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Ross Givens

Stock Trader & Educator

Inflation, the Fed, and What It All Means (Market Update from Charles Green)

Charles Green here, Senior Market Analyst here at Traders Agency.

Here’s today Market Pulse 360.

Market Pulse 360 for September 14, 2023

The Consumer Price Index (3.7% Y/Y) for August that was reported yesterday and Producer Price Index reported today were slightly higher by 0.6%, but this had minimal effect on the market. The reports were essentially benign, and the futures market is up again this morning.

However, like the market, inflation direction does not go in a straight line. Because of the recent slightly higher inflation reports for August, it’s likely the markets will continue to be concerned about inflation, making the last mile to the Fed’s target 2% inflation rate challenging.

We’ve come down from an inflation rate of 9.1% last year to 3.7% today, and the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator (Personal Consumption Expenditure) reported last month was also lower than expected.

The last percentage point down in inflation is proving to be the most stubborn. Because of this, the Fed may raise another .25% this month and next month, and rates are likely to remain “higher for long,” as the Fed puts it.

What does this mean for the market?

More volatility and a slower speed, grinding up. To be sure, the direction is up with numerous catalysts that will improve earnings for companies, especially with the impact of AI, going forward in the near future!

After a tough August and slow September so far, the NASDAQ appears to be forming a reverse-head-and-shoulders pattern, which is a bullish sign it will likely make another attempt to conquer NASDAQ 14,000 resistance. This will be key to watch; then we can mount a sustainable move up.

There is also a lot of buzz around the newest AI play: ARM, which has its IPO today. This could also provide some positive sentiment as ARM is expected to perform very well out the gate today!

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A Bit More About Me

My specialty is understanding financial markets and the drivers that influence longer-term direction. I’ve been an active trader focusing primarily on stocks for over 20 years.

I’ve also:

  1. Been an adjunct finance professor for nearly 20 years
  2. Worked as a financial consultant with Merrill Lynch managing millions of dollars 
  3. Earned a Master of Science Degree in International Business and Finance from Georgetown University and a Bachelor in Arts Degree in International Studies from George Mason University.
  4. Spent 14 years as a Marine (I enlisted at age 17) traveling all around the world

My education, work and life experience gives me a broad view of the world, financial markets, and life in general that informs my trading and investment decisions. 

My passion is helping others to take advantage of the best market opportunities to achieve their financial goals.  

This gives me the greatest satisfaction, and it’s the reason why I continue to teach in the classroom and outside of it today with every activity in which I engage. I believe that I succeed only if clients succeed.  

I am a very unlikely success story. And this is only because I believe that anything is possible with the right knowledge, focus, and winning mentality! When you have that, success is just a matter of time.  

Charles Green
Senior Market Analyst, Traders Agency

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