Very Rare Market Shift

Hey, Ross here:

Investors have been making an unusual shift beneath the surface of this market.

But you wouldn’t know the extent of it from the S&P 500 alone.

Take a look.

Chart of the Day

This chart compares two things: where investors are putting their money, and how far the S&P 500 has fallen from its high.

Each dot shows those two things at one point in time.

The farther left a dot sits, the more money flows favored defensive sectors like staples and utilities over sectors like tech.

The vertical axis tells us where the S&P was sitting relative to its high at that time.

Zero at the top means the S&P 500 was at its high. A reading of minus 10% means it was 10% below that high.

Now look at the red dots in the top-left corner.

They show money flows strongly favoring defensive sectors – while the S&P 500 was still less than 5% below its high.

In other words, times where investors were leaning toward safety even though the index hadn’t fallen much.

That is a RARE combination – appearing only about 4% of the time over the past ten years.

And it’s happening right now.

Meanwhile, as this next chart shows…

Plenty of stocks have been moving in opposite directions beneath that index.

This chart shows whether S&P 500 stocks tend to rise and fall together.

Basically, the more black bars we see on the left side of zero…

The more stocks are moving in opposite directions from each other.

Over the past year, about 40% of stock pairs have tended to move in opposite directions – far more than the average (which can be seen by the red bars).

So the first chart shows money favoring defensive sectors while the index stays near its high.

The second shows just how differently individual stocks have been moving.

I explain what that means below.

Insight of the Day

A “sleepy” sideways market can actually be rapidly shifting beneath the surface.

The S&P 500 has spent almost three months chopping sideways.

It’s easy to look at that and think nothing is happening.

But the index adds up gains and losses.

It doesn’t show you how much money is moving between stocks.

When one group rises while another falls, those moves can cancel out.

The index goes nowhere even as the winners and losers change.

That’s why a flat market can still be a painful one if you own the wrong stocks.

And why waiting for the S&P to break out can mean missing moves already underway elsewhere.

The shift toward defensive sectors gives us a clue about where investors have been turning.

But it also raises a bigger question.

Are those stocks taking over as the market’s next leaders?

Or are investors seeking shelter before a broader selloff?

That distinction changes which stocks I want to own – and how much risk I’m willing to take.

And those are the decisions I help my Black Ops Trading Club members work through every week.

Where are the buying creating opportunities – and where is the selling telling us to be careful?

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Customer Story of the Day

"My experience with Trader's Agency has been stellar.

Customer Service called and we discussed the various trading groups.

The group I am currently subscribed, and others I will consider in the near future.

Ross Givens is amazing and I listen to his webinars every day! Looking forward to the Insiders Edge!!!”

Embrace the surge,

Ross Givens