leading this market, and the data across nearly every timeframe backs it up. DHT, Frontline, and TNK are the three names showing the clearest strength, and Frontline's 98 relative strength rating is the most direct evidence of where momentum sits.

This is not a market for taking 50 trades a day. Wait for pullbacks into the 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day on the strongest names. Stay disciplined on size while the indexes work through this soft patch.

Shipping is without question the area leading the market today. Whether you play it through BOAT or through individual names like DHT, FRO, and TNK, the trend has held for months and hasn't shown a crack yet.

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Meta Launches Meta One Subscription Tiers Starting at $2.99 a Month Across Instagram, Facebook and WhatsApp

Traders Agency Team — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 18:15:27 GMT

Meta Platforms on Tuesday began rolling out Meta One, a new subscription service that gives users expanded artificial intelligence tools and additional features across Instagram, Facebook, WhatsApp and Meta AI, according to Seeking Alpha and WTAQ. The move gives Meta a new, non-advertising revenue line built on top of a user base that WTAQ reported averaged 3.60 billion daily active people across its family of apps earlier this year.

Pricing and Tiers

Meta reported 15 million subscriptions and trials during Meta One's phased introduction, according to WTAQ.

Meta One monthly starting prices by plan tier, per Yahoo Finance.

Meta One monthly plans start at $2.99 for single-product plans, $7.99 for individual bundles, and $14.99 for creator and business bundles, WTAQ and Yahoo Finance reported. Meta said the service has already reached 15 million subscriptions and trials during its phased introduction and aims to offer more than 50 features across its platforms spanning content creation, audience engagement and business management, according to WTAQ.

The company also said Meta One will expand to its Edits app and its AI glasses soon, per WTAQ. Read as interpretation of that disclosure, the planned expansion suggests the subscription structure is intended to grow beyond the initial set of apps rather than remain fixed to Instagram, Facebook and WhatsApp.

What Stays Free vs. What's Gated

Meta said core app functions and basic Meta AI usage will remain free, with paid tiers adding higher AI usage limits, according to WTAQ. Yahoo Finance reported that Meta One also includes Core and Premium user plans that carry the same features found in the single-product plans, along with increased AI usage limits for images and videos.

At the entry level, single products such as WhatsApp Plus and Instagram Plus offer app-specific enhancements, while individual bundles combine those features with more advanced AI capabilities, WTAQ reported. On the feature side, Yahoo Finance detailed that Instagram Plus and Facebook Plus let users keep stories up for 48 hours instead of 24, send animated super reactions and super hearts to stories, and preview stories without appearing in other users' viewer lists. WhatsApp Plus, meanwhile, adds exclusive stickers, custom ringtones for contacts, and the ability to pin up to 20 chats.

Creator and Business Tools

For professional users, Meta is offering creator and business bundles across four tiers — Essential, Advanced, Expert and Max, according to Yahoo Finance — that WTAQ said include verification, advanced analytics and enhanced support across Meta's platforms. Yahoo Finance added that these plans come with enhanced profiles, automatic follow invitations for users who interact with a creator's content, and increased access to the Meta Business Agent, which can respond to customers on a user's behalf.

In a blog post cited by WTAQ, Meta said: "We'll continue to add features and agent skills built to help small businesses and creators with end-to-end marketing, business operations, content creation, and optimization."

Why Meta Is Pushing Subscriptions Now

Yahoo Finance framed the launch as part of Meta's effort to better monetize its enormous AI spending and diversify its revenue stream beyond digital advertising. That framing follows a bumpy few months for the company financially: Meta reported second-quarter earnings below expectations in July, which it attributed to $2.4 billion in legal contingencies and $1.2 billion in severance expenses, according to Yahoo Finance. The company also guided third-quarter revenue to a range of $61 billion to $64 billion, below the $63.1 billion midpoint Wall Street had been expecting, Yahoo Finance reported.

At the same time, Meta raised the low end of its capital expenditure guidance to $135 billion-$145 billion from $125 billion-$145 billion, per Yahoo Finance, underscoring that AI infrastructure spending is continuing to climb even as the company looks for new ways to generate revenue from that investment.

The subscription launch also arrives amid a string of AI model releases. Yahoo Finance reported that after falling behind rivals such as Google and OpenAI, Meta debuted its Muse Spark model in April and has since released Muse Spark 1.2 and Muse 1.3, followed by the unveiling of its Muse personal AI agent last week. Taken together, the model releases and the Meta One rollout point to a company trying to translate a heavy AI buildout into products it can charge for directly, though the evidence available does not quantify what portion of revenue Meta expects the new subscriptions to contribute relative to its capex plans.

Bottom Line

Meta One gives the company a tiered, low-cost entry point, from $2.99 single-app plans up to $14.99 creator and business bundles, aimed at monetizing its AI features without disturbing the free core experience across Instagram, Facebook and WhatsApp. With 15 million subscriptions and trials already logged during the phased rollout, per WTAQ, the initial uptake numbers offer an early signal of demand, but whether the tiers meaningfully offset Meta's rising AI capital spending will depend on how subscription revenue scales from here, a question the current reporting does not yet answer.

Forgent Power Solutions Reports 94% Fourth-Quarter Revenue Growth, Record $3.0 Billion Backlog, Guides Fiscal 2027 Revenue to $2.4–$2.6 Billion

Traders Agency Team — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 18:14:11 GMT

Forgent Power Solutions reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $461.7 million, up 94% from $237.6 million a year earlier, and closed fiscal 2026 with a backlog described as an all-time high of $3.0 billion. The company, whose results were distributed before the market opened on September 15, 2026 with a management call scheduled for 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time, also introduced fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion, which it said is significantly higher than the forecast it gave at the time of its IPO.

Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Results

Fiscal Q4 2026 profitability margins as reported by Forgent Power Solutions via SEC filing distributed through StockTitan, quarter ended June 30, 2026.

For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, Forgent posted net income of $66.1 million, reversing a net loss of $4.8 million in the prior-year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA rose 163% year over year to $112.7 million from $42.8 million, and Adjusted Net Income climbed 275% to $77.3 million from $20.6 million, according to figures reported via Forgent's SEC filing distributed through StockTitan.

Full fiscal 2026 revenue reached $1.42 billion, up 89% from $753.2 million in fiscal 2025. Full-year net income was $106.0 million versus $17.4 million a year earlier, Adjusted EBITDA was $322.9 million versus $169.2 million, and Adjusted Net Income was $207.6 million versus $88.1 million. Gross profit for the year was $497.6 million, up from $278.1 million.

Fourth-quarter net income margin was 14.3%, roughly 800 basis points higher than the prior quarter, and Adjusted EBITDA margin was 24.4%, roughly 200 basis points higher quarter over quarter, the company said. Forgent attributed both improvements to revenue growth outpacing operating cost growth as new manufacturing campuses moved closer to target production rates. The 10.1-percentage-point spread between the two figures (14.3 minus 24.4) reflects the difference between GAAP net income and the company's non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA measure rather than any separate disclosure.

Fourth-quarter cash flow from operations was $74 million, $81 million higher than the prior-year quarter, as higher earnings more than offset continued working-capital investment tied to the production ramp. Quarterly capital expenditures were $31 million, substantially all related to the company's 2025-2026 capacity expansion.

Chief Executive Officer Gary Niederpruem said the company booked more than $1.5 billion of orders in the fourth quarter alone, an amount he said exceeded Forgent's total revenue for the full fiscal year, and said the company's revenue, Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Net Income in the quarter all exceeded the high end of the guidance it had issued in May, per the Business Wire release distributed via StockTitan.

Record $3.0 Billion Backlog

Forgent said its backlog stood at $3.0 billion as of June 30, 2026, an all-time high that rose 256% from June 30, 2025 and 53% from March 31, 2026, according to the company's filing. The pace of sequential growth in a single quarter is notable, though the release does not break down how much of the current backlog is attributable to data-center or hyperscaler customers specifically.

Earlier company disclosures ahead of its IPO, reported by greenstocksresearch.com, showed data centers representing 47% of backlog as of September 30, 2025, versus 30% for grid customers, 13% for industrial and 10% for other markets; data centers also made up 42% of fiscal 2025 revenue. That mix is a September 30, 2025 snapshot and predates the 256% year-over-year backlog increase reported for June 30, 2026, so it should not be read as a current breakdown of the $3.0 billion figure. The same pre-IPO commentary flagged that any pullback in hyperscaler capital expenditure, whether from an economic downturn, a shift in artificial intelligence investment sentiment, or supply-chain disruption, could materially affect demand.

Forgent's own risk disclosure, cited in the fourth-quarter filing, cautions that amounts included in backlog may not result in the revenue or profits the company expects, or on the timeframe it anticipates, and that its growth depends in part on continued investment in new data centers, which in turn depends on continued interest in developing artificial intelligence.

Fiscal 2027 Guidance and Capacity Expansion

Forgent's initial fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion implies growth of roughly 69% to 83% from the $1.42 billion reported in fiscal 2026 ($2.4 billion and $2.6 billion each divided by $1.420 billion). The company's release did not provide fiscal 2027 Adjusted EBITDA margin or Adjusted EBITDA dollar guidance.

To support the guided growth, Forgent announced a $35 million investment to expand Powertrain Solutions manufacturing capacity at its Tijuana, Mexico campus. The expansion, known internally as the 2027 PTS Capacity Expansion, is expected to come online in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2027 and to lift the company's total revenue capacity to approximately $5.8 billion, an increase of roughly $800 million. Forgent said it expects the investment to increase Powertrain Solutions capacity by more than 50%.

The company said Powertrain Solutions revenue grew 259% in fiscal 2026 and accounted for nearly one-third of fourth-quarter revenue, exceeding the demand assumptions underlying its initial capacity build-out and prompting the additional investment.

Fiscal 2027 capital expenditures are expected to total approximately $87 million, covering remaining spend on the 2025-2026 capacity expansion, the new PTS expansion, and maintenance capital expenditures of roughly 1% of revenues. The company said it expects operating cash flow to increase in fiscal 2027 compared with fiscal 2026, primarily driven by higher earnings.

Market Context

The fourth-quarter print follows a pattern of outsized growth reported earlier in fiscal 2026. Investor's Business Daily reported that Forgent shares gapped up to an all-time high on May 14, 2026 after the company posted March-quarter revenue of $379 million, up 103% year over year and above analysts' estimates, alongside raised guidance at the time.

Bottom Line

Forgent closed fiscal 2026 with sharply higher revenue, profitability and a record backlog, and the company said its initial fiscal 2027 revenue guidance is significantly higher than the forecast it issued at the time of its IPO, while it commits further capital to expand Powertrain Solutions capacity. Forgent's own disclosures, however, underscore that backlog conversion is not guaranteed and that its growth remains tied to continued data-center investment linked to artificial intelligence demand, a dependency that pre-IPO commentary on hyperscaler concentration had already flagged as a risk.

Dave & Buster's Swings to $12.5 Million Second-Quarter Loss as Comparable Sales Fall 2.9%

Traders Agency Team — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 18:14:08 GMT

Dave & Buster's reported a net loss of $12.5 million for its fiscal second quarter, reversing a year-earlier profit of $11.4 million, as comparable store sales fell 2.9% and total revenue slipped to $544.1 million, according to the company's second quarter fiscal 2026 results released via GlobeNewswire after the market close on Monday, September 14, 2026. The stock was among names CNBC flagged as making the biggest premarket moves the following morning, though the size of that move was not specified in the network's report.

Revenue Mix Shifted Away From Entertainment

Second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue by segment, reported by Dave & Buster's via GlobeNewswire (Finviz).

Total revenue declined 2.4% from $557.4 million a year earlier, according to the earnings release. The drop was concentrated in entertainment revenue, which fell to $332.6 million from $364.5 million and shrank to 61.1% of total revenue from 65.4%. Food and beverage revenue moved the other direction, rising to $211.5 million from $192.9 million and climbing to 38.9% of the total from 34.6%, the company reported. The release did not break out how much of the 2.9% comparable-sales decline came from entertainment versus food and beverage.

Margins Compressed Across the Business

Adjusted EBITDA fell to $98.9 million, or 18.2% of revenue, from $129.8 million, or 23.3% of revenue, in the second quarter of fiscal 2025, the company said. That represents a decline of 5.1 percentage points in adjusted EBITDA margin (our calculation: 23.3% minus 18.2%).

Operating income dropped even more sharply, to $19.4 million, or 3.6% of revenue, from $53.0 million, or 9.5% of revenue, a margin decline of 5.9 percentage points (our calculation: 9.5% minus 3.6%). Store operating income before depreciation and amortization, a non-GAAP measure, fell to $127.8 million, or 23.5% of revenue, from $155.4 million, or 27.9%, according to the release.

Fixed costs tied to the company's buildout added pressure. Depreciation and amortization rose to $73.7 million from $65.2 million, and pre-opening costs increased to $6.7 million from $4.1 million, the release showed. Net interest expense of $38.0 million exceeded operating income for the quarter, producing a pretax loss of $18.6 million that was partly offset by a $6.1 million income tax benefit, compared with pretax income of $14.3 million and a $2.9 million tax provision a year earlier.

The swing from net income to net loss totaled $23.9 million (our calculation: $12.5 million loss plus $11.4 million prior-year income). On an adjusted basis, the company reported an adjusted net loss of $9.5 million, or $0.27 per diluted share, versus adjusted net income of $14.2 million, or $0.40 per diluted share, a year earlier, a swing of $23.7 million (our calculation: $9.5 million plus $14.2 million).

Free Cash Flow Improved as Capital Spending Pulled Back

Away from the quarterly loss, the company pointed to improved cash generation over the first half of fiscal 2026. Adjusted free cash flow was positive $19.5 million for the six months ended August 4, 2026, compared with negative $36.5 million in the same period a year earlier, an improvement of $56.0 million (our calculation: $19.5 million minus negative $36.5 million). The company attributed the shift to lower capital expenditures of $190.0 million, down $53.8 million from $243.8 million a year earlier (our calculation), along with $48.9 million of sale-leaseback proceeds versus $73.0 million previously, according to the release.

Leverage Ratio at 3.5x, Debt Load Near $1.5 Billion

The company's credit-agreement metrics showed a Net Total Leverage Ratio of 3.5x, based on net debt of $1,543.3 million against trailing four-quarter Credit Adjusted EBITDA of $435.8 million, the release said. Net debt reflected total debt of $1,540.4 million, less $16.0 million of cash and cash equivalents and plus $18.9 million of outstanding letters of credit. Trailing four-quarter GAAP net loss was $88.7 million. The release did not disclose revolver availability or address any share-repurchase activity.

New Stores Continued to Open

Even as comparable sales declined, the store base kept expanding. Dave & Buster's operated 250 company-owned stores at quarter-end, up from 237 a year earlier, after opening six new domestic locations in the quarter, according to the release. Store operating weeks rose to 3,204 from 3,066. Looking ahead, the company said it expects to complete two additional Dave & Buster's remodels during the remainder of fiscal 2026, bringing the year's total to eight, and to open at least one more international franchise store beyond the six currently operating. No other forward guidance on capital expenditure levels or broader unit-growth targets was included in the release.

