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Has the Nasdaq Run “Too Far”?

Ross Givens
Ross GivensRoss Givens is a veteran trader with over 15 years of experi...
October 7, 2026|Updated October 8, 2026|4 min read
A rocket or arrow made of glowing circuit board patterns blasts upward through a stylized stock chart showing a steep upward trajectory, with the Nasdaq's characteristic tech-heavy composition represented by floating digital nodes and data streams. The background transitions from deep blue to bright gold, visually conveying unstoppable momentum and breakthrough energy. The overall composition should feel dynamic and forward-moving, immediately signaling "markets breaking higher" to anyone scroll

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Hey, Ross here:

The Nasdaq just broke out to another new high.

And remember – it was already up more than 20% through the end of Q3.

That’s a huge run.

Normally, this is where people start worrying the market has gone too far.

But the numbers say almost the opposite. Take a look.

Chart of the Day

Nautilus chart of Nasdaq 100 gains above 20% through Q3 and a table of subsequent returns.

Since 1996, there have only been 12 other times the Nasdaq gained at least 20% through the first three quarters.

And after those signals, the average return was:

  • +7.4% over the next two months…
  • +14.1% through year-end…
  • And +21.3% over the following six months.

So a 20% gain through Q3 has historically been a sign of powerful momentum.

And right now, that momentum has a very clear leader.

S&P 500 Technology versus the S&P 500 excluding Technology, with rolling two-month correlation.

Technology keeps pushing higher.

The rest of the S&P 500 is moving the other way.

The gap has gotten extreme.

So if I’m looking for the next stocks with a shot at a big breakout…

Technology is still the first place I want to hunt.

But there’s another piece of this setup I like.

Large-cap and small-cap equity positioning, with current percentiles of 85% and 43%.

Investors are already heavily loaded into large caps.

Large-cap positioning sits around the 85th percentile.

Further down the market-cap ladder, positioning is much lighter – around the 43rd percentile for small caps.

That leaves a very different amount of room for new money to come in.

And that brings me to today’s Insight.

Insight of the Day

Follow the strongest trend – then look for stocks with the most room to run.

Technology is leading.

So I want to stay with Technology.

But I’m not automatically chasing the biggest stock in the sector.

Look at Nvidia.

It just hit roughly $6 trillion in market value.

For Nvidia to gain another 60% from here…

It would have to become almost a $10 trillion company.

Think about how much money that takes.

Nearly $4 trillion of additional market value just to produce a 60% gain.

A company that’s a fraction of Nvidia’s size doesn’t need anything close to that amount of buying pressure to make the same percentage move.

That’s why although you want to start with the strongest trend…

You want to then look inside that trend for stocks that still have plenty of room to run.

But size alone isn’t enough.

I want to see buyers take control.

I want price to clear a level that matters.

And I want a trigger that says the move is ready to go.

And later today at 3 p.m. Eastern…

We’re hosting a free LIVE training on the most powerful breakout trigger we know.

It’s a specific breakout pattern that has repeatedly flagged huge moves…

One that was ranked #1 in both bull and bear markets by the researcher who literally wrote the book on chart patterns.

And it has helped flag moves like:

  • 163% in seven weeks on Rhythm Pharmaceuticals…
  • 270% in 10 weeks on Nine Energy Service…
  • 177% in just 11 days on Tuniu…
  • And 148% in only two days on Iris Energy.

During today’s session, we’ll show you exactly what the pattern looks like…

What has to happen before it triggers…

How to trade it…

And some of the strongest setups forming in the market right now.

Click here to guarantee your seat for today’s free LIVE training at 3 p.m. ET if you haven’t yet.

P.S. One quick heads-up before today’s session – you won’t see me when you log in.

Instead, our analyst Shawn Beecher will be leading the training.

Shawn is a seasoned trader, analyst, and financial professional with more than 20 years of experience. He even ran one of America’s largest brokers before joining the Traders Agency team.

Trust me – you’ll be in good hands.

P.P.S. If you’re planning to attend on a mobile device, make sure you download the presentation app now so you don’t miss anything when it starts. See you there.

iOS: apps.apple.com/us/app/goto/id1465614785
Android: play.google.com/store/search?q=goto&c=apps

Customer Story of the Day

“I'm not someone that usually leaves reviews, however, if I could give more stars I absolutely would!

I am currently enrolled in two of their courses. I knew NOTHING about the stock market when I joined back in March after seeing Ross on The Cartier Family YouTube Channel.

Ross and Jean have rather quickly taught me how to navigate the market. They are so patient with 'newbies' like me and have eagerly answered my questions with demonstrations.

I would highly recommend this down to earth and knowledgeable team to anyone that is on the fence about joining. Just take the leap and watch your wallet grow!”

Embrace the surge,

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Ross Givens

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Ross Givens

Written by

Ross GivensChief Market Strategist

Ross Givens is a veteran trader with over 15 years of experience and a former VP at a major Wall Street investment bank. Specializing in small-cap stocks and momentum-driven plays, Ross identifies high-probability setups before they hit the mainstream. As Lead Strategist at Traders Agency, he has guided hundreds of successful trades and developed multiple flagship publications.

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