ASML Raises Low End of 2026 Sales Guidance to €44-45 Billion, Says AI Demand Will Outstrip Supply in 2027 and 2028

ASML reported third-quarter net sales of €11.7 billion and net income of €5.0 billion, according to the company's own release, and used the results to raise the floor of its 2026 full-year guidance while warning that demand for its chipmaking equipment will outrun planned supply in 2027 and 2028, according to CNBC and Seeking Alpha.

The Dutch lithography maker — which CNBC reports is the only company in the world producing extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines, the key tool used by chipmakers such as TSMC for the most advanced semiconductors — said it now expects AI-driven demand to exceed supply in both 2027 and 2028, according to Seeking Alpha and CNBC.

Third-Quarter Results Topped Estimates

Per a dataset compiled by CNBC referencing LSEG consensus, ASML's net sales of €11.66 billion came in slightly below the €11.72 billion analysts expected, but net profit of €4.96 billion beat the €4.1 billion consensus forecast. The company's own GlobeNewswire release rounded those figures to roughly €11.7 billion in net sales and €5.0 billion in net income.

Guidance Raised for the Third Time This Year

ASML also raised the lower end of its 2026 sales forecast. The company now expects full-year net sales of €44 billion to €45 billion, up from a previous lower end of €43 billion, CNBC reported. By CNBC's account, this is the third guidance update of the year, following a second increase in July. Comparing those two reported figures, the prior €43 billion floor sits about 2.3% below the new €44 billion floor ((43 − 44) ÷ 44 × 100 = −2.3%), a difference of €1 billion — an arithmetic comparison of the reported numbers rather than a figure stated by ASML.

For the fourth quarter, CNBC reported that ASML guided to net sales of €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion, with the upper end above the LSEG consensus estimate of €14.2 billion.

Demand Visibility Stretching to 2028, 2029 and Beyond

The more striking signal from the quarter was management's characterization of demand running ahead of planned capacity. Seeking Alpha reported that ASML said AI-driven demand for its equipment will exceed supply in 2027 and 2028, prompting the company to explore additional capacity expansion, while CNBC reported that CEO Christophe Fouquet said current supply planned for those two years will not fully meet customer demand and that ASML is "investigating ways" to increase 2028 capacity beyond the 30% increase it had previously forecast. In a press release quoted by CNBC, Fouquet said: "Our customers continue to increase their short- and medium-term equipment demand forecasts with us, driven primarily by their views on the size and duration of AI-related investments... In light of their demand visibility, some customers are expressing an interest in placing orders with us for 2029 and even 2030." CNBC also reported that Samsung and TSMC committed during the quarter to using ASML's High NA EUV machines, the next-generation tool analysts see as key to the company's future growth, and that ASML still expects China to account for 20% of total business, while remaining restricted from selling EUV and some DUV tools there. Bottom line, as interpretation tied to the reported figures above: the higher guidance floor and the stated 2027-28 shortfall suggest a business currently limited by capacity rather than orders, though ASML has not published revenue targets for 2027 or 2028 and the capacity review is unresolved. CNBC reported ASML shares were around 2% higher in early European trade after the results and have rallied 56% so far this year.