Management Points to a Turnaround Effort

New Chief Executive Officer Darin Harper framed the results around what the release called the company's "Back-to-Basics strategy," saying it is "gaining momentum with enhanced executional urgency." Harper said the company is "laser focused on returning to same-store sales and EBITDA growth, sharpening our margin management with cost saving initiatives, generating significant free cash flow, and delivering meaningful shareholder value," according to the release.

Harper also said comparable sales trends had begun to turn, noting "we improved overall same store sales in July, and saw continued improvement in overall same store sales during the third quarter to date." He pointed to "ongoing growth in food and beverage sales as well as in special events sales," and said remodeled stores "continue to outperform the system" on a same-store-sales basis, per the release. The release did not provide specific percentage figures for the July or third-quarter-to-date trends, nor did it quantify how much of the improvement came from food and beverage versus entertainment spending.

Market Reaction

CNBC listed Dave & Buster's among the stocks making the biggest premarket moves on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, in a roundup that also included Enova and Etsy. CNBC's report did not specify the magnitude of the premarket move or cite any sell-side analyst rating or estimate changes tied to the earnings release.

Bottom Line

Dave & Buster's second-quarter results show a company whose entertainment-driven revenue base is shrinking even as food and beverage sales grow, producing a GAAP net loss, a wider adjusted loss, and compressed margins across operating income and EBITDA. At the same time, lower capital expenditures and sale-leaseback proceeds pushed adjusted free cash flow positive for the first half of the fiscal year, and the Net Total Leverage Ratio stood at 3.5 times credit-adjusted EBITDA as defined in the company's credit agreement. Management's own commentary points to sequential improvement in same-store sales entering the third quarter, but the company has not yet quantified that recovery or laid out capital-spending or unit-growth targets beyond a handful of planned remodels and one additional international franchise store.

Analog Devices to Acquire Alif Semiconductor in Deal Worth Up to $1.55 Billion

Traders Agency Team — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 13:57:13 GMT

Analog Devices (NASDAQ: ADI) and privately held Alif Semiconductor have signed a definitive agreement under which ADI will acquire the Pleasanton, California-based chipmaker in an all-cash transaction, according to a joint announcement carried by PR Newswire APAC. The deal comprises $1.35 billion of upfront consideration plus up to $200 million in additional contingent payments, for a potential total transaction value of $1.55 billion, as reported by Pulse2 and corroborated by ETManufacturing.

Deal Structure

Source: Pulse2 (Sept. 10, 2026) — ADI's acquisition of Alif Semiconductor comprises $1.35B upfront cash plus up to $200M in contingent payments, for a potential total of $1.55B.

The contingent piece is meaningful but not transformative to the deal's headline size: the $200 million maximum earn-out equals about 12.9% of the $1.55 billion potential total, by our calculation, with the $1.35 billion upfront figure sitting $0.20 billion — roughly 12.9% — below that ceiling (formula: (1.35 - 1.55) / 1.55 × 100). That framing is interpretation of the disclosed consideration, not guidance from either company. Neither ADI's announcement nor the secondary coverage specifies the milestones or conditions attached to the contingent payments.

Both companies' boards have approved the transaction, which is expected to close before the end of calendar year 2026, subject to customary closing conditions and the expiration of the waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act, according to PR Newswire APAC and Pulse2.

What Alif Brings: AI-Native Microcontrollers

Alif makes what ADI's release describes as secure, connected, highly power-efficient EdgeAI microcontrollers and fusion processors. The company's architectures scale from single-core to multi-core systems with integrated neural processing units (NPUs) and advanced graphics acceleration, per the same release. ADI also states that Alif's silicon is already shipping in production, with design wins across consumer and industrial customers, a point echoed by Evertiq.

Alif co-founder and President Reza Kazerounian framed the company's origin story around that architecture choice: "Alif was founded to reimagine what a microcontroller can be in the AI era. We engineered a heterogeneous architecture from the start, integrating dedicated low-power neural processing with connectivity, security, and intelligent power management that delivers compute resources precisely where they're needed," he said, according to PR Newswire APAC.

ADI's "Physical Intelligence" Framing

ADI positions the acquisition within what it calls Physical Intelligence, described by Evertiq as "the ability for systems to sense, reason and act locally in real time within the power, latency and reliability constraints of the physical world." Pulse2 characterizes the broader push as one where "AI systems interpret signals from the physical world and make decisions locally rather than relying entirely on cloud data centers."

ADI Chair and CEO Vincent Roche tied the deal to that thesis: "AI is moving out of the data center and into the physical world, where latency, power, and trust cannot be compromised," he said, adding that pairing Alif's digital processing with ADI's sensing, signal processing, power, connectivity and software would let customers "create entirely new classes of secure, intelligent systems that sense, reason, and act locally in real time," per PR Newswire APAC.

ADI says the combination expands its total addressable market across industrial systems, data center infrastructure, defense, energy, robotics, digital health and wearable applications, a scope confirmed by both PR Newswire APAC and Pulse2.

Advisors and Deal Risks

PJT Partners is serving as financial advisor to ADI, with Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz as legal counsel. Qatalyst Partners is advising Alif, with DLA Piper serving as its legal counsel, according to PR Newswire APAC.

ADI's release itself flags standard deal risk factors: the possibility that regulatory approvals may not be obtained or other closing conditions may not be satisfied in a timely manner or at all, that the transaction could be delayed or fail to close, that unforeseen liabilities or transaction costs could arise, and that ADI could face difficulty retaining key personnel or integrating the acquired business. No further management commentary on antitrust posture or integration timeline appears in the available announcement.

Financial Backdrop

The acquisition comes after a period of stronger reported results at ADI. A month before the announcement, the Wilmington, Massachusetts-based company forecast fourth-quarter revenue and profit above Wall Street estimates after reporting a 40% rise in third-quarter revenue, according to ETManufacturing. Alif's own revenue figures, funding history and prior private valuation were not disclosed, and neither company detailed expected EPS or margin impact from the transaction.

Bottom Line

ADI's agreement to acquire Alif Semiconductor for up to $1.55 billion adds an AI-native microcontroller and fusion-processor platform, which ADI says is already shipping in production with design wins at consumer and industrial customers, to ADI's existing sensing and signal-processing portfolio. The deal is subject to antitrust clearance and customary closing conditions, with both companies targeting a close before the end of calendar 2026. Alif's financial history and the precise terms of the contingent payments were not disclosed.

Is the “Big Money” Cutting Risk?

Ross Givens — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 12:15:00 GMT

Hey, Ross here:

Hedge funds have spent the past few months taking a LOT of risk off the table.

But when I dug into where they’re actually moving the money…

One part of the market stuck out immediately.

Take a look:

Chart of the Day

This chart shows the three-month change in hedge fund gross leverage.

In plain English, it measures how aggressively funds are cutting the total amount of market exposure they’re carrying.

And this quarter, the drop has been huge.

Gross leverage is down roughly 7–8 percentage points from its recent peak.

That puts this de-leveraging episode in the same neighborhood as some of the biggest risk reductions we’ve seen since 2018.

So hedge funds have clearly gotten more defensive.

But here’s where it gets unusual:

This chart comes from Goldman’s prime brokerage data and tracks hedge fund buying in Technology and Communication Services.

Over the past two weeks, long buying in those sectors has surged to a little over 3% of gross market value.

That’s one of the strongest bursts of buying on this chart going back to 2022.

So at the same time hedge funds are cutting exposure across their books…

They’re aggressively adding money in one specific area.

That tells me something – which I explain in the insight below.

Insight of the Day

The “big money” is telling us what they still want badly enough to keep buying.

When funds are buying everything, it’s hard to tell how much conviction sits behind any one position.

Everybody’s taking risks.

Money is flowing everywhere.

But when those same funds start slashing exposure?

Now their choices get more revealing.

They’re actively deciding what they can live without…

And what they still want badly enough to keep buying.

That’s why the Tech and Communication Services flow above jumped out at me.

If hedge funds are cutting risk across the board but still piling into that part of the market…

I want to know which individual stocks are absorbing that money.

Because a giant fund can’t build a serious position in one shot.

They have to work the order.

And when enough money starts flowing into the same stock over days or weeks…

It leaves tracks.

Tracks we can follow – so we can use their money for our gain.

And in just a few hours later today at 11 a.m. Eastern…

I’m going LIVE to show you exactly how I do it.

I’ll break down the strategy I use to spot institutional footprints…

How I identify stocks where big money appears to be building a position…

And how smaller traders can potentially ride alongside that buying before the move is finished.

It’s the same approach that helped us identify opportunities like NuScale Power before a 146% move in 53 days… Alpine Immune Sciences before 206% in 77 days… and Nikola before 87% in just 24 hours.

Click here to lock in your free seat for today’s LIVE strategy session if you haven’t yet…

And I’ll see you in just a bit at 11 a.m. ET.

P.S. If you’re planning to attend on a mobile device, make sure you download the presentation app now so you don’t miss anything when it starts. See you there.

iOS: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/goto/id1465614785
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Customer Story of the Day

“Fantastic! Doing well investing with Traders Agency and Ross Givens.

Best decision I have made on this investing journey. Thanks.”

Ross Givens
Editor, Stock Surge Daily

Kimberly-Clark Readies EU Concessions to Clear Path for $40 Billion Kenvue Deal, Sources Say

Traders Agency Team — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 12:10:29 GMT

Kimberly-Clark is preparing to offer concessions, including possible asset sales, to address European antitrust concerns over its $40 billion acquisition of Tylenol maker Kenvue, according to people familiar with the matter. The move comes as the European Commission is expected to formally notify Kimberly-Clark of its concerns this week, the sources said, setting up a critical stretch in the deal's path toward closing.

Concessions Take Shape Ahead of Formal EU Notice

According to reporting by kwsn.com and wmbdradio.com, both citing people familiar with the matter, Kimberly-Clark is readying concessions that could help it win approval for the deal after a preliminary review. The European Commission, which acts as the EU's competition enforcer, is set to formally inform Kimberly-Clark of its concerns this week, the same sources said.

The Commission declined to comment when approached, and Kimberly-Clark and Kenvue did not respond to emailed requests for comment, according to the same reporting. That leaves the specifics of the proposed remedies, including which assets might be sold and in which markets, unconfirmed by the companies themselves.

Feminine Care Emerges as a Flashpoint

While the exact scope of the EU concessions has not been detailed publicly, a recent precedent in another jurisdiction offers a clue to where regulators' attention has focused. Australian authorities cleared the deal last week on condition that Kimberly-Clark divest Kenvue's Carefree and Stayfree period care brands in that country, per the kwsn.com and wmbdradio.com reporting. The same reporting states that the transaction secured conditional approval in South Africa last month, without detailing the conditions attached there.

Interpretation: the Australian remedy points to overlap in feminine care products between the two portfolios as a category that has drawn regulatory scrutiny in at least one jurisdiction. It does not establish what the European Commission's concerns are — the available reporting does not say whether Brussels is focused on the same category or on other parts of the combined portfolio.

The Deal's Scope and Filing Timeline

Kimberly-Clark, the maker of Kleenex tissues and Huggies diapers, announced the acquisition in November of last year. The deal would fold Kenvue's brand portfolio, spanning Tylenol, Listerine mouthwash, and skincare labels Aveeno and Neutrogena, into Kimberly-Clark's existing product range, according to the kwsn.com and wmbdradio.com accounts.

On the regulatory front, Kimberly-Clark formally asked EU regulators to clear the acquisition, a filing reported by Yahoo Finance on August 28, 2026. That filing set in motion the preliminary review process now nearing a decision point, with the Commission expected to lay out its concerns this week, according to the kwsn.com and wmbdradio.com sourcing.

Market Reaction

Early trading moves reported by kwsn.com, September 14, 2026.

Shares of both companies moved higher on the news of the prepared concessions. Kimberly-Clark shares rose more than 2.7% in early trading, while Kenvue gained 2.3%, according to kwsn.com's reporting citing market data as of September 14, 2026.

By our calculation, the gap between the two moves was 0.4 percentage points (2.7 minus 2.3), meaning Kimberly-Clark's share gain was roughly 17.4% larger in relative terms than Kenvue's (calculated as (2.7 minus 2.3) divided by 2.3, multiplied by 100). This is a simple arithmetic comparison of the two reported percentage moves on the day and should not be read as a signal of deal certainty or as any kind of forecast; it reflects only the reported reaction in early trading on the news of prepared concessions.

Broader Industry Backdrop

The transaction is unfolding against what kwsn.com and wmbdradio.com described as a challenging consumer goods environment, with shoppers looking for value and companies responding by investing in smaller pack sizes and cutting underperforming units. The reporting did not attribute commentary on that backdrop to either Kimberly-Clark or Kenvue.

What Remains Unconfirmed

Neither Kimberly-Clark nor Kenvue has publicly detailed the substance of the prepared EU concessions, and the companies did not respond to requests for comment cited in the kwsn.com and wmbdradio.com reporting. The European Commission likewise declined to comment. As a result, the precise categories under review in Brussels, the deadline for the Commission's preliminary review, and any timeline for closing the deal are not established in the available reporting.

Bottom Line

Kimberly-Clark appears to be moving proactively to head off EU objections to its Kenvue takeover, with concessions reportedly in preparation ahead of a formal notice of concerns expected this week, according to people familiar with the matter cited by kwsn.com and wmbdradio.com. The Australian divestiture of Carefree and Stayfree offers one concrete signal of where category overlap has already triggered remedies, but the specific EU asks, and how closely they mirror that precedent, remain unconfirmed. Investors reacted positively to the concessions report, though the modest share moves in both stocks reflect an early-stage development rather than a resolved outcome.

10-Year Treasury Yield Tops 5%, Highest Since 2007, as Traders Price Near-Certain Fed Rate Hike

Traders Agency Team — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 06:58:26 GMT

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield pushed above 5% early Tuesday, its highest level since 2007, as a bond sell-off deepened just hours before the Federal Reserve opens a two-day policy meeting that markets now treat as an almost certain rate-hike decision. The 10-year yield jumped more than 6 basis points to 5.025% as of 1:10 a.m. ET, according to CNBC, extending a rise that has been building since the start of September.

Yields Surge Across the Curve

Early Tuesday moves in benchmark Treasury yields, per CNBC (1:10 a.m. ET, Sept. 15, 2026).

The move was not confined to the 10-year. CNBC reported the 30-year Treasury bond yield rose more than 5 basis points to 5.384%, while the 2-year note climbed about 4 basis points to 4.68%. A same-day snapshot from Trading Economics showed the 10-year at 5.02%, the 5-year at 4.85%, the 7-year at 4.93%, the 20-year at 5.42% and the 30-year at 5.38%, with the 10-year up roughly 0.98 percentage points over the past year.

Using the CNBC-reported levels, the gap between the 2-year and 10-year yields (the 2s10s spread) works out to about 34.5 basis points (5.025% minus 4.68%), our calculation from those figures. Interpretation: a positively sloped curve of this size is consistent with a market pricing near-term policy tightening while still demanding extra compensation to hold longer-dated debt.

