Eli Lilly Lifts 2026 Revenue Outlook by $5.5 Billion as Zepbound and Mounjaro Demand Outpaces Forecasts

Eli Lilly raised the midpoint of its full-year 2026 revenue guidance by $5.5 billion on Thursday, pointing to stronger-than-expected demand for its diabetes and obesity treatments Mounjaro and Zepbound. The Indianapolis drugmaker now expects full-year revenue of $91.0 billion to $92.0 billion, up from its previous range of $85 billion to $87 billion, according to Lilly's third-quarter earnings release distributed via PR Newswire and confirmed by Yahoo Finance.

Third-Quarter Results Top Estimates

Lilly reported third-quarter revenue of $24.4 billion, which Yahoo Finance said topped the Wall Street consensus average estimate of $22.5 billion, according to Bloomberg data. Based on those two figures, the quarter's revenue exceeded consensus by roughly $1.9 billion ($24.4 billion minus $22.5 billion), a gap we calculate from the reported numbers.

The company also updated its full-year adjusted earnings-per-share guidance to a range of $35.00 to $36.00, down slightly from the prior range of $35.50 to $36.50, Lilly said in its release, as reported by CNBC. Lilly attributed the shift to a $4.07-per-share underlying increase in operating performance that was more than offset by $4.57 per share in acquired in-process research and development charges tied to third-quarter business-development activity. Netting those two figures ($4.07 minus $4.57) produces a decrease of roughly $0.50 per share at the midpoint, our calculation based on the figures Lilly disclosed, which aligns with the half-dollar drop in the midpoint of the EPS range.

Lilly's release also noted that approximately $900 million of the quarter's revenue reflected one-time benefits, primarily $410 million from Jardiance sales-based milestones, with the company stating no further such milestones remain, along with favorable adjustments to rebate and discount estimates.

Zepbound and Mounjaro Outpace Analyst Expectations

Heading into the print, analysts polled by StreetAccount had expected Mounjaro worldwide sales of $10.10 billion, including $4.79 billion in U.S. revenue, according to CNBC, which reported that Lilly's third-quarter results surpassed those estimates. For Zepbound, StreetAccount-polled analysts had projected $5.09 billion in global sales, including $4.99 billion from the U.S., according to CNBC, while CNBC's Investing Club cited a consensus estimate of $5.05 billion. Those reports did not specify Lilly's exact reported sales totals for either medicine.

Lilly executives also highlighted strength in Foundayo, the company's oral obesity medicine. CFO Lucas Montarces told analysts on the earnings call, as reported by CNBC, that total U.S. prescriptions and new patients for Foundayo doubled quarter-over-quarter, and that roughly four in ten patients starting an oral obesity medicine now choose Foundayo.

Regulatory and Pipeline Milestones

Alongside the financial update, Lilly's release detailed a string of regulatory approvals during the quarter: FDA clearance of Mounjaro to reduce cardiovascular risk in adults with type 2 diabetes, approval of Onswik, a once-weekly basal insulin for type 2 diabetes, approval of Inluriyo in combination with Verzenio for adults with ER-positive, HER2-negative, ESR1-mutated advanced or metastatic breast cancer, and an expanded indication for Jaypirca in adults with untreated chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma.

On the pipeline side, Lilly's release cited positive topline Phase 3 results from a head-to-head trial of retatrutide against Ozempic 2 mg in type 2 diabetes patients, Phase 3 data for Ebglyss in moderate-to-severe hand and foot atopic dermatitis, and Phase 2 results for EloraTZP in adults with obesity and type 2 diabetes, with Phase 3 trials for EloraTZP slated to begin in the fourth quarter of 2026. Separately, Yahoo Finance reported that Lilly plans to file for FDA approval of retatrutide, its next-generation weight-loss candidate, in the first quarter of next year.

Dealmaking Continues

Lilly's release confirmed the company completed its acquisition of AtaiBeckley during the third quarter to advance therapies for treatment-resistant depression and other mental health conditions. Subsequent to quarter end, Lilly completed the acquisition of Merida Biosciences to pursue treatments for serious autoimmune and allergic diseases, a deal also noted by CNBC, which described Lilly as converting its profits into a dealmaking spree.

Analyst Reaction and Share Price Move

CNBC's Investing Club raised its price target on Lilly to $1,500 from $1,300 while reiterating its "2" rating following the results. Shares climbed on the news, though outlets reported differing intraday magnitudes: CNBC reported a roughly 9% gain, Yahoo Finance reported a jump of as much as 8%, and CNBC's Investing Club reported a rise of more than 6% to roughly $1,370 per share, which it said put the stock on track for a fresh record close, taking out its prior high of $1,306.69 set on October 22.

Market Growth Potential and Competitive Dynamics

CEO Dave Ricks told CNBC he estimates only 3% to 10% of eligible patients in the U.S. currently access obesity care, a gap he characterized as leaving dramatic room for the market to expand. Ricks also said, per CNBC's Investing Club report, that more than half a million people have filled a prescription for a Lilly medicine through the Medicare Bridge program, which CNBC's Investing Club said expands access to 20 million seniors, and that seven in ten new Bridge patients are starting on a Lilly drug.

Looking further ahead, Lilly executives offered an early view on 2027, telling analysts on the call, as reported by CNBC's Investing Club, that they expect the broader GLP-1 market to see sustained volume growth that offsets ongoing price headwinds. Lilly's own release attributed lower realized prices outside the U.S. primarily to Mounjaro's addition to China's National Reimbursement Drug List, a dynamic that could continue to weigh on international per-unit pricing even as volumes rise. The commentary suggests that Lilly's growth outlook rests on continued patient uptake rather than price gains, an interpretation drawn from the company's own characterization of volume-driven expectations rather than a guarantee of future results.

Bottom Line

Lilly's $5.5 billion guidance increase and third-quarter beat reflect demand for its GLP-1 franchise that has, according to multiple outlets, outpaced analyst models built around StreetAccount and FactSet consensus figures. Regulatory approvals across diabetes, oncology, and insulin products, combined with pipeline progress on retatrutide and EloraTZP, broaden the base of potential future growth drivers beyond Mounjaro and Zepbound alone. At the same time, management's own framing of 2027 expectations, built on volume growth offsetting price pressure abroad, signals that sustaining this trajectory will depend on continued patient access expansion rather than pricing power, a dynamic investors will likely track closely in coming quarters.