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The Fed Shifts (Market Update from Charles Green)

Charles Green here, Senior Market Analyst here at Traders Agency.

Here’s today Market Pulse 360.

Market Pulse 360 for May 16, 2023

Most market participants believe the Fed will not continue to raise interest rates (effectively a pause). But this will not be crystal clear until the next Fed meeting on June 14th, despite the new language used during the last meeting on May 3rd, stating he would raise interest rates “if warranted.” 

This is a significant change from “continue to increase” from previous Fed announcements.

Because “if warranted” is not definitive, markets have been stuck in a range with sideways movement without a catalyst to take it up to a new level. 

All the data for the past year has consistently shown a downtrend in inflation, even weekly claims for unemployment have increased. 

Talk about Congress not raising the debt ceiling and recession (from interest record rate increases and a credit crunch caused by recent bank failures) has also overshadowed any good news on Q1 earnings released over the past few weeks and big stock buybacks.

We may have a mild recession that will not derail the economy  (in fact, we had a mild recession in Q1 and Q2 of 2022 and nobody even noticed it). The recession talk is overblown, just like the “bank crisis,” and we’ve never had a recession with extremely low unemployment and a structural shortage of labor. 

On a technical (above 200-day moving average) and fundamental basis (Fed pause), the market is not in bad shape. 

Just the opposite is true; it has demonstrated incredible resilience.

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A Bit More About Me

My specialty is understanding financial markets and the drivers that influence longer-term direction. I’ve been an active trader focusing primarily on stocks for over 20 years.

I’ve also:

  • Been an adjunct finance professor for nearly 20 years
  • Worked as a financial consultant with Merrill Lynch managing millions of dollars 
  • Earned a Master of Science Degree in International Business and Finance from Georgetown University and a Bachelor in Arts Degree in International Studies from George Mason University.
  • Spent 14 years as a Marine (I enlisted at age 17) traveling all around the world

My education, work and life experience gives me a broad view of the world, financial markets, and life in general that informs my trading and investment decisions. 

My passion is helping others to take advantage of the best market opportunities to achieve their financial goals.  

This gives me the greatest satisfaction, and it’s the reason why I continue to teach in the classroom and outside of it today with every activity in which I engage. I believe that I succeed only if clients succeed.  

I am a very unlikely success story. And this is only because I believe that anything is possible with the right knowledge, focus, and winning mentality! When you have that, success is just a matter of time.  

Charles Green
Senior Market Analyst, Traders Agency

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