Tuesday's move extended a string of multiyear highs. Per CNBC, the 10-year touched 4.792% on Sept. 1 (highest since Jan. 14, 2025), 4.818% on Sept. 2 (highest since November 2023), 4.845% on Sept. 9, and 4.954% on Sept. 10 (highest since Oct. 26, 2023) before clearing 5% on Sept. 15. For context, Trading Economics notes the 10-year's all-time high was 15.82% in September 1981.

Fed Hike Odds Near Certainty

Probability based on the CME FedWatch tool, as reported by CNBC.

The sell-off comes directly ahead of the Fed's rate decision. CNBC, citing the CME FedWatch tool, reported that traders are pricing in a more than 92% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the two-day meeting that began Tuesday, after August inflation remained well above the central bank's 2% target. Trading Economics separately put the odds of a quarter-point hike at roughly 92%, following what it described as hotter-than-expected inflation data last week.

New York Fed President John Williams offered a more measured read on the yield spike earlier this month. Speaking to CNBC on Sept. 2, Williams said he believes the rise reflects a strong economy, but added he was still processing recent data: "There's no clear signs right now whether monetary policy currently is sufficient to make sure we bring inflation back to target in the next year or two, or whether you need to see further action to do that," he said, adding that "we have to wait and see" on the need for further hikes.

Oil, Inflation Expectations and the Real-Yield Split

Based on Trading Economics reporting on oil-supply disruptions.

Much of the recent pressure has been tied to oil. Brent crude futures settled up 3.36% at $101.21 a barrel on Sept. 9, while West Texas Intermediate rose 3.25% to close at $96.05, according to CNBC — the highest settlements for both benchmarks since May. Trading Economics reported that oil prices resumed their climb with Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline still shut, while Ukraine disputed President Trump's claim that it had already reached an agreement with Russia to halt attacks on energy infrastructure, keeping supply risk in the headlines.

BMO Capital Markets calculated that the one-month rolling correlation between front-month WTI and the 10-year yield has climbed to 0.96, a tie that Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick called unusually tight: "Normally, the relationship isn't as clean as it is now, but the geopolitical drivers behind the price of oil and global inflation are so prominent that the normally modest correlation has become much tighter," he told CNBC. "As long as oil prices remain firm and continue to drift higher, this will add pressure to interest rates." Standard Chartered's CIO of fixed income and FX, Jonathan Liang, made a similar point to CNBC: "U.S. 10-year treasuries are highly sensitive to inflation expectations, and with inflation gauges still above the Fed's target of 2%, we believe this tight correlation will likely persist for a while."

The Trading Economics snapshot also shows the 10-year TIPS yield at 2.64%, versus the 5.02% nominal 10-year. Subtracting the two implies a market-priced inflation expectation, or breakeven rate, of roughly 2.38% (5.02% minus 2.64%) — our calculation from the same Trading Economics table — above the Fed's 2% target. Interpretation: that same table shows the nominal 10-year up 0.983 percentage points over the past year against a 0.974-point rise in the 10-year TIPS yield, so on those figures most of the past year's increase has come from higher real yields rather than a wider inflation breakeven. On the data front, CNBC reported that August producer prices rose 0.4% month over month, in line with Dow Jones consensus, while core PPI rose 0.2%, slightly softer than the 0.3% forecast, even as August inflation stayed well above the Fed's 2% target, per CNBC.

Treasury Supply and Buyback Dynamics

Supply-side moves have added to the volatility rather than calming it. The Treasury Department said on Aug. 19 it would at least double the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupons, from a $2 billion to at least a $4 billion maximum per operation, effective Sept. 9 through Nov. 4, 2026, according to a Treasury Department press release.

Yet the follow-through disappointed some investors. CNBC reported that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sept. 9 the department would buy back $6 billion of longer-dated debt, less than the $7 billion to $8 billion some on Wall Street had expected, according to Peter Boockvar of The Boock Report. The next day's operation came in even lighter: Treasury repurchased nearly $5.2 billion in off-the-run 10- and 20-year notes out of $10.5 billion offered, concentrated among a few holders likely to be primary dealers, per CNBC.

Auction demand, by contrast, has held up. BMO Capital Markets said the Sept. 10 30-year auction "was very strong with a stop-through of 2.7 bp and non-dealer bidding of 97.8% vs. an 88.5% 6-reopening average," according to CNBC, and BMO's Ian Lyngen noted the market rallied off session lows following a strong 10-year auction on Sept. 9.

Fiscal Backdrop

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has flagged the fiscal cost of the higher-rate regime. In a Sept. 9 analysis, CRFB said the 10-year had closed at 4.8%, a level not seen in nearly three years and more than 60 basis points above Congressional Budget Office estimates, while the 2-year sat at a near two-year high of 4.4%. CRFB estimated that if rates stayed 64 basis points above CBO projections across the yield curve through the decade, it would add $2.3 trillion to the national debt, pushing debt to 125% of GDP by 2036 instead of 120%.

Where Forecasters See Yields Heading

Trading Economics' global macro models and analyst expectations put the 10-year at 4.96% by the end of this quarter and 4.73% in 12 months, both below Tuesday's 5.02% print. The gap between those two projections is 0.23 percentage points (4.96% minus 4.73%), a roughly 4.9% relative decline, our calculation from the Trading Economics figures. UBS chief investment officer of the Americas Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi offered a similar caution in a note earlier this month, telling clients that "uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, fiscal concerns, and rising AI-related debt issuance have all kept bonds under pressure," and that "yield volatility is likely to persist in the near term." Separately, Trading Economics attributed part of the long-end pressure to surging corporate debt issuance from AI companies, which it said has constrained capital allocation by primary dealers and other financial institutions.

Bottom Line

The 10-year Treasury yield's break above 5% marks its highest level since 2007, driven by a near-certain expectation of a Fed rate hike, an oil-driven jump in inflation expectations, and Treasury buyback operations that have come in smaller than some dealers hoped. Auction demand has stayed firm even as spot yields climbed, and forecasters at Trading Economics see yields gradually easing over the next year, though CRFB's fiscal arithmetic underscores how costly a prolonged period of elevated rates could be for the federal budget.

China's August Data Diverge: Retail Sales Stumble, Investment Slump Deepens as Industrial Output Beats Forecasts

Traders Agency Team — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 05:56:47 GMT

China's economy sent mixed signals in August, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Retail sales growth slowed to 0.4% year-on-year, missing economists' expectations, while fixed-asset investment for the January-August period fell 7.2%, deepening a slump led by the property sector. Industrial output, by contrast, beat forecasts, expanding 5.2% year-on-year and accelerating from July.

Retail Sales Miss Deepens Consumption Concerns

Retail sales rose 0.4% in August from a year earlier, slowing from 0.6% growth in July and falling short of the 0.8% increase expected in a Reuters poll of economists, according to CNBC. That represents a 0.4 percentage point miss against the poll's consensus (0.8% forecast minus 0.4% actual, our calculation).

Industrial Output Surprises to the Upside

Source: CNBC, based on National Bureau of Statistics data (August 2026).

Industrial output told a different story. Value-added industrial production rose 5.2% year-on-year in August, up from 4.5% in July and above the 4.8% consensus forecast cited by CNBC, a beat of 0.4 percentage point (our calculation: 5.2% minus 4.8%). The NBS said the pace quickened by 0.7 percentage point from the previous month, with output up 0.54% on a month-on-month basis, according to National Business Daily's report on the release.

The strength was concentrated in high-value manufacturing. Equipment manufacturing value-added grew 12.1% and high-tech manufacturing 16.7% in August, respectively 6.9 and 11.5 percentage points faster than overall industrial output, National Business Daily reported. Mining output fell 1.4%, according to the NBS's own industrial data release.

Fixed-Asset Investment Slide Widens

Fixed-asset investment for the first eight months of the year fell 7.2% from a year earlier, according to NBS data, with declines recorded in every region of the country. The northeast posted the steepest regional contraction, down 25.5%, followed by the east (down 9.4%), the west (down 8.8%) and central China (down 8.7%), per the same NBS release.

Within the national investment total, property development investment fell 19.9% year-on-year, infrastructure investment declined 4.0% and manufacturing investment dropped 2.3%, according to the same National Business Daily report of the NBS release. Of those three components, property recorded by far the steepest decline, while infrastructure and manufacturing spending also contracted — a comparison based on the reported percentage changes rather than on component weightings.

NBS Acknowledges Supply-Demand Imbalance, Calls for More Support

In its statement accompanying the data, the NBS said the adverse impact of the external environment has deepened and that the domestic contradiction between "strong supply and weak demand" is acute, adding that some businesses continue to face operating difficulties and that the foundation for steady improvement needs consolidating. CNBC reported the bureau describing the imbalance between supply and demand as "acute."

The bureau called for stronger macro-policy adjustment, efforts to expand domestic demand, and industrial upgrading to strengthen growth momentum, according to both National Business Daily and CNBC's coverage of the statement. Beyond that language, the NBS did not detail specific new stimulus measures in the reported statement.

Credit, Trade and the Growth Outlook

Weakness was also evident in credit data released ahead of the activity figures. New bank loans expanded by just 60 billion yuan ($8.95 billion) in August, versus a roughly 400 billion yuan forecast and down from 590 billion yuan a year earlier, CNBC reported, a shortfall of roughly 340 billion yuan against the forecast (our calculation: 400bn minus 60bn). Outstanding loan growth slowed to a record-low 4.9%.

Trade was the clearer bright spot. Goods exports rose 18.6% and imports 21.7% in yuan terms in August, lifting total trade growth to 19.8%, 0.6 percentage point faster than July, National Business Daily reported. China's official manufacturing PMI also showed new orders and output returning to expansion in August after contracting in July, per CNBC.

The broader growth backdrop remains soft. Second-quarter GDP growth slowed to 4.3%, the weakest pace in more than three years, and policymakers have so far relied on incremental measures such as increased government bond issuance and expanded loan-interest subsidies rather than aggressive stimulus, CNBC reported. Oxford Economics estimates third-quarter growth at 4.3%, with weak consumption and the property slump cited as the biggest drags even as exports and high-tech manufacturing add momentum, against Beijing's annual target range of 4.5% to 5%, according to CNBC's reporting of the firm's estimate.

Analysts quoted by CNBC pointed to fiscal policy as the key swing factor. Zhiwei Zhang, president at Pinpoint Asset Management, said "the market is waiting for the fiscal policy to become more supportive in Q3." Separately, ANZ Research economists led by Raymond Yeung wrote that "September could represent an important policy window to revive business confidence ahead of October's Golden Week holidays," while suggesting more fiscal support is needed even as a policy rate cut remains unlikely, per CNBC.

Bottom Line

August's data present a split picture: an industrial sector outperforming expectations on the back of high-tech manufacturing and trade, against a consumer and investment backdrop that continues to soften, with property investment down almost a fifth year-to-date. On our reading of the NBS's own language — acknowledging an "acute" supply-demand imbalance and calling for stronger macro-policy adjustment — officials appear to view current settings as needing reinforcement, though the reported statement stopped short of announcing new measures. Whether additional fiscal support materializes in the coming weeks, as some economists quoted by CNBC anticipate, will shape whether the divergence between industrial strength and consumer weakness narrows or widens.

Barrick and Newmont End Nevada Gold Mines Dispute With $1.95bn Payment to Barrick

Traders Agency Team — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 22:11:06 GMT

Barrick Mining and Newmont have settled a months-long dispute over their Nevada Gold Mines joint venture, agreeing to fold Barrick's Fourmile project and Newmont's Fiberline and Mike developments into the JV in exchange for a US$1.95 billion cash payment from Newmont to Barrick, according to Mining.com and RTTNews. The companies announced the agreement on August 10, 2026, alongside Barrick's second-quarter results. The cash is due within 30 days, per Mining Forum and BNN Bloomberg.

Terms of the settlement

Ownership split of Nevada Gold Mines remains unchanged after the settlement, per BNN Bloomberg.

Under the amended joint venture agreement, Newmont's Fiberline and Mike developments and Barrick's Fourmile development move into Nevada Gold Mines, RTTNews reported. Ownership of the JV itself does not change: Barrick continues to hold 61.5 percent and Newmont 38.5 percent, with the newly contributed properties coming in under that existing split, BNN Bloomberg and Streetwise Reports noted. Barrick remains operator of the venture, and that operatorship is set to sit inside Barrick's planned North American listed entity, according to BNN Bloomberg.

The companies also described the deal as including "enhanced governance provisions under a modernized joint venture agreement," per RTTNews, though the reporting reviewed does not detail the specific mechanics of those provisions. Barrick chief executive Mark Hill framed the alignment as removing internal friction over how the JV allocates resources: he said the goal is to increase processing capacity and stop trucking ore across the state, which he said requires combining the assets and evaluating whether a roaster or an autoclave can be justified, according to Mining Forum. Barrick separately said the combination creates a nearly 100-million-ounce gold complex in Nevada, BNN Bloomberg reported.

Valuation and market reaction

The settlement resolves a dispute in which Newmont had raised accusations of resource diversion within the JV, accusations that Goldfinger Capital's Robert Sinn wrote carried enough weight to threaten delays to Barrick's IPO plans, according to Streetwise Reports. Several analysts described the US$1.95 billion price as attractive for Newmont relative to independent valuations of the Fourmile interest, a view attributed by Streetwise Reports to an August 10 Seeking Alpha report by Carl Surran. That same report noted Barrick shares fell 7.3 percent on the announcement, with some investors viewing the consideration as below expectations.

Trading data from announcement day, as reported by BNN Bloomberg and RTTNews, showed Barrick shares down 8 percent on the Toronto Stock Exchange by 1:00 p.m. ET, while Newmont traded up 0.79 percent in pre-market activity in New York at US$113.88, after closing the prior Friday's session 7.16 percent higher. The two readings were taken at different points in the trading day, but the divergence, read at face value, is consistent with the market viewing the settlement terms as more favourable to Newmont than to Barrick - an interpretation, not a characterisation either company has made in the material reviewed.

Clearing the path for Barrick's North American listing

As part of the settlement, Newmont formally consented to Barrick's proposed IPO of its North American gold assets, per RTTNews. That consent removes a specific obstacle: Reuters had earlier reported that Barrick needed Newmont's approval to proceed with the spin-off because Newmont held a first right of refusal if Barrick tried to sell its NGM stake, according to BNN Bloomberg. The planned listing perimeter covers Barrick's 61.5 percent stake in Nevada Gold Mines and its 60 percent stake in Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic, along with Fourmile, other North American exploration properties and the assets newly contributed by Newmont, per BNN Bloomberg and Mining Forum.

Barrick is targeting completion of the IPO by the end of 2026, with a primary listing in New York and a secondary listing in Toronto, according to Streetwise Reports. Hill said all operating and separation agreements between Barrick and the spin-off entity had been completed and that the company was close to filing formal documents with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, per Mining Forum. Barrick intends to retain 90 percent of the new company, with proceeds largely returned to shareholders, and Hill is set to become CEO of the North American entity on separation, while Barrick searches for a new CEO to run its non-North American business, BNN Bloomberg reported. Shortly after the settlement, Barrick named Sebastiaan Bock as CEO, Rest of World, reporting to Hill, according to Mining Digital.

Not every shareholder is on board with the broader separation strategy. Bloomberg reported, as cited by Mining Forum, that institutional investors including Franklin Equity Group opposed the plan, and Mackenzie portfolio manager Benoit Gervais has publicly called for Barrick chairman John Thornton to step down, per Mining.com.

What Fourmile adds

Barrick expects Fourmile to produce up to 750,000 ounces of gold annually, according to Investing News. The company doubled its Fourmile resource estimate for a second consecutive year in February 2026 to roughly 15.6 million ounces, with a pre-feasibility study still scheduled for the end of 2028, per Streetwise Reports; no first-production date has been disclosed in the reporting reviewed. Folding Fourmile into NGM is expected to give it access to shared infrastructure and may reduce standalone infrastructure, development and study spending for the enlarged joint venture, Streetwise Reports said, characterizing this as a potential source of cost savings rather than a confirmed figure.

The settlement arrived alongside Barrick's second-quarter results, where adjusted earnings of $0.82 per share matched the LSEG analyst estimate, Hill noted, pushing back on media characterizations of the quarter as a miss, per Mining Forum. Gold output of 796,000 ounces rose 11 percent from the first quarter and beat guidance of 730,000 to 770,000 ounces, driven in part by record underground tonnes at Cortez as the Goldrush project continued ramping up, according to Mining.com and Mining Forum. Barrick also cut attributable capital expenditure guidance to $3.8-4.2 billion from $4-4.45 billion, which Hill attributed to a decision not to begin construction at Reko Diq in Pakistan this year while that asset remains under review, per Mining Forum.

Bottom Line

The settlement clears the specific governance and consent obstacles that had put Barrick's planned North American listing at risk, folding disputed Nevada properties into the existing 61.5/38.5 joint venture structure rather than renegotiating the ownership split itself. The market's initial split reaction, Barrick shares down sharply while Newmont held steadier, points to differing investor views on whether $1.95 billion adequately compensates Barrick for Fourmile, a question that will likely be revisited as Barrick's IPO documentation and Fourmile's pre-feasibility study progress toward their respective 2026 and 2028 milestones.

Bank of America CEO Warns Q3 Investment Banking Fees Could Fall More Than 10%, Trading Revenue Seen Flat

Traders Agency Team — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 20:39:00 GMT

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan told analysts at a conference Monday that the bank's third-quarter investment banking fees are likely to decline by more than 10% from the year-earlier period, while trading revenue will be roughly flat, according to CNBC. Shares of the bank fell sharply following the remarks.

What Moynihan Said

Speaking at the conference, Moynihan pointed to broader industry softness rather than a company-specific problem alone. "What we're seeing is the market generally in investment banking is down 10%," he said, citing Dealogic data, according to CNBC. He added that Bank of America's own mix of businesses could make its decline steeper than the industry average: "We're not as well positioned in some of the businesses that have more activity, so we'll be down probably a bit more than that," he said, per CNBC's report.

Despite the softer near-term outlook, Moynihan pointed to a robust deal pipeline, particularly in middle-market investment banking, CNBC reported. That comment leaves open the question of whether the third-quarter slowdown is a temporary lull in deal timing or a more durable shift, a point CNBC itself raised in noting that the guidance "may make investors wonder if the industry's surge in capital markets activity will prove short-lived."

The Numbers Behind the Guidance

Bank of America's second-quarter investment banking fees rose 50% year-over-year, outpacing the 33% jump in trading revenue, per CNBC — the strong baseline against which the new Q3 guidance of falling fees and flat trading revenue stands out.

The new guidance stands in sharp contrast to Bank of America's second-quarter results. CNBC reported that the bank posted a 50% year-over-year jump in investment banking fees and a 33% year-over-year jump in trading revenue in the second quarter.

Based on those two reported figures, the second quarter's investment banking growth rate exceeded its trading revenue growth rate by 17 percentage points (50 minus 33), a relative gap of roughly 51.5% ((50 - 33) / 33 x 100). That arithmetic comparison, drawn directly from CNBC's reported second-quarter figures, underscores how much more the bank's advisory and underwriting business outperformed trading last quarter, before the third-quarter guidance pointed the other direction: fees now expected to fall while trading holds roughly steady.

Market Reaction

Investors reacted quickly to the comments. CNBC reported that Bank of America shares were down 5% in afternoon trading Monday following Moynihan's remarks. Seeking Alpha put the decline at 5.29%, with shares trading at $59.38 shortly before Monday's close, and noted that the stock "plunge[d]" after the CEO said sales and trading revenue would be "flat" year-over-year, part of a broader sell-off among bank stocks that day, per Seeking Alpha.

A Possible Early Signal for Wall Street

CNBC framed the guidance as evidence that Bank of America is heading into "a far more subdued few months" for its Wall Street advisory and trading businesses after a blockbuster second quarter. The outlet went further, suggesting the muted outlook from the country's second-largest bank by assets "could be an early signal that Wall Street's AI-fueled advisory and trading boom might have hit turbulence."

That framing is CNBC's interpretation rather than a claim made by Moynihan himself in the reported remarks, and readers should treat it as such. The underlying facts are narrower: one bank's CEO guided a single quarter's investment banking fees lower and its trading revenue roughly flat, while also describing a robust deal pipeline. Whether that combination reflects a temporary pause in deal timing, a broader market pullback, or something more structural is not resolved by the available reporting.

Bottom Line

Bank of America's CEO has now put a specific, if preliminary, number on the third quarter: investment banking fees down more than 10% year-over-year, with trading revenue roughly flat. That guidance follows an unusually strong second quarter, in which investment banking fees jumped 50% and trading revenue jumped 33%, according to CNBC. The stock's roughly 5% drop Monday shows investors took the comments seriously, even as Moynihan flagged a healthy pipeline, particularly in middle-market banking, that could support activity later in the year. For now, the reported facts stop with a guided quarter and a market reaction, leaving open the broader question of whether this marks a turning point for Wall Street's capital markets rebound.

Stock Market Today: Communication Services Leads While S&P 500 Slips

Traders Agency Team — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 20:08:42 GMT

Communication Services Leads While S&P 500 Slips

Communication Services was the standout story of the trading day, rallying while almost everything else around it slipped. The sector's gain was the single biggest move on the board Monday, a sharp contrast to the broader tape where the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones all finished in the red.

The divergence came against a backdrop of surging oil prices, escalating tensions in the Middle East and a Federal Reserve meeting now just days away.

Yahoo Finance's TheStreet reported that stocks opened the week on a defensive footing as Brent crude jumped after fresh attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and a drone strike that prompted Saudi Arabia to temporarily shut a key pipeline. Communication Services traders apparently weren't reading the same headlines as everyone else.

Market Scorecard

Asset	Value	Change	% Change
S&P 500	7,619.95	-37.03	▼ -0.48%
Nasdaq Composite	26,186.41	-146.62	▼ -0.56%
Dow Jones	52,421.28	-152.01	▼ -0.29%
Russell 2000	2,896.62	-7.32	▼ -0.25%
5Y Treasury	4.800%	+2.0 bps	▲
10Y Treasury	4.970%	+1.0 bps	▲
30Y Treasury	5.340%	-1.0 bps	▼
Bitcoin	$78,973.12	+2,134.96	▲ +2.78%
Ethereum	$2,540.23	+63.21	▲ +2.55%

Data timing: 2026-09-14 session; snapshot retrieved Sep 14, 2026, 4:02 PM EDT. Prepared Sep 14, 4:08 PM EDT. Sources: Yahoo Finance via yfinance (indexes and sector ETFs), U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates, Yahoo Finance point-in-time crypto observations. Crypto values are timestamped point-in-time observations.

Every major index finished the session lower Monday, though the damage stayed contained across the board. Bitcoin and Ethereum moved the opposite direction, posting gains even as equities retreated. That split kept the day from feeling like a uniform risk-off rout.

Sector Performance

Sector		Daily Change
1.Communication Services XLC		▲ +2.17%
2.Health Care XLV		▲ +1.43%
3.Consumer Staples XLP		▲ +1.25%
4.Consumer Discretionary XLY		▼ -0.12%
5.Financials XLF		▼ -0.37%
6.Real Estate XLRE		▼ -0.66%
7.Energy XLE		▼ -0.92%
8.Materials XLB		▼ -0.94%
9.Utilities XLU		▼ -1.36%
10.Industrials XLI		▼ -1.40%
11.Technology XLK		▼ -1.82%

Communication Services led every other group by a wide margin, with Health Care and Consumer Staples also finishing higher in a session that otherwise favored defense over growth.

Technology brought up the rear, weighed down after Yahoo Finance's TheStreet reported that Nvidia, AMD and Sandisk fell following an essay from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei urging the AI industry to slow development of frontier models over safety concerns. Reuters reported the same worries hit European tech shares, noting that an AI slowdown call combined with the oil surge weighed on markets across the region.

Financials also finished lower after Bank of America shares dropped when CEO Brian Moynihan told investors that quarterly sales and trading revenue would be flat year over year, according to Seeking Alpha, which reported that bank stocks sold off alongside it.

Energy slipped as well, even with crude prices climbing. CNBC noted that refiners are already sitting on record margins and record share prices, while many oil service names, including SLB, have rallied but are not yet back at all-time highs.

MarketWatch reported that the 30-year mortgage rate jumped to its highest level in nearly two years, after the 10-year Treasury yield crossed a closely watched threshold on Monday. That move landed on the same day Reuters reported that the biggest risk for a sinking bond market may be the Fed standing pat.

Looking Ahead

Wall Street heads into a stacked week with the Federal Open Market Committee's rate decision landing Wednesday. TheStreet reported that markets were pricing a high probability of a Fed rate hike after Friday's hotter CPI report, with traders also increasingly expecting another hike before year end.

Another Fed rate hike remains a meaningful possibility this week, but that pricing could shift quickly if the press conference commentary surprises in either direction.

Oil stays the wildcard. CNBC pointed to a run of geopolitical disruptions in energy markets, including Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and recent attacks on Saudi pipelines, and further escalation in the Middle East could keep energy markets on edge right through the Fed meeting.

With oil, AI sentiment and Treasury yields all moving at once, Wednesday's decision may be just one of several forces pulling on stocks this week, not the only one.

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Revised Clarity Act Adds Trump-Backed Ethics Curbs and Stablecoin 'Circuit Breaker' Ahead of Tuesday Senate Vote

Traders Agency Team — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 19:46:49 GMT

Senate Republicans released an updated version of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act late Sunday, calling it their final offer to Democrats ahead of a preliminary Senate vote scheduled for Tuesday. The revision folds in new ethics restrictions that President Trump has agreed to support, along with a compromise mechanism aimed at addressing community banks' fears that yield-bearing stablecoins could drain deposits, according to CNBC.

What the new ethics language covers

The revised bill lets state attorneys general help enforce ethics rules on federal officials, part of a compromise Republicans say reflects a Tillis-Gallego deal.

The updated text incorporates what Republican sponsors describe as large parts of an ethics agreement brokered by Sens. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), including a Democratic demand to let state attorneys general enforce ethics requirements on federal officials, CNBC reported.

An earlier July draft of the ethics package, detailed by law firm Davis Wright Tremaine, barred covered public officials, employees and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring a digital asset for consideration during a covered period. Officials could avoid violating the rule by placing a prior interest in a qualified blind trust, divesting it, or both. That ban is set to sunset after January 20, 2029.

Watchdog group Transparency International U.S. argued that framework leaves significant gaps: it does not clearly require divestment from business, revenue-sharing or family arrangements tied to the Trump family's crypto ventures, it expressly allows preexisting ventures to keep using Trump's name and likeness to mint and sell additional digital assets once covered interests are divested or blind-trusted, and the 2029 sunset erases liability for earlier violations, the group said. Financial disclosures cited by Coinage Media showed crypto businesses associated with Trump and his family generated roughly $1.4 billion in income in 2025; the White House has denied that the president or his family engaged in conflicts of interest.

The White House press office told CNBC that Congress "must pass the CLARITY Act" and that the administration "has already agreed to the most comprehensive and wide-ranging ethics provision in history," without directly answering CNBC's questions about the specifics of its latest concessions.

The stablecoin-yield circuit breaker and bank pushback

Banking groups say the Treasury-directed circuit breaker only engages after substantial deposit flight from community banks has already happened.

The revised bill adds a compromise on stablecoin yield intended to appease banking interests: it directs the Treasury secretary to restrict rewards on stablecoins if deposit flight from community banks occurs on a substantial scale, CNBC reported. Banks have said they cannot support the bill unless it stops interest-like payments on stablecoins outright, warning that customers would otherwise shift deposits into high-yield crypto accounts.

The Independent Community Bankers of America, joined by seven other banking associations, wrote in a Monday letter that the circuit breaker is insufficient because it only activates after deposit flight has already occurred. "A circuit breaker that activates only after substantial deposit flight has already occurred is not a safeguard at all," the groups wrote, adding that "further technical refinements are needed to ensure that the text clearly and directly prohibits interest-like payments on payment stablecoins." The groups also argued the mechanism's inclusion amounts to an admission of risk, writing that it "is an acknowledgment that shifting deposits from regulated financial institutions into payment stablecoins can threaten credit availability and create broader economic consequences."

American Bankers Association executive Brooke Ybarra said the group's lobbying has centered on deposits that fund local lending, telling CNBC there is a "growing number of lawmakers who share our concerns with the current interest loophole in the bill." Separately, Coinbase struck an agreement last week with financial services provider Moov to give community banks access to stablecoin capabilities, a move CNBC characterized as likely aimed at easing community bank fears about the legislation.

SEC and CFTC jurisdiction, DeFi and market structure

The bill's broader market-structure architecture was largely set in the July merged text, before the latest round of ethics negotiations. A July 22 text spanning 616 pages merged the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees' bills into a single framework, according to law firm Paul Hastings. That merged text more clearly defines when digital assets are treated as securities versus commodities and divides authority between the SEC and CFTC, Coinage Media reported, and it gives the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over registered digital commodity intermediaries while preserving state authority to bring enforcement action for fraud, deceit or manipulation, per Davis Wright Tremaine's summary.

The text also preserves the Banking Committee's provisions on stablecoin yield, DeFi risk management, and developer protections, adds protections for decentralized-governance systems by directing the SEC to focus on activities relevant to actual control of a distributed ledger system when determining whether persons are acting in concert, and requires the SEC to adopt insider-trading rules covering control persons and others with material nonpublic information about ancillary assets. It further expands CFTC registration to digital commodity pool operators and trading advisors, replacing a prior provisional-registration approach with a notice-of-intent process, according to Davis Wright Tremaine. Most provisions would take effect 360 days after enactment, and the bill must still be reconciled with the House's version of the CLARITY Act if it passes the Senate, per the same summary.

Not every group that weighed in has stayed opposed. The Fraternal Order of Police reversed an earlier letter opposing the bill on July 24, writing in support after the revision of developer-protection language in the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act provisions, according to Paul Hastings.

The vote count

Passage requires 60 votes, meaning at least seven Democrats would need to support the measure with full attendance, CNBC reported. The Senate Banking Committee advanced its version by a bipartisan 15-9 vote in May, but only two Democrats backed it out of committee, and Democrats have said broadly they cannot support the bill without stronger ethics language.

Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) came out against the bill in a Sunday video posted to X, calling it "a bill that is masquerading as a way to create good regulation and protection for consumers" with "big problems that have not been fixed," and said "we can't let this pass," per CNBC. Seven Democrats who had been negotiating on the bill issued a joint statement raising concerns with the July text, according to Paul Hastings, and Banking Committee Ranking Member Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) separately warned the proposal contained "significant flaws," arguing any final bill must prevent presidents, lawmakers, senior officials and their families from profiting from the industry, according to Coinage Media.

Lead sponsor Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) said the updated text "includes more than 120 of Democrats' demands" and urged colleagues to "take yes for an answer," CNBC reported. A Democratic aide, speaking to CNBC on condition of anonymity, said Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has pitched Tuesday's vote as a "free vote" to keep the bill moving toward further amendment, and that the White House has signaled additional ethics concessions only if the preliminary vote succeeds. If the vote fails, CNBC noted it remains unclear whether lawmakers would have time to amend the package and pass it before the end of this Congress.

Industry positioning and odds

Galaxy Digital's research-based passage-odds estimate fell from 75% in late May to 60% in June, per Coinage Media — a snapshot of shifting sentiment before Tuesday's vote, not a live forecast.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong told CNBC the legislation is ready for Senate support, but argued that failure would still be "a good outcome" because the SEC and CFTC have said they are ready to publish rulemaking, giving the industry regulatory clarity "one way or another" within days of the vote.

Fundstrat's Sean Farrell told Coinage Media that ethics provisions remain the bill's central obstacle, describing the situation as "kind of a binary situation" and saying that absent the ethics fight he would rate passage odds "north of 80%"; with the fight ongoing, he said the outlook swings between 40% and 60% "on seemingly a daily basis." Coinage also reported that Galaxy Digital's research estimated a 75% chance of passage in late May, cutting that to 60% in June. By our calculation, that is a 15-percentage-point decline (75 minus 60) between the two estimates, a roughly 25% relative decrease (15 divided by 60), based on the figures Galaxy Digital reported to Coinage Media. Those are past estimates tied to specific months, not a live probability of Tuesday's outcome.

Bottom line

The revised Clarity Act narrows some gaps flagged by Democrats and banking groups, adding state attorney general enforcement power over ethics rules and a Treasury-directed deposit-flight backstop for stablecoin yield. But banking associations call the circuit breaker reactive rather than preventive, and watchdog groups say the ethics provisions still leave core Trump family crypto income streams outside clear divestment requirements. With only two Democrats having backed the bill in committee and at least seven needed for Tuesday's procedural threshold, the outcome remains contested, and even bill supporters like Coinbase's Armstrong have framed a stalled vote as tolerable given anticipated SEC and CFTC rulemaking.

The Hardest Trade to Ignore

Traders Agency Team — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 18:30:35 GMT

Hey friend,

Nothing on the economic calendar today.

But of course, the biggest item on the menu today is the Fed meeting – with the decision out Wednesday.

Let’s see how the markets have been moving.

The Daily Direction

Note: All indexes closed higher to end last week but gapped lower this morning – sending the short and medium-term directions of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq downward.

The Daily Nugget

The hardest trade to ignore is the one everyone is talking about.

Big market weeks tend to create a handful of “obvious” trades.

Everyone starts talking about the same rate-sensitive stocks.

The same mega-cap names.

The same sectors that are supposed to benefit if the Fed does X or get hammered if it does Y.

And after hearing the same idea five or six times, it starts to feel like you’re missing something if you don’t trade it.

That’s where people get sucked in.

It isn’t because the setup is great.

It’s because the trade has become impossible to ignore.

But attention and opportunity are not the same thing.

Some of the best trades have almost no buzz around them at all.

A stock can be barely discussed…

Yet a lot of serious money can still be flowing into it quietly.

And that’s exactly why Ross spends so much time tracking institutional footprints.

A fund doesn’t need CNBC talking about a stock before it starts building a position.

It just needs to believe the opportunity is there.

The Traders Agency Team

P.S. Ross is going LIVE tomorrow at 11 a.m. Eastern for a special strategy session on one of his favorite ways to track where the big money is moving.

He’ll show you how he looks for the footprints large institutions can leave while they’re building positions…

How he uses those clues to narrow in on stocks that may be attracting serious buying…

And how smaller traders can potentially get positioned while that money is still coming in.

It’s the same approach that helped us identify opportunities like NuScale Power before a 146% move in 53 days… Alpine Immune Sciences before 206% in 77 days… and Nikola before 87% in just 24 hours.

Click here to reserve your free seat for tomorrow at 11 a.m. ET.

P.P.S. If you’re planning to attend on a mobile device, make sure you download the presentation app now so you don’t miss anything when it starts. See you there.

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Abbott to Pay $384.99 Million to Settle False Claims Act Case Over Sturgis and Casa Grande Infant Formula

Traders Agency Team — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 18:14:53 GMT

Abbott Laboratories has agreed to pay $384,999,040 to resolve civil False Claims Act allegations that it caused false claims to be submitted to federal and state health programs for powder infant formula and nutritional therapy products made at its Sturgis, Michigan, and Casa Grande, Arizona, plants between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2022, the U.S. Department of Justice announced. The claims resolved by the settlement are allegations only, and there has been no determination of liability, according to the Justice Department.

How the settlement is structured

Breakdown of Abbott's $384,999,040 False Claims Act settlement announced by the Justice Department.

Under the civil settlement agreement, Abbott will pay $348,700,868 to the United States to resolve the False Claims Act allegations, plus an additional $36,298,172 to certain states for claims settled through their Medicaid and WIC programs, the DOJ said. Together those two figures add up to the total $384,999,040 payment. More than half of all infant formula purchased in the United States is paid for with USDA funds through WIC, and state Medicaid programs also cover formula costs, which is how the government came to have a financial stake in the products' compliance with federal and state requirements.

The resolution is a civil settlement of a qui tam case, brought under the False Claims Act's whistleblower provisions, captioned United States, et al., ex rel. Scott Millard, et al., v. Abbott Laboratories, No. 1:22-cv-994, in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Michigan. Three relators in the case who were Abbott employees, Scott Millard, Kristine Cooper and Loren Cooper, will receive $69 million as their share of the federal settlement, the DOJ said. The United States filed its Complaint in Intervention on November 13, 2025, alleging Abbott caused government programs to purchase powder infant formula manufactured at the Sturgis facility despite the products' failure to meet statutory, regulatory and contractual requirements.

There was no finding of liability and Abbott did not admit wrongdoing as part of the settlement. Abbott said in a statement that the Justice Department closed a related criminal investigation, according to reporting carried by AOL.

What the government alleged inside the Sturgis plant

The government's complaint alleges Abbott used temporary "roof leak umbrellas" to divert leaks over equipment rather than fixing the underlying roof problems.

The DOJ's complaint described a pattern of plant conditions and internal decisions that officials said increased contamination risk. As described in the complaint, roof leaks were a common occurrence at the Sturgis plant, leading to water running and dripping over equipment. Rather than permanently addressing the root causes, Abbott used temporary solutions such as "roof leak umbrellas" to try to divert leaks in product processing areas, even though the complaint alleges Abbott's corporate leadership understood that the wet environment put products at increased risk of microorganism contamination.

The complaint further alleged that Abbott continued to run spray dryers, which turn liquid formula into powder, even after documenting cracks and pits in the equipment that also raised the risk of contamination, particularly in the presence of moisture. The government alleged Abbott made dryer conditions worse by lengthening the number of product batches passed through the dryers between cleaning cycles in order to increase production. According to the complaint, Abbott intentionally did not test for bacterial growth to avoid obtaining positive results showing contamination, and in certain instances where testing did show contamination, the company failed to disclose those results when responding to FDA requests during 2019 and 2022 inspections at Sturgis.

Officials and Abbott respond

Acting Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter called the settlement "a victory for American families" that "makes clear the safety of our children is not negotiable," adding that "Abbott will pay a substantial sum to resolve serious allegations it violated federal health and safety requirements designed to protect babies," according to the DOJ. Associate Attorney General Stanley E. Woodward Jr. said "no company should be gambling on the health and safety of our Nation's infants by allowing unsanitary conditions to persist at a facility manufacturing baby formula."

Abbott, in a statement carried by AOL, said "nothing matters more than the safety and quality of Abbott's products," adding that no unopened, distributed Abbott infant formulas have ever tested positive for the bacteria at issue. The company said it makes infant formula "with the same care" it would for its own families and is "deeply committed to earning and maintaining caregivers' trust."

The resolution was handled by the Justice Department's Civil Division, Commercial Litigation Branch, Civil Fraud Section, and the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Western District of Michigan, with assistance from the USDA's Office of Inspector General.

Separate from the personal-injury litigation

The $384,999,040 civil fraud settlement over federal and state program purchases is separate from Abbott's $670 million settlement with private plaintiffs over preterm-infant formula injury claims.

This civil fraud settlement is distinct from a separate track of personal-injury litigation Abbott has been navigating over its specialty formulas for preterm infants. According to Yahoo Finance, Abbott said on August 20, 2026, that it had reached a $670 million settlement with three law firms to resolve claims by 2,000 people who alleged harms relating to its specialty formulas for preterm infants, a deal that includes one large case in which Abbott had already been ordered to pay $495 million. Yahoo Finance reported that about 1,000 similar necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) lawsuits have been filed against Abbott, which makes Similac formulas, and against Reckitt's Mead Johnson unit, which makes Enfamil formulas, with more than 800 of the cases centralized in an Illinois federal court and others pending in state courts including Illinois, Missouri and Pennsylvania. Separately, plaintiffs' law firm Motley Rice reported that as of January 5, 2026, there were 769 pending actions in the related multidistrict litigation docket, In re: Abbott Laboratories, et al., Preterm Infant Nutrition Products Liability Litigation, MDL No. 3026.

NEC mostly affects premature newborns, causes the death of bowel tissue, and has an estimated mortality rate of more than 20%, according to Yahoo Finance's reporting. Abbott and Mead Johnson have said that while breast milk protects against the disease, their formulas do not cause it. The DOJ's announcement of the $384,999,040 False Claims Act settlement addresses claims submitted to federal and state health programs and makes no reference to the separate personal-injury cases, which involve private plaintiffs rather than government purchasers.

The False Claims Act case traces back to Abbott's 2022 recall and closure of the Sturgis plant, which followed the discovery of traces of a potentially deadly bacteria at the facility, according to reporting carried by AOL. That recall and closure worsened a national infant-formula shortage that had begun amid pandemic-era supply-chain problems.

Bottom Line

The $384,999,040 figure resolves civil, not criminal, allegations under the False Claims Act, and Abbott said the Justice Department closed a related criminal investigation. Abbott admitted no wrongdoing, and the settlement is formally described as resolving allegations only, with no determination of liability. It sits alongside, but separate from, the company's $670 million settlement of private necrotizing enterocolitis claims disclosed about three weeks earlier — a reading of the two resolutions that indicates Abbott's formula-related legal exposure has run on two distinct tracks: government false-claims liability tied to Medicaid and WIC purchases, and private personal-injury litigation over preterm-infant formula that remains active in federal and state courts.

10-Year Treasury Yield Briefly Tops 5% for First Time Since 2023, Two Days Before Fed Decision

Traders Agency Team — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 16:44:27 GMT

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touched 5% on Monday for the first time since October 2023, according to CNBC and Seeking Alpha, an intraday move that left the bond market's most closely watched rate just short of levels last seen before the 2008 financial crisis, two days ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision.

Yield Hits a Threshold Not Seen in Two Years

The 10-year yield's brief touch above 5% rattled traders even as equity markets stayed calm.

According to CNBC, the 10-year yield reached an intraday high of 5.014% before easing back. Seeking Alpha confirmed the yield crossed 5% for the first time since October 23, 2023, while CNN called the level a "critical threshold," noting the 10-year has otherwise not traded this high since 2007.

CNBC reported that a move beyond 5.02% would take the yield to its highest level since July 2007, before the global financial crisis, underscoring how close Monday's spike came to that marker. Elsewhere on the curve, CNBC said the 2-year yield, which is most sensitive to near-term Fed policy, fell more than 2 basis points to 4.615% after touching its highest level since July 2024 last week, while the 30-year bond yield slipped more than 3 basis points to 5.321%, a bond CNBC described as more sensitive to geopolitical risk than to Fed policy.

A Fed Decision Clouded by Inflation Data

The move comes as the Federal Reserve's policy meeting runs Tuesday and Wednesday this week. CNBC reported that fed funds futures tracked by the CME Group's FedWatch tool put the odds of a quarter-point rate increase at Wednesday's decision at 90%, following Friday's August consumer price index report, which CNBC said matched expectations but remained far above the Fed's 2% inflation goal, a gap that has persisted for five years.

Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, told CNBC that a hike would be "the cleaner decision based on the data and current market expectations," adding that "the market has priced that in and may rally with a hike," whereas holding rates steady "may cause a negative market reaction as it screams once again the Fed is behind the curve."

Mortgage Rates, Buybacks and a Muted Equity Reaction

Treasury's expanded buyback effort is small next to the roughly $1.2 trillion that changes hands daily in the nearly $32 trillion Treasury market.

The rise in long-term yields has already fed through to household borrowing costs. CNN reported that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.76% last week, its highest level in more than a year, up from 6.15% at the start of the year. By our calculation, that is a rise of 0.61 percentage points, or roughly 9.9%, over that period (6.76 minus 6.15, divided by 6.15, multiplied by 100).

Equities have so far taken the move in stride. CNN noted the S&P 500 remains up more than 10% for the year even as yields climbed steadily. CNBC cited BMO Capital Markets strategists observing that when the 10-year previously reached 4.85%, equity weakness stayed modest and the index was still up more than 11% for the year at that point.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has tried to relieve pressure at the long end of the curve through an expanded bond buyback program, according to both CNBC and CNN, but yields have kept climbing regardless. BMO Capital Markets strategists, cited by CNBC, said a more active buyback program "could help limit selling pressure" but "fails to address the prevailing fundamental drivers of the upward pressure on 10- and 30-year yields." CNBC added useful context on scale: roughly $1.2 trillion changes hands in the Treasury market each day, a market CNN describes as nearly $32 trillion and the dominant force in global bonds, meaning buybacks are small relative to the forces they aim to offset.

What's Driving the Selloff

Analysts and strategists cited several overlapping explanations for the move. Jason Ware, chief investment officer at Albion Financial Group, told CNBC the latest rise stems partly from a supply-demand imbalance as heavy Treasury and corporate debt issuance competes for investor capital. CNBC also pointed to large federal deficits, heavy debt issuance and sticky inflation as contributors to a rising term premium, the extra compensation investors demand for holding long-term debt instead of rolling over short-term bills, with surging crude oil prices cited as an additional source of price pressure.

Ware offered a more sanguine read as well, telling CNBC that higher yields are not necessarily bearish if accompanied by healthy growth, and arguing stocks are more vulnerable to a slowdown in consumer spending or artificial-intelligence investment than to the 10-year crossing what he called an "arbitrary threshold."

Not everyone was as relaxed. John Higgins, chief economic adviser for financial markets at Capital Economics, said in a note cited by CNN that 5% "is seen by some as a threshold above which financial markets might go into meltdown," while adding that "we aren't convinced that 5% is that 'magic' number." He cautioned that higher Treasury yields would nonetheless pose a risk to the sustainability of U.S. public finances and threaten equities. CNBC noted that George Awad, principal at Gibraltar Capital, has highlighted the leveraged hedge-fund exposure underpinning the Treasury market, including trades based on spreads between cash bonds and futures, with higher funding costs, margin requirements or increased volatility potentially forcing leveraged investors to unwind positions simultaneously and amplifying any selloff.

The Year's Climb in Context

The 10-year Treasury yield's path from 1.3% five years ago to Monday's 5% touch, according to CNN.

CNN traced the path that brought yields to this point: the 10-year entered the year trading at 4.15% and dipped below 4% in February, before reversing sharply after the start of the war with Iran. It hit 4.5% in May and reached 5% on Monday. Five years ago, CNN noted, the 10-year traded at just 1.3%. Luis Alvarado, co-head of global fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, told CNN the firm has been telling clients to expect "normal for longer," meaning the forces pushing yields higher are likely to persist rather than fade quickly.

Bottom Line

The 10-year Treasury yield's brief run to 5% takes the benchmark back to a level it has otherwise not held since 2007, apart from a short crossing in October 2023, and it arrives just ahead of a Fed decision where fed funds futures tracked by the CME Group's FedWatch tool imply a 90% chance of a quarter-point rate increase, according to CNBC. Whether the level proves a genuine turning point or merely a psychological marker is contested: Capital Economics' John Higgins said he is not convinced 5% is the "magic" number, even as he flagged risks to U.S. public finances and equities. For now, the practical effects are visible in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.76%, its highest in more than a year according to CNN, even as the S&P 500 has held a double-digit gain for the year.

Anthropic Tells Investors It Expects Second Straight Profitable Quarter as It Picks Nasdaq for IPO

Traders Agency Team — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 15:14:44 GMT

Anthropic has told a small group of shareholders that it expects to post positive adjusted operating income for a second consecutive quarter, according to the Financial Times, as the AI company moves toward an initial public offering on the Nasdaq that could value it at roughly $2 trillion. The figures were first reported by the FT, and CNBC separately reported, citing two sources familiar with the matter who asked not to be named because the details are confidential, that Anthropic has told some shareholders it will generate an operating profit for a second straight quarter. CNBC also confirmed that Anthropic has selected Nasdaq as its listing venue, a choice Business Insider reported first.

What Anthropic told investors

According to a summary of the FT's reporting carried by aiweekly.co, Anthropic's preliminary second-quarter revenue topped $11.5 billion, roughly 14 times the year-earlier level, alongside about $559 million in adjusted operating profit. TradingView reported the same 14-fold revenue surge and noted that Anthropic's annualized revenue reached $65 billion at the end of July, up from $9 billion at the end of 2025 — a level CNBC said is consistent with its own prior reporting of an approximately sevenfold year-over-year increase. Using the aiweekly.co figures, the move from Q1 revenue of $4.73 billion to preliminary Q2 revenue of $11.5 billion is a difference of $6.77 billion, or about 143% growth quarter over quarter ((11.5 − 4.73) / 4.73 × 100), by our calculation. Separately, the $9 billion end-2025 and $65 billion end-July annualized figures cited by TradingView differ by $56 billion, equivalent to roughly 7.2 times the earlier level (65 / 9), also by our calculation.

The figures shared with prospective investors are preliminary and were disclosed in private-market briefings rather than filed as audited results. Aiweekly.co and moneymorning.com both describe the numbers as private-market disclosures, with moneymorning.com cautioning readers to "treat it as a serious company briefing its own money, not audited gospel."

Adjusted operating income, not GAAP profit

The profitability claim rests specifically on adjusted operating income, a non-GAAP measure. TradingView reported that this metric "excludes costs including stock-based compensation," and moneymorning.com similarly noted that adjusted operating income "strips items like stock-based compensation." Anthropic's gross margins are described as above 80%, but both outlets reported, citing the FT, that the figure is calculated before revenue shared with distribution partners such as Amazon and before the cost of training new models is deducted — meaning the headline margin is measured before two cost items rather than after them, and the sources do not quantify either.

Nasdaq listing, valuation and timing

CNBC confirmed Anthropic has picked Nasdaq as its exchange after Business Insider's initial report. The company was valued at $965 billion earlier this year, confidentially filed its IPO prospectus in June, and has been widely expected by CNBC's sourcing to list as soon as next month, potentially at a valuation of $2 trillion or more. Aiweekly.co reported separately that Nvidia is in talks to anchor the IPO with an investment of up to $10 billion. For context on scale, CNBC noted SpaceX went public in June in the biggest IPO on record and is now valued at $2 trillion, the same figure now attached to Anthropic's IPO speculation.

Investors are reportedly forecasting further acceleration: TradingView reported that Anthropic could end 2026 with $120 billion in annualized revenue and approach $360 billion by the end of 2027. By our calculation from those two figures, that implied path is a $240 billion increase, or 200% growth ((360 − 120) / 120 × 100), though these are forward-looking investor expectations relayed by TradingView rather than confirmed company guidance, and neither figure has been independently verified.

Skepticism over the profitability framing

The disclosure drew immediate pushback. TradingView reported that short seller Jim Chanos responded to the FT report by writing simply "Cost-Adjusted EBITDA," mocking the extent of the adjustments used to present the business as profitable. Oracle's vice president of investor relations, Matt Asay, was more direct, writing that Anthropic "weren't and aren't" profitable and calling the framing a "made-up accounting fiction for profitability," while still conceding Anthropic is a strong business, per TradingView's reporting. Moneymorning.com added that public-market investors will likely demand GAAP revenue, the true cost of chips and power, disclosure of cash already committed to cloud and silicon partners, and clarity on customer concentration before crediting the margin claim, framing the open questions as "partner share, training costs, stock-based pay, and whether the green line holds once public GAAP and the next model cycle hit together."

How it compares with OpenAI

The contrast with Anthropic's chief rival is notable. CNBC reported that OpenAI has also confidentially filed an IPO prospectus but says it will not list before next year; CEO Sam Altman told Fortune that "right now would be an ill-advised moment to go public," and finance chief Sarah Friar reportedly told employees at an all-hands meeting that OpenAI "will be a public company in 2027." CNBC also reported that OpenAI told investors in February it is targeting roughly $600 billion in total compute spend by 2030, a figure that dwarfs the multibillion-dollar compute deals CNBC said Anthropic has signed this year with Nscale, AMD, SpaceX and Google. Neither Anthropic nor OpenAI commented for CNBC's story.

A complicating backdrop

CNBC reported that the profitability disclosure lands just as Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay urging the AI industry to slow the pace of model capability gains, proposing a three-step plan intended to temper development speed without "sacrificing commercial advantage or the United States' lead in AI," in his words as quoted by CNBC. TradingView framed this as forcing investors to weigh Anthropic's growth and infrastructure spending against the possibility that a slowdown could affect future revenue and costs, an interpretation worth noting as one of several factors investors appear to be weighing rather than a settled outcome.

Bottom Line

Anthropic's private disclosures to prospective investors point to a company scaling revenue at extraordinary speed and posting a second straight quarter of adjusted operating income, according to the Financial Times' reporting as relayed by CNBC, TradingView, aiweekly.co and moneymorning.com. But the profitability metric excludes stock-based compensation, the cited 80%-plus gross margin excludes partner revenue share and model-training costs, and the figures remain preliminary and unaudited. Whether that adjusted picture survives contact with GAAP accounting and public-market scrutiny after a Nasdaq listing, expected as soon as next month, is the question critics like Chanos and Asay have already raised, and one that will likely dominate diligence around any eventual $2 trillion valuation.

Bad News for the Market?

Ross Givens — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT

Hey, Ross here:

Welcome back to a new week.

And it’s a loaded one – with the Fed making its rate decision on Wednesday…

Amid a market that seems to be rapidly weakening.

Let’s take a look.

Chart of the Day

The futures market is currently pricing an 86.7% chance that the Fed raises rates on Wednesday.

And underneath the indexes, breadth has been deteriorating too.

This chart shows the percentage of large-, mid- and small-cap stocks trading above their 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages.

These numbers have taken a huge hit.

Only about a quarter of stocks in each group are still above their 20-day moving average.

Fewer than 40% of stocks are trading above the 50-day.

The long-term 200-day average is still holding up…

But for the short and medium-term averages, the weakness is broad.

Add in September’s lousy seasonal reputation and you’ve got a pretty easy bearish case.

Retail has certainly been feeling it…

With the bears outnumbering the bulls for 24 out of the 37 weeks this year – including most recently.

But there’s a counterintuitive truth about “bad news” that most traders don’t expect…

Something that causes them to miss out on opportunities.

Insight of the Day

Bad news only hurts when it surprises you.

Stocks don’t react to whether something is objectively “good” or “bad.”

They react to whether it comes in better or worse than what traders already expected.

If the market is pricing an 86.7% chance of a Fed hike, then a hike on Wednesday isn’t some bolt from the blue.

Traders have already had plenty of time to position for it.

Same thing with September weakness.

Everyone already knows that September has a rough historical record.

And the deterioration in breadth is already sitting there on the chart.

So from here, the bearish case has to keep getting worse to keep surprising people.

If the Fed does exactly what traders expect…

If breadth simply stops deteriorating…

Or if the economic data comes in a little better than feared…

That can be enough to quickly bring buyers back.

And there is a silver lining to weak breadth that most don’t realize…

It makes it easier to spot areas of strength.

When three-quarters of the market is below its 20-day average, the stocks that still refuse to break down start standing out.

They’re not getting carried by some broad market surge.

Somebody is continuing to buy them anyway.

And when that “somebody” is a large institution working a serious position into the stock…

That’s a huge opportunity to use their money for our gain.

I’ll share more about that tomorrow morning, so keep an eye out for that.

But for today…

Did you know that AI is about to become FREE – and THIS is where the money is flowing next?

Customer Story of the Day

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Really enjoying his live sessions – a lot of information to process being new enough to the game.

But I’m enjoying the teaching style as he breaks things down well and says it how it is – no fluff no messing about.

This man knows his onions recommend 10/10”

Ross Givens
Editor, Stock Surge Daily

Baldwin Group to Be Taken Private by Michael Dell's DFO Management and Sequence Holdings in $7.7 Billion Cash Deal

Traders Agency Team — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 13:41:40 GMT

The Baldwin Group has agreed to be acquired by Sequence Holdings and DFO Management, the family office of Michael Dell, in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $7.7 billion, with shareholders receiving $32.50 per share, according to Seeking Alpha Market News. Yahoo Finance, publishing ahead of the formal announcement, reported that DFO Management was leading the transaction alongside Sequence Holdings and that the two firms were in advanced talks with Baldwin over a deal expected to value the insurance brokerage at that same $32.50-a-share price. The two outlets measure the premium implied by that price against different prior trading reference points.

Deal Terms and Reported Premium

The $32.50-a-share offer compared with Baldwin's closing price the Friday before the deal was reported, as cited by Yahoo Finance.

Seeking Alpha reported that Baldwin agreed to be acquired by Sequence Holdings and DFO Management in an all-cash deal valued at roughly $7.7 billion, with shareholders set to receive $32.50 per share, which the outlet characterized as an approximately 88% premium to Baldwin's unaffected closing price on June 17, 2026, according to Seeking Alpha Market News.

Yahoo Finance, reporting ahead of the formal announcement and citing Reuters and the Financial Times, described DFO Management as leading the transaction alongside Sequence Holdings, in advanced talks with Baldwin over a deal expected to value the company at $32.50 per share. That report placed the proposed price against a different reference point, noting it represented a premium of roughly 10% over Baldwin's closing price of $29.65 the preceding Friday, according to Yahoo Finance.

Based on the exact figures in that Yahoo Finance report, the $32.50 offer exceeds the $29.65 Friday close by $2.85, or about 9.6% (calculated as (32.50 − 29.65) ÷ 29.65 × 100). This is our calculation using the values as reported, and it is presented for arithmetic transparency rather than as an independent premium estimate; Yahoo Finance's own published figure for that comparison was approximately 10%. The two outlets' premium figures differ because they measure the offer against different baseline dates, one tied to an unaffected June 17 close cited by Seeking Alpha and the other to the more recent Friday close cited by Yahoo Finance.

The Buyer Consortium

Michael Dell, whose DFO Management family office holds roughly a 40% stake in Dell Technologies, is leading the buyer group alongside Sequence Holdings.

DFO Management is Michael Dell's private investment firm. Dell holds roughly a 40% stake in Dell Technologies and has significant holdings in DFO Management, according to Yahoo Finance. That report also noted that Dell surpassed Jeff Bezos in Forbes' billionaire rankings earlier this month to reach third place for the first time, as Dell Technologies stock closed at a record high; Dell Technologies shares have risen 327% year to date, which Yahoo Finance attributed to demand for artificial intelligence hardware.

Sequence Holdings, the other named buyer, counts 8VC, Conviction and Lux Capital among its backers and focuses on acquiring mature service-sector businesses and modernizing their operations through proprietary software, according to Reuters as cited by Yahoo Finance.

Neither DFO Management, Baldwin Insurance Group nor Sequence Holdings responded to requests for comment after business hours when talks were first reported, Yahoo Finance said.

Baldwin's Business and Recent Financial Performance

Baldwin, headquartered in Tampa, Florida, provides risk management, insurance advisory and technology-driven underwriting services to businesses and individuals, per Yahoo Finance. In its second-quarter 2026 earnings report, the company posted total revenue of $492.9 million, up 30% from the same period a year earlier, and adjusted diluted earnings per share of 48 cents, up 14% year over year. The 30% revenue growth rate outpaced the 14% earnings-per-share growth rate by 16 percentage points, a gap of roughly 114% in relative terms (calculated as (30 − 14) ÷ 14 × 100); this comparison is our calculation based on the reported figures and does not itself indicate why the two growth rates diverged.

What Remains Unclear

The available reporting confirms the headline price, the identity of the named buyers, and the general framing of the transaction as a take-private deal, but it does not specify the financing structure, any go-shop provision, a termination or break fee, whether any existing Baldwin insider or founder stake would roll over into the private company, or a target closing date and shareholder vote schedule. Yahoo Finance's pre-announcement report said an announcement was expected as soon as the Monday following publication, citing Reuters, which in turn cited the Financial Times. The evidence reviewed does not include confirmed regulatory approval requirements, insurance-department sign-offs, or a stated timetable for closing.

Bottom Line

Baldwin Group shareholders have been offered $32.50 per share in cash by a buyer group anchored by Michael Dell's DFO Management and Sequence Holdings, in a deal reported at approximately $7.7 billion. Reporting varies on the size of the premium depending on the reference date used, with Seeking Alpha citing an 88% premium to Baldwin's unaffected June 17, 2026 close and Yahoo Finance citing a roughly 10% premium to the prior Friday's $29.65 close. Details on financing, deal-protection terms, regulatory approvals and a closing timeline were not included in the reporting reviewed and would need to be confirmed as further disclosures become available.

AI and Chip Stocks Slide After Amodei Urges Slower Frontier AI Development, With Altman and Musk Backing Him

Traders Agency Team — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 12:19:00 GMT

Shares of chipmakers and AI infrastructure companies fell sharply in Monday premarket trading after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published a weekend essay urging the industry to slow the pace of frontier AI capability gains, a call that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk publicly backed. The selloff hit semiconductor names, data-center suppliers and cloud infrastructure stocks in the United States, Asia and Europe, though hyperscalers were comparatively resilient, and analysts were divided on whether the proposal implies any actual pullback in AI spending.

The essay that moved markets

Dario Amodei's Saturday essay argued that AI safety oversight needs time to catch up with capability gains — and markets reacted Monday.

Amodei's roughly 3,800-word essay, published Saturday, argued that safety and oversight need time to keep pace with AI capability gains, writing: "We must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models," while adding that "progress will still seem fast," according to CNBC and Yahoo Finance. Amodei framed the urgency around a shift he dated to roughly this summer, when, he said, "AI has been advancing drastically faster, driven primarily by AI's growing ability to build the next generation of AI," per CNBC.

He proposed a three-part plan he said could avoid "sacrificing commercial advantage or the United States' lead in AI": giving external evaluators "employee-like access" inside frontier labs (a step he said Anthropic was adopting immediately), establishing common safety standards across frontier AI companies, and attempting to coordinate limits on unchecked AI progress globally, according to CNBC's reporting on the essay.

What Altman and Musk endorsed, and where they drew lines

Sam Altman and Elon Musk both endorsed Amodei's call to slow AI development, while Altman stressed pacing 'does not mean stopping.'

Altman said in a Saturday X post that he agreed AI companies should "pace the frontier" and committed OpenAI to matching Anthropic's move on independent evaluators, calling it "a great idea," per CNBC. He was explicit, however, that the commitment was not open-ended: in a Monday post he wrote that "pacing" does "not mean 'stopping,'" adding that "progress has been rapid and will continue to be. But it should be slower than it otherwise could be; interventions like safety cases and monitoring have significant costs."

Altman also said, in a post just after midnight Monday, that OpenAI would "welcome a federal framework that sets consistent safety requirements for frontier AI" and that "no amount of American competitive pressure should justify recklessness," while noting that international coordination would require government involvement, per CNBC. He described two failure modes he wants avoided: losing "control of the future to AI," and excessive concentration of power in a single person, company or country.

Musk's endorsement was brief. He posted on X: "Dario is right," according to CNBC, aligning himself with Amodei's call without elaborating on specific mechanisms.

The Monday selloff, by the numbers

U.S. premarket declines in AI-linked and semiconductor names on Monday, as reported by Yahoo Finance.

U.S. premarket moves were steep and, in some cases, reported differently depending on when the snapshot was taken. One Yahoo Finance tally showed Marvell and SK Hynix each down 7%, CoreWeave, SanDisk, Intel and AMD off 6%, Micron and Super Micro down 5%, and Nvidia and Broadcom down 3%. A separate Yahoo Finance report put Nvidia down 2%, Broadcom down 3%, Intel down 5% and Marvell down 7%. CNBC separately reported Micron down around 5%, Intel down nearly 6% and Nvidia nearly 3% lower. Hyperscalers Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet were all only slightly lower, per CNBC.

Index futures pointed to a tech-led decline: Nasdaq-100 futures were down 1.5%, S&P 500 futures off 0.6% and Dow futures down 114 points, or 0.2%, according to Yahoo Finance.

Overseas, the damage was concentrated in chip and data-center names. In Asia, SK Hynix closed down more than 6% and Samsung Electronics more than 4%, while SoftBank, one of the largest investors in OpenAI, fell 10% in Japan, per CNBC. In Europe, ASML fell more than 5%, Nokia around 8% and Infineon more than 7%, with data-center suppliers Siemens Energy and Schneider Electric also lower, CNBC reported.

How analysts are framing the capex and earnings risk

Sell-side reaction so far treats the essay as a governance and safety framework rather than a spending pullback. Bernstein analyst Madison Rezaei wrote, per Yahoo Finance, that the proposal centers on "independent reviewers, coordination on safety standards, and international cooperation," adding: "At this point, it's not a call for a lowering of capex or stopping model training. However, many investors have started to question what happens if training slows." Rezaei flagged CoreWeave as the name most exposed in her coverage, estimating that 25% of its existing active U.S. power and roughly 74% of its contracted power sit in Tier 3 and Tier 4 markets; she said take-or-pay backlog contracts limit near-term risk, but a pullback in demand for contracted, not-yet-sold rural power is possible if training development slows.

Ben Barringer, global head of technology research at Quilter Cheviot, argued to CNBC that company revenues are unlikely to be hit because inference, not training, remains the industry's supply bottleneck: "Even if training and rollout is slowed, inference is still the area that the industry is short in supply. Demand still far outstrips supply, so even if things are to slow a little, company revenues are unlikely to be impacted." By contrast, Zoe Gillespie, senior director at RBC Brewin Dolphin, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" that the equity rally has rested on AI growth and productivity gains, warning: "so if we do see that start to derail, then it could have an impact on equity performance going forward." CNBC also reported that investors are broadly concerned any slowdown in the pace of AI development could ripple from chip purchases to computing-power purchases, where hundreds of billions of dollars of capital expenditure is headed.

Context: safety alarm, political pushback and IPO timing

Amodei called for a global 'speed limit' on AI progress but said getting rival nations to follow would be very difficult.

The essay landed amid an escalating internal debate over AI risk. Last week, Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon, who had previously worked at OpenAI, resigned, saying Anthropic and OpenAI are "gambling with our lives," per CNBC. Anthropic safety researcher Evan Hubinger responded that he believes there is a greater than 10% chance AI will "kill all humans" within the next decade, according to CNBC.

Amodei, speaking on CBS News' "Sunday Morning," called the biggest unresolved problem the risk that adversarial nations would not follow any agreed limits, saying a global "speed limit" on AI progress "is going to be very difficult" and "I don't know if it's possible, but we should try," per CNBC. President Donald Trump dismissed the call on Sunday, saying a slowdown was unnecessary and would risk America's AI lead over China, CNBC reported. China's response was pointed: the state-run Global Times wrote Monday that "Amodei's proposals seek to portray China's legitimate development in AI as a threat," while China's Foreign Ministry called the CEOs' comments "fear mongering," per CNBC.

The safety pivot also comes as Anthropic and OpenAI prepare for what CNBC described as expected historic IPOs. Altman ruled out an OpenAI listing in 2026 in a Fortune interview published Saturday, saying it would be "ill-advised," a detail also noted by Yahoo Finance.

Monday's tape was not driven by AI headlines alone. Yahoo Finance reported that WTI crude futures rose 3% to trade above $103 a barrel, with Brent above $108, after Saudi Arabia shut a pipeline that had been a critical conduit for crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz region, while the Federal Reserve opens its September policy meeting this week with fed funds futures assigning about an 86% probability to a rate increase.

Bottom line

Monday's selloff reflects a market reassessing risk around the AI buildout, triggered by a safety proposal that Altman says is about pacing rather than stopping development and that Bernstein's Rezaei says is "not a call for a lowering of capex or stopping model training." Rezaei and Quilter Cheviot's Barringer both suggest the near-term earnings and capex impact looks limited, given inference demand and take-or-pay backlog structures, while RBC Brewin Dolphin's Gillespie points to the deeper risk: an equity rally built on AI growth and productivity expectations could see equity performance affected if that narrative derails. With Amodei himself saying a global "speed limit" on AI progress "is going to be very difficult," and Washington and Beijing both pushing back on the substance, whether "pacing the frontier" changes actual lab behavior remains the open question for investors.

airBaltic Files Chapter 11 With €350 Million DIP Commitment, Targets June 2027 Exit

Traders Agency Team — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 07:58:02 GMT

airBaltic has begun a US Chapter 11 restructuring process backed by a binding commitment for €350 million in new debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing, with the Latvian carrier targeting completion of the case by roughly June 2027, according to Dienas Bizness. The airline says the filing is designed to reduce its long-term debt burden while flights, ticket sales and partner operations continue without interruption.

The Chapter 11 filing and DIP financing

Dienas Bizness reports that Strategic Value Partners acted as arranger of the €350 million DIP facility, with Barclays, Hayfin Capital Management, Morgan Stanley and Oaktree Capital Management providing the financing as additional lenders. The company said it would turn to a US court in the coming days to obtain the approval customary in such cases to use the financing. The Dienas Bizness report does not disclose DIP pricing, milestones, any roll-up structure or a first-day hearing date.

The company said it plans to complete the Chapter 11 process by approximately June 2027, subject to required US court approvals and other conditions, per Dienas Bizness.

Management, oversight and creditor framework

airBaltic's existing management board continues to run the company day to day, with the supervisory council maintaining oversight during the case, Dienas Bizness reported. Supervisory council chairman Andrejs Martinovs said the court-supervised process, which shields the airline from creditor claims while it proceeds, "provides a clear framework and deadlines to reach agreement with creditors, including aircraft lessors and other involved parties," according to the outlet. Martinovs added that the process will demand "strict financial discipline" and that airBaltic must satisfy "several material conditions," with the stated goal of ending the case as "a financially stronger airBaltic" carrying "a substantially reduced debt burden that the company can service long term."

President and CEO Erno Hildén said the process is not noticeable to passengers, telling Dienas Bizness that the airline continues flying, selling tickets and planning its future schedule "with the same attention to safety and operational reliability," while implementing changes set out in its revised business plan. airBaltic also pointed to precedent, noting that SAS, United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, GOL and American Airlines used the same US Chapter 11 mechanism while continuing to fly, and argued that because its own financing, creditors and aircraft lease agreements are international, a single US-supervised framework is appropriate, per the Dienas Bizness report.

What preceded the filing

Before the Chapter 11 filing, airBaltic met lessors, creditors and other stakeholders in Dublin to address rising leverage and falling liquidity.

The Chapter 11 filing follows weeks of restructuring activity. In early September, airBaltic had agreed terms for up to €257 million in interim financing from a mix of existing bondholders and third-party finance providers through newly issued bonds maturing on 26 February 2027, according to Aviator.aero. Under that proposed structure, €180 million would have become available shortly after bondholder approval, with a further €77 million accessible once additional conditions were met; Aviator.aero reported a bondholder meeting on the transaction was scheduled for September 11. That interim financing did not require a new financial contribution from the Latvian government, though Latvia could participate proportionally to its existing position as an airBaltic bondholder under recently adopted legislation, the outlet said.

Earlier still, Ishka Airfinance reported that airBaltic met lessors, creditors and other stakeholders in Dublin to help repair its financial position, citing people familiar with the matter, as fleet expansion, limited financial flexibility and rising leasing and debt-service costs weighed on liquidity and leverage even while the carrier maintained what Ishka described as a respectable EBITDAR margin at the operational level. Ishka Airfinance's Airline Intelligence data, cited in that report, put leverage at almost eight times, with fixed charge cover remaining below 1x and liquidity falling from 6.6% of revenues to 2%. The same report noted that any restructuring agreement carries implications for a broad group of aircraft lessors, since Ishka's Fleet Intelligence data showed airBaltic operating 57 Airbus A220-300s, the backbone of its leased fleet.

Operations, fleet plan and wet-lease flying

airBaltic's scheduled wet-lease flying for Lufthansa Group fell from over 7,300 block hours in May 2026 to just over 1,000 in November 2026, reflecting the airline's shift toward a more balanced summer-winter schedule.

airBaltic has said flight operations, ticket sales and partner cooperation are unaffected by the Chapter 11 process, and that it will keep meeting obligations to suppliers and service providers in the ordinary course, per Dienas Bizness. Separately, under a revised business plan reported by Cranky Flier, the airline has abandoned earlier ambitions of a 100-aircraft fleet and is instead shrinking from 54 aircraft to 36 by the end of the year, only gradually climbing back to 40 by 2031.

airBaltic has said flight operations, ticket sales and partner cooperation are unaffected by the Chapter 11 process, and that it will keep meeting obligations to suppliers and service providers in the ordinary course of business, per Dienas Bizness. Separately, under a revised business plan reported by Cranky Flier, the airline has abandoned earlier ambitions of a 100-aircraft fleet and is instead shrinking from 54 aircraft to 36 by the end of the year, only gradually climbing back to 40 by 2031.

Cranky Flier also reported that wet-lease flying for other carriers had grown into a large share of airBaltic's summer operation, with the airline's own flying accounting for only about 55% of total block hours this past summer and most of the remainder flown for Lufthansa Group. According to data cited in that report, airBaltic was scheduled to fly more than 7,300 block hours for Lufthansa this past May, falling to just over 1,000 block hours this coming November — a decline of 6,300 block hours (7,300 − 1,000); put the other way, the May total was roughly 630% higher than the November total ((7,300 − 1,000) ÷ 1,000 × 100), by our calculation from those two reported figures. The airline's stated plan is to scale back contract flying for other carriers toward a more balanced summer-winter mix while retaining "selected point-to-point services" and refocusing on its Riga base, Cranky Flier reported. airBaltic has attributed its broader strategic reset to moderating demand and revenue growth, geopolitical developments in Ukraine and the Middle East that have raised uncertainty and operating costs, and prolonged Pratt & Whitney engine availability constraints limiting fleet deployment, according to the same report.

Bottom Line

airBaltic has moved from months of lessor and bondholder negotiations, including a proposed €257 million interim financing package, into a formal Chapter 11 case anchored by a €350 million DIP commitment, with management framing the goal as emerging by roughly mid-2027 with a lighter debt load, according to Dienas Bizness. The company says day-to-day flying, ticket sales and supplier relationships continue unaffected, but the process still requires US court approval to draw on the DIP financing and will hinge on negotiations with a wide creditor group that includes lessors exposed to the 57 A220-300s that Ishka Airfinance's fleet data show airBaltic operates.

IRGC Claims Downing of U.S. MQ-1 Drone Over Strait of Hormuz; No U.S. Confirmation Reported as Oil Tops $100

Traders Agency Team — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 07:35:12 GMT

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Monday that its air defenses intercepted and destroyed an American MQ-1 drone over the Strait of Hormuz, according to CNBC and Mehr News Agency. No U.S. military or government confirmation of an aircraft loss was reported in either outlet's coverage, and neither outlet reported independent verification of the claim.

What the IRGC Said

Iran's IRGC said its air defenses intercepted and destroyed an MQ-1-type drone over the strait; no U.S. confirmation has been reported.

The IRGC's public relations office said a "new advanced aerospace defence system" intercepted and destroyed an advanced MQ-1 drone over the strait "moments" before the announcement, according to Mehr News Agency. The IRGC statement, as relayed by both outlets, did not disclose the drone's mission, point of origin, or how the interception was carried out. CNBC reported the IRGC gave no further details on the drone's mission, and Mehr News Agency likewise reported that no additional information on the aircraft's origin was immediately provided.

The MQ-1 is manufactured by U.S. defense contractor General Atomics and has historically been flown primarily by the U.S. Air Force and the CIA, according to CNBC. Absent an official U.S. statement, it is not possible to independently verify whether a drone was lost, what type it was, or what mission it may have been flying.

Part of a Longer Pattern

Both outlets placed Monday's claim in the context of a broader campaign. CNBC reported that the incident followed a series of Iranian operations against U.S. unmanned naval systems in the Gulf, while Mehr News Agency described the interception as following "a series of Iranian operations against U.S. unmanned aircraft in and around the strategic waterway." CNBC noted the war between Iran and the United States, now in its seventh month by its reporting, has shown few signs of abating, with diplomacy over the strait stalled.

Iran has a history of publicizing downed American drones. CNBC noted that Iran's IRGC previously shot down a U.S. Global Hawk over the Strait of Hormuz in June 2019 and has displayed an American Reaper MQ-1 drone at the IRGC's National Aerospace Park in Tehran.

Stalled Diplomacy in Oman

The claimed shootdown landed as regional diplomacy over Hormuz shipping was already faltering. Officials from Iran and Gulf nations had been expected to meet Monday to sign an agreement establishing an Iran-Oman shipping route through the strait, though CNBC reported no direct talks between the U.S. and Iran were ongoing. A separate meeting in Oman between Gulf countries and Iran to discuss broader Hormuz agreements was postponed, with Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi citing the need for "consensus" in a post on X on Sunday, according to CNBC.

CNBC also reported that a June accord between Washington and Tehran had already faltered over disagreements about the waterway, and that a recent offensive by Yemen's Houthi rebels has given the Tehran-allied group leverage over a second critical chokepoint, the Bab el-Mandeb strait.

Oil Prices and the Wider Blockade

WTI and Brent crude benchmarks reported Monday, both up on the day, after Saudi Arabia closed a pipeline damaged by Iraqi drones. (Source: CNBC)

CNBC reported that the Strait of Hormuz has been subject to an Iranian and later a U.S. naval blockade since the war broke out in February, a dynamic it said has kept global energy prices elevated. Ships deemed non-compliant are regularly targeted by Iranian strikes, CNBC reported, while the U.S. periodically bombs the Iranian coastline to contest control of the strait.

Oil prices moved past $100 a barrel for the first time since May and rose further Monday, CNBC reported, after Saudi Arabia closed a key East-West energy pipeline that was damaged by Iraqi drones. According to CNBC's reported figures, West Texas Intermediate futures were up 2.3% to $102.39 a barrel, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded 2.4% higher at $107.11 a barrel.

Two straightforward calculations on CNBC's reported figures: Brent's $107.11 sat $4.72 above WTI's $102.39 (107.11 minus 102.39), a gap equal to about 4.4% of the Brent price ((102.39 - 107.11) / 107.11 x 100). Separately, the two benchmarks' reported session gains differed by 0.1 percentage point (2.4% minus 2.3%). Both are arithmetic on the reported numbers and should not be read as a forecast of where either benchmark or the spread will settle.

Trump's Comments on the Conflict

Speaking at a golf event in Ireland, Trump said the U.S. could stay in the Iran conflict and "keep the oil like Venezuela."

CNBC reported that President Donald Trump, speaking Sunday at the Irish Open golf championship in Ireland, said the U.S. could continue its campaign against Iran and take control of its oil, stating: "We'll ultimately get out (of the war), unless we decide to stay and keep the oil like Venezuela." Trump was referencing an August agreement in which, according to CNBC, Venezuela ceded majority U.S. control of more than 65 billion barrels of oil reserves in exchange for $209 billion to its state treasury, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying the deal would also bring close to $100 billion in private investment to the Venezuelan economy.

Trump said he expects the seven-month Iran war to end this year, possibly after the November midterm elections, and said gasoline prices would "drop like a rock" once it does, CNBC reported. He also said Tehran has been "calling constantly" for peace talks, a claim CNBC noted Iran has previously dismissed, adding that he would only agree to the "right deal."

Bottom Line

Iran's IRGC has publicly claimed it destroyed a U.S. MQ-1 drone over the Strait of Hormuz, but no U.S. military or government confirmation of an aircraft loss has been reported, and the drone's mission remains undisclosed. The claim arrived alongside a postponed Oman meeting on Hormuz shipping agreements and a jump in oil benchmarks that CNBC tied to a separate Saudi pipeline closure, underscoring how an unverified military claim and confirmed market moves are circulating together in an unresolved regional conflict.

GE HealthCare in Advanced Talks to Buy PET Radiopharmaceutical Maker Sofie Biosciences for About $1 Billion, FT Reports

Traders Agency Team — Sun, 13 Sep 2026 16:17:36 GMT

GE HealthCare Technologies is in advanced talks to acquire Sofie Biosciences, a developer of radiopharmaceuticals used in PET cancer scans, for roughly $1 billion, the Financial Times reported on Sunday, citing people familiar with the matter. Neither company has confirmed the report, and the talks could still change or collapse before any deal is signed.

What Has Been Reported

According to the Financial Times report, cited by Wixx.com and TradingView/Seeking Alpha, GE HealthCare is in advanced discussions to buy Sofie for about $1 billion. A transaction could be announced as soon as this coming week, though the reporting notes negotiations may still shift or fall apart entirely.

Reuters said it could not immediately verify the FT report, according to the Wixx.com account of the wire's coverage. GE HealthCare declined to comment, and Sofie Biosciences could not be immediately reached for comment outside regular business hours, per the same reporting. Seeking Alpha's write-up added that GE HealthCare, Sofie, and private equity investor Trilantic all either declined or did not respond to requests for comment, while FierceBiotech similarly noted that neither company had commented on the report as of its publication.

What Sofie Biosciences Does

Sofie produces short-lived radioactive tracers used to prepare patients for PET cancer scans.

Figures are drawn from FT-sourced reporting relayed by Seeking Alpha and remain unconfirmed by either company.

Per the Seeking Alpha account of the FT reporting, Sofie develops radiopharmaceuticals and operates a network that produces the short-lived radioactive materials used in positron emission tomography, or PET, scans. Its pipeline includes diagnostic agents designed to detect certain gastroesophageal and pancreatic cancers, according to the same report.

FierceBiotech describes Sofie as a 20-year-old medtech company based in Dulles, Virginia, that works on specialized chemicals used in cancer-scanning machines. The reporting does not disclose Sofie's revenue figures.

On ownership, Seeking Alpha's account states that Sofie remains primarily owned by its founders and executives, with private equity firm Trilantic having acquired a 25.8% interest in 2024 in a transaction that valued the company at as much as $550 million. On those reported figures, a sale at about $1 billion would mark a substantial step up: using the operands in the reporting, ($1,000 million − $550 million) ÷ $550 million works out to an increase of roughly 82%. Because the $550 million figure is described as an upper bound on the 2024 valuation, the implied step-up could be larger. Both valuation figures trace back to people familiar with the matter as relayed by the FT-sourced reporting, and neither company has confirmed them.

Strategic Rationale, as Framed by Reporting

Analysts cited in the reporting suggest pairing scanners with diagnostic agents could capture more revenue per scan, though this is interpretation, not confirmed strategy.

The Wixx.com and TradingView accounts both note that acquiring Sofie would bolster GE HealthCare's pharmaceutical diagnostics division, which supplies the agents and chemicals administered to patients before imaging procedures. Seeking Alpha's analysis frames this as an opportunity for GE HealthCare to capture more revenue per scan by selling both imaging equipment and the diagnostic agents used with it. That same analysis suggests radiopharmaceuticals may offer more recurring revenue than large scanners, which hospitals purchase far less frequently. This is characterized in the reporting as analytical interpretation rather than a confirmed company strategy.

FierceBiotech notes that GE HealthCare is currently one of the major manufacturers of medical imaging equipment, including MRI, CT and PET scanners, providing the underlying installed base into which Sofie's radiopharmaceutical products could be sold.

Context: GE HealthCare's Recent Corporate Moves

The reporting places the potential Sofie deal against a backdrop of recent structural change at GE HealthCare. The Wixx.com account describes the deal as GE HealthCare's second major acquisition since it broke away as part of General Electric's three-way split in 2024, while the Seeking Alpha account instead dates the company's separation from General Electric to January 2023. The two accounts differ on this point, and neither has been independently reconciled here.

Seeking Alpha's reporting also notes that GE HealthCare shares have gained about 12% since their first day of trading, trailing the much stronger performances of former GE siblings GE Vernova and GE Aerospace. Separately, the same report says activist investor Trian Fund Management, which helped press for GE's breakup, has increased its GE HealthCare position to nearly $200 million — a figure also relayed in a social media post citing the Financial Times.

FierceBiotech's account adds two other data points on GE HealthCare's recent operational history. In July, the company said it was performing a comprehensive strategic review of its Patient Care Solutions business amid what it described as ongoing operational fulfillment issues and supply chain constraints. In April, GE HealthCare cut its profit outlook and restructured, merging its former imaging and ultrasound units into a new Advanced Imaging Solutions segment led by Phil Rackliffe, which the company said was intended to create a more focused and connected end-to-end imaging ecosystem.

Open Questions Flagged by Analysts

Seeking Alpha's analysis identifies two central questions for investors: whether GE HealthCare is paying a reasonable price for Sofie, and how quickly Sofie can convert its development pipeline into commercially meaningful sales. Those questions remain unanswered pending any official confirmation of a transaction, its final terms, or a closing timeline, none of which have been disclosed by either company as of this reporting.

One interpretive point, tied to the figures above rather than a reported fact: a step-up of the size implied by the reporting would raise the bar for how quickly Sofie's diagnostic pipeline must translate into revenue. Seeking Alpha's account frames it in similar terms, saying a sale near $1 billion "would put pressure on GE HealthCare to deliver strong growth from the business," without offering a specific forecast.

Bottom Line

As of this reporting, the Sofie Biosciences transaction remains an unconfirmed, in-progress negotiation described by the Financial Times and relayed by several other outlets, with GE HealthCare declining to comment and Sofie unreachable for comment. Investors should treat the roughly $1 billion figure, the potential announcement timing, and the strategic rationale as attributed reporting rather than confirmed fact until either company issues an official statement.

Trump Calls on Zelenskyy to Halt Strikes on Russian Diesel Sites, Citing Fuel Shortages

Traders Agency Team — Sun, 13 Sep 2026 15:54:48 GMT

President Donald Trump has called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to stop striking Russian diesel infrastructure, arguing the campaign is worsening fuel shortages, according to an Associated Press report carried by Seeking Alpha Market News on Sunday, September 13, 2026. The comment marks a notable turn from Trump's own description of the same strike campaign about two months earlier, in July, as an escalation that could hasten an end to the war.

What Trump Said

Reported fuel shortages inside Russia, including gas-station patrols and emergency imports, form the backdrop to Trump's request that Ukraine stop striking diesel infrastructure.

The quote as reported by Seeking Alpha is truncated: Trump is quoted saying, "Mr. Zelensky has to do one thing. He has to stop knocking out" - with the sentence cutting off before the direct object is specified, and no exact setting, time, or full remarks included in the available reporting. The Associated Press report, relayed by Seeking Alpha, frames the ask around fuel shortages, tying Trump's message directly to concerns about diesel supply rather than the broader war effort.

There is no indication in the available reporting that the White House or National Security Council has issued formal guidance to Kyiv following the remark, and no confirmation of whether Zelenskyy's office or the Ukrainian General Staff has responded publicly.

A Shift From Earlier Praise

The request to halt strikes contrasts with Trump's own characterization of the same campaign roughly two months earlier. Speaking alongside Zelenskyy on the sidelines of a NATO summit on July 8, 2026 — a joint press conference LIGA.net placed in Ankara, while UNN, citing Reuters, described it as a conversation with journalists on the summit's sidelines — Trump said of Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil refineries: "This is an escalation that could lead to the end (of the war. – Ed.)." Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking at the same appearance, offered a similar framing, saying: "We hope this will create space for negotiations to end the war. It is an escalation, but at the same time, such an escalation could help bring it to a close."

Taken together, the two sets of remarks show the U.S. position moving from encouragement of the strikes as a potential pressure tactic on Moscow to a public request that Kyiv stand down on this specific target set, at least as far as diesel facilities are concerned. The supplied reporting does not explain what changed in the interim beyond Trump's stated concern over fuel shortages, so readers should treat the shift as an observed change in tone rather than a fully explained policy reversal.

The Strike Campaign's Scale and Effects

A Financial Times analysis cited by LIGA.net counted at least 194 Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries since the start of 2026 — eleven times the pace of the year before.

The scale of the campaign Trump is now asking Ukraine to curb has been substantial. A Financial Times analysis cited by LIGA.net found Ukraine has attacked Russian oil refineries at least 194 times since the start of 2026, eleven times more often than over the same period the prior year. The intensified strikes followed a period in which, according to an AP analysis carried by Newsday, the United States eased sanctions on Russian oil during the Iran war, prompting Kyiv to ramp up attacks on oil infrastructure specifically to deny the Kremlin export revenue and impose shortages on Russian civilians.

Those shortages have shown up in visible ways inside Russia. Newsday's AP-sourced reporting said the strikes caused a summer fuel crisis, and LIGA.net reported that on June 28 authorities in Russia's Irkutsk region ordered police and the National Guard to patrol gas stations because of fuel shortages. By July 1, Russia had begun importing gasoline by sea from India, according to the same LIGA.net report.

The campaign has not been without cost on both sides. Newsday's AP-sourced account noted that a strike Ukraine said hit an oil refinery killed 13 people, according to local officials, on the Monday referenced in that report. Russia has also struck Ukraine's own energy grid: in separate reporting, Scripps News said the Ukrainian government reported an overnight assault involving more than 300 attack drones and 37 missiles, many of them ballistic, focused heavily on energy infrastructure, with warnings of resulting blackouts. The available reporting does not date that assault relative to the 2026 refinery strikes or establish it as a direct response to them.

Independent analysts cited in the Newsday report offered a mixed assessment of the strikes' military logic. Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the London-based RUSI think tank, said Ukraine's attacks are aimed at undermining any Russian assumption that it can simply absorb the pressure and "let this roll," but he also noted the approach is expensive and inefficient, since only 5% to 9% of what Ukraine fires gets past Russian air defenses.

What Remains Unconfirmed

Several elements of this story are not yet resolved in the available reporting. There is no confirmation of a formal Kyiv response to Trump's request, no indication of whether refinery strikes have actually paused since the comments were reported, and no data in the available sources on current Russian refining capacity taken offline or its share of global distillate exports. Likewise, there is no reported market reaction in diesel or gasoil futures, and no reporting in the available sources linking this request to any change in U.S. sanctions or tariff policy on buyers of Russian energy. Readers should treat any assumption connecting Trump's comments to a broader softening on Russian energy sanctions as speculative until confirmed by further reporting.

Bottom Line

Trump's public appeal for Zelenskyy to stop hitting Russian diesel infrastructure, as reported by the Associated Press via Seeking Alpha, represents a shift in tone from his July 8, 2026 remarks calling the same campaign a potentially war-ending escalation. The underlying strike campaign has been large by any measure, with at least 194 refinery attacks tallied by a Financial Times analysis cited by LIGA.net since the start of 2026 and documented fuel shortages inside Russia. What is not yet known is whether Kyiv will comply, whether the strikes have actually stopped, and what this means for the broader sanctions and tariff track against Russian energy exports — questions that will require further confirmed reporting to answer.